Decision-making and action [[electronic resource] /] / Jean-Charles Pomerol

• Autore: Pomerol Jean-Charles
• Pubblicazione: London, : ISTE Ltd.; Hoboken, N.J., : John Wiley & Sons, c2012
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (287 p.)
• Disciplina: 519.5/42; 519.542; 620.1126
• Soggetto topico: Statistical decision; Decision making
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Decision-Making and Action; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Introduction; Chapter 1. What is a Decision, or What Does Decision Theory Have to Teach Us?; 1.1. Actions and events; 1.2. Probabilities; 1.3. Expected utility; 1.4. Subjective probabilities and rationality of the decision; 1.5. Caveats and recommendations; 1.5.1. Distinction between actions and events; 1.5.2. Distinction between decisions and results; 1.5.3. Expectancy-based reasoning; 1.5.4. Identification of all the probabilities and all the possible events.; Chapter 2. Scenarios and Conditional Probabilities ; 2.1. Scenarios2.2. Compound probabilities; 2.3. Scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.4. Decision tree; 2.5. Scenarios, information and pragmatics; 2.6. Pursuance of the scenarios and the ""just one more push""; 2.7. Conditional probabilities and accidents; 2.8. Caveats and recommendations; 2.8.1. Robustness of the result; 2.8.2. Updating the scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.8.3. Slight probabilities; 2.8.4. Re-evaluation of decisions; 2.8.5. Knowing how to lose ; Chapter 3. The Process of Decision-Making and its Rationality, or What Does Artificial Intelligence Have to Teach Us?3.1. A decision as a problem; 3.2. Decision table; 3.3. The general process of decision-making; 3.4. Case-based reasoning; 3.5. The Olympian point-of-view, and H. Simon's view; 3.6. Information; 3.7. Limited rationality; 3.8. Heuristics; 3.9. Cognitive limitation; 3.10. Feedback on rationality in decisions; 3.11. Caveats and recommendations; 3.11.1. Be imaginative; 3.11.2. Stay on top of the problem and of time; 3.11.3. Filter the information; 3.11.4. Take a retrospective view ; 3.11.5. Be reactive rather than optimal3.11.6. Constantly re-evaluate your objectives; Chapter 4. Intuition, Emotion, Recognition and Reasoning or, What Does the Neurobiology of Decision-Making Have to Teach Us?; 4.1. Introduction; 4.2. Animal ""decision""; 4.3. Recognition-primed decision; 4.4. The brain and emotion; 4.5. Short-term, long-term; 4.6. The Bayesian brain; 4.7. Caveats and recommendations; 4.7.1. Beware of the emotions generated by recognition of decisional patterns; 4.7.2. Structure the knowledge; 4.7.3. The colors of the projection ; 4.7.4. Introduce learning into recognition-based learning systemsChapter 5. Decision-Making in the Presence of Conflicting Criteria, or What Does a Multicriterion Decision Aid Have to Teach Us?; 5.1. Preference structures; 5.2. Multicriterion decision aid; 5.3. Weighted sum aggregation; 5.4. Other aggregation methods; 5.5. Aggregation of votes; 5.6. Social choice and collective decision; 5.7. Individual reactions to multicriterion decision-making; 5.8. Constraints and multicriterion decision-making in organizations; 5.9. Caveats and recommendations ; 5.9.1. Finding a compromise between the different Pareto optima
• Sommario/riassunto: Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action.This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? H
• Titolo autorizzato: Decision-making and action
• ISBN: 1-118-56169-4; 1-299-18711-0; 1-118-58809-6; 1-118-58806-1
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910141495103321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: ISTE