How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? : the case of school enrollment in PROGRESA / / prepared by Fabian Bornhorst

• Autore: Bornhorst Fabian <1976->
• Pubblicazione: [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept., 2009
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 35 p. : ill
• Disciplina: 339.4;339.46
• Soggetto topico: School attendance - Mexico - Evaluation - Econometric models; Economic assistance, Domestic - Mexico - Evaluation - Econometric models; Poor - Mexico - Evaluation - Econometric models
• Note generali: "September 2009."
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Ex Ante Evaluation: Theory -- A. A Model of Occupational Choice -- B. Estimation and Identification -- C. Impact Simulation -- III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results -- A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector -- B. Estimation of the Choice Model -- C. Impact Simulation -- IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis -- A. Pre-Program Differences -- B. Difference Estimation -- V. Comparison of Results and Discussion -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- VII. References -- VIII. Appendix -- A. Key Elements of PROGRESA -- B. Data Description -- C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals -- D. Bootstrap Mechanism -- Tables -- 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income -- 2: Reported Status -- 3: Sample Means -- 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation -- 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings -- 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model -- 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1) -- 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1) -- 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=0.5) -- 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme -- 11: Estimated Transition Matrix -- 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys -- 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls -- 14: Difference Estimator: Boys -- 15: Difference Estimator: Girls -- 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K -- 17: Transition to Secondary School -- Figures -- 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator -- 2: Simulated effect and D estimate.
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.
• Titolo autorizzato: How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques
• ISBN: 1-4623-3155-6; 1-4518-7334-4; 9786612843976; 1-4527-3392-9; 1-282-84397-4
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910812018503321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/187.