LEADER 06102oam 22013814 450 001 9910820495703321 005 20240402045615.0 010 $a1-4755-9375-9 010 $a1-4755-6554-2 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278811 035 $a(EBL)1606993 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939842 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11489722 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939842 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10939182 035 $a(PQKB)10432131 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606993 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606993 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627032 035 $a(OCoLC)870245052 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012230 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012230 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278811 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPublic Debt Dynamics : $eThe Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks /$fFuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (29 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-4127-9 311 $a1-4755-1055-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock 327 $a3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A 327 $aA2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B 330 3 $aWe study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/230 606 $aDebts, Public 606 $aInflation (Finance) 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aState Space Models$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aDebt sustainability analysis$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aFiscal stance$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aExternal debt$2imf 606 $aEconometric analysis$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aDebts, External$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aDebts, Public. 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aState Space Models 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aDebt sustainability analysis 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aFiscal stance 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aExternal debt 615 7$aEconometric analysis 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aDebts, External 676 $a336.34 700 $aHasanov$b Fuad$01595841 701 $aCherif$b Reda$01645381 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910820495703321 996 $aPublic Debt Dynamics$93992473 997 $aUNINA