Public Debt Dynamics : : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks / / Fuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif
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| Autore: |
Hasanov Fuad
|
| Titolo: |
Public Debt Dynamics : : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks / / Fuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif
|
| Pubblicazione: | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
| Edizione: | 1st ed. |
| Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (29 p.) |
| Disciplina: | 336.34 |
| Soggetto topico: | Debts, Public |
| Inflation (Finance) | |
| Debt Management | |
| Debt sustainability analysis | |
| Debt | |
| Debts, External | |
| Deflation | |
| Diffusion Processes | |
| Dynamic Quantile Regressions | |
| Dynamic Treatment Effect Models | |
| Econometric analysis | |
| Econometrics & economic statistics | |
| Econometrics | |
| Exports and Imports | |
| External debt | |
| Fiscal Policy | |
| Fiscal policy | |
| Fiscal stance | |
| Inflation | |
| International economics | |
| International Lending and Debt Problems | |
| Macroeconomics | |
| National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General | |
| Price Level | |
| Prices | |
| Public debt | |
| Public finance & taxation | |
| Public Finance | |
| Sovereign Debt | |
| State Space Models | |
| Time-Series Models | |
| Vector autoregression | |
| Soggetto geografico: | United States |
| Altri autori: |
CherifReda
|
| Note generali: | Description based upon print version of record. |
| Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| Nota di contenuto: | Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock |
| 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A | |
| A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B | |
| Sommario/riassunto: | We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. |
| Titolo autorizzato: | Public Debt Dynamics |
| ISBN: | 1-4755-9375-9 |
| 1-4755-6554-2 | |
| Formato: | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
| Record Nr.: | 9910820495703321 |
| Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
| Opac: | Controlla la disponibilità qui |
Serie:
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/230