LEADER 05486oam 22010574 450 001 9910812018503321 005 20240402051657.0 010 $a1-4623-3155-6 010 $a1-4518-7334-4 010 $a9786612843976 010 $a1-4527-3392-9 010 $a1-282-84397-4 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055336 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001477286 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11853358 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477286 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11449746 035 $a(PQKB)11392108 035 $a(OCoLC)539139614 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608807 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009187 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055336 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aHow Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA /$fFabian Bornhorst 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a35 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"September 2009." 311 $a1-4519-1759-7 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Ex Ante Evaluation: Theory -- A. A Model of Occupational Choice -- B. Estimation and Identification -- C. Impact Simulation -- III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results -- A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector -- B. Estimation of the Choice Model -- C. Impact Simulation -- IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis -- A. Pre-Program Differences -- B. Difference Estimation -- V. Comparison of Results and Discussion -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- VII. References -- VIII. Appendix -- A. Key Elements of PROGRESA -- B. Data Description -- C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals -- D. Bootstrap Mechanism -- Tables -- 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income -- 2: Reported Status -- 3: Sample Means -- 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation -- 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings -- 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model -- 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1) -- 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1) -- 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=0.5) -- 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme -- 11: Estimated Transition Matrix -- 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys -- 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls -- 14: Difference Estimator: Boys -- 15: Difference Estimator: Girls -- 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K -- 17: Transition to Secondary School -- Figures -- 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator -- 2: Simulated effect and D estimate. 330 3 $aThis paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/187 606 $aSchool attendance$zMexico$xEvaluation$xEconometric models 606 $aEconomic assistance, Domestic$zMexico$xEvaluation$xEconometric models 606 $aPoor$zMexico$xEvaluation$xEconometric models 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aDemography$2imf 606 $aEducation: General$2imf 606 $aWages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General$2imf 606 $aLabor Economics: General$2imf 606 $aAggregate Factor Income Distribution$2imf 606 $aEconomics of the Elderly$2imf 606 $aEconomics of the Handicapped$2imf 606 $aNon-labor Market Discrimination$2imf 606 $aEducation$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aPopulation & demography$2imf 606 $aWages$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aAging$2imf 606 $aLabor economics$2imf 606 $aPopulation aging$2imf 607 $aMexico$2imf 615 0$aSchool attendance$xEvaluation$xEconometric models. 615 0$aEconomic assistance, Domestic$xEvaluation$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPoor$xEvaluation$xEconometric models. 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aDemography 615 7$aEducation: General 615 7$aWages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General 615 7$aLabor Economics: General 615 7$aAggregate Factor Income Distribution 615 7$aEconomics of the Elderly 615 7$aEconomics of the Handicapped 615 7$aNon-labor Market Discrimination 615 7$aEducation 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aPopulation & demography 615 7$aWages 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aAging 615 7$aLabor economics 615 7$aPopulation aging 676 $a339.4;339.46 700 $aBornhorst$b Fabian$01600330 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bFiscal Affairs Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910812018503321 996 $aHow Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA$93923371 997 $aUNINA