Public Debt Dynamics : : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks / / Fuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif

• Autore: Hasanov Fuad
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (29 p.)
• Disciplina: 336.34
• Soggetto topico: Debts, Public; Inflation (Finance); Econometrics; Exports and Imports; Inflation; Macroeconomics; Public Finance; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General; Price Level; Deflation; Fiscal Policy; Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models; Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt; International Lending and Debt Problems; Public finance & taxation; International economics; Econometrics & economic statistics; Public debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Vector autoregression; Fiscal stance; Prices; External debt; Econometric analysis; Fiscal policy; Debts, External
• Soggetto geografico: United States
• Altri autori: CherifReda
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock ; 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A ; A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B
• Sommario/riassunto: We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.
• Titolo autorizzato: Public Debt Dynamics
• ISBN: 1-4755-9375-9; 1-4755-6554-2
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910820495703321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/230