LEADER 07597nam 22007574a 450 001 9910961763003321 005 20251116141033.0 010 $a9786610185979 010 $a9780309173407 010 $a030917340X 010 $a9781280185977 010 $a128018597X 010 $a9780309593199 010 $a0309593190 010 $a9780585057866 010 $a0585057869 035 $a(CKB)110986584752670 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000195779 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11189421 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000195779 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10131782 035 $a(PQKB)11746301 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3376214 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3376214 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10055215 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL18597 035 $a(OCoLC)923262071 035 $a(Perlego)4736276 035 $a(BIP)48275055 035 $a(EXLCZ)99110986584752670 100 $a19990310d1999 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aMaking climate forecasts matter /$fPaul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors ; Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cNational Academy Press$dc1999 215 $axii, 175 p. $cill 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9780309064750 311 08$a0309064759 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 142-159) and index. 327 $aMaking Climate Forecasts Matter -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER -- Summary -- POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society -- CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY -- Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being -- When Climate Becomes Hazardous -- Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability -- The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts -- STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK -- 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- WEATHER AND CLIMATE -- HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE -- The Weather Forecasting Paradigm -- What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting? -- Why Is Climate Predictable? -- How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously? -- How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models? -- Which Quantities Are Forecast? -- How Are the Forecasts Evaluated? -- How Good Are the Forecasts? -- Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction -- TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE -- From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities -- Uses of ENSO Nowcasts -- Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution -- Using ENSO Forecasts -- Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting -- Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts -- The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators -- Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge -- FINDINGS -- 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation -- COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS -- Agriculture -- Fishery Management -- Forests and Other Ecosystems -- Water Supply and Flood Management -- Human Health -- Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors -- INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance -- Emergency Preparedness and Response. 327 $aMarket Mechanisms -- FINDINGS -- 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful -- USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE -- RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS -- Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley -- ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996 -- The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems -- INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS -- Beliefs About Weather and Climate -- Human Information Processing and Climate Information -- Organizational Responses to New Information -- Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission -- General Principles for Designing Information Programs -- Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs -- FINDINGS -- 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS -- A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability -- Current Scientific Capability -- Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems -- Research Based on Observations of Decision Making -- Simulations of Decision Making -- Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability -- ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide? -- A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts -- Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts -- Simulations of Climate Forecast Value -- Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- FINDINGS -- 6 Scientific Priorities -- FINDINGS -- Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation -- The Potential of Climate Forecasts -- Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- General -- SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS -- Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information. 327 $aImproved Dissemination of Forecast Information -- Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts -- The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts -- References -- About the Authors -- Index. 330 $aEl Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change. 517 3 $aClimate forecasts 606 $aClimatic changes$xSocial aspects 606 $aWeather forecasting$xSocial aspects 606 $aLong-range weather forecasts$xSocial aspects 615 0$aClimatic changes$xSocial aspects. 615 0$aWeather forecasting$xSocial aspects. 615 0$aLong-range weather forecasts$xSocial aspects. 676 $a551.63 701 $aStern$b Paul C.$f1944-$01609213 701 $aEasterling$b William E$01811507 712 02$aNational Research Council (U.S.).$bPanel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910961763003321 996 $aMaking climate forecasts matter$94363406 997 $aUNINA