LEADER 05153nam 2200649 a 450 001 9910141495103321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-118-56169-4 010 $a1-299-18711-0 010 $a1-118-58809-6 010 $a1-118-58806-1 035 $a(CKB)2670000000327638 035 $a(EBL)1120644 035 $a(OCoLC)827207668 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000831537 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11512008 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000831537 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10880836 035 $a(PQKB)11204816 035 $a(OCoLC)827947144 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1120644 035 $a(PPN)183670310 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000327638 100 $a20120724d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDecision-making and action /$fJean-Charles Pomerol 210 $aLondon $cISTE Ltd. ;$aHoboken, N.J. $cJohn Wiley & Sons$dc2012 215 $a1 online resource (287 p.) 225 1 $aISTE 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-84821-410-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. 327 $aCover; Decision-Making and Action; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Introduction; Chapter 1. What is a Decision, or What Does Decision Theory Have to Teach Us?; 1.1. Actions and events; 1.2. Probabilities; 1.3. Expected utility; 1.4. Subjective probabilities and rationality of the decision; 1.5. Caveats and recommendations; 1.5.1. Distinction between actions and events; 1.5.2. Distinction between decisions and results; 1.5.3. Expectancy-based reasoning; 1.5.4. Identification of all the probabilities and all the possible events.; Chapter 2. Scenarios and Conditional Probabilities 327 $a2.1. Scenarios2.2. Compound probabilities; 2.3. Scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.4. Decision tree; 2.5. Scenarios, information and pragmatics; 2.6. Pursuance of the scenarios and the ""just one more push""; 2.7. Conditional probabilities and accidents; 2.8. Caveats and recommendations; 2.8.1. Robustness of the result; 2.8.2. Updating the scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.8.3. Slight probabilities; 2.8.4. Re-evaluation of decisions; 2.8.5. Knowing how to lose 327 $aChapter 3. The Process of Decision-Making and its Rationality, or What Does Artificial Intelligence Have to Teach Us?3.1. A decision as a problem; 3.2. Decision table; 3.3. The general process of decision-making; 3.4. Case-based reasoning; 3.5. The Olympian point-of-view, and H. Simon's view; 3.6. Information; 3.7. Limited rationality; 3.8. Heuristics; 3.9. Cognitive limitation; 3.10. Feedback on rationality in decisions; 3.11. Caveats and recommendations; 3.11.1. Be imaginative; 3.11.2. Stay on top of the problem and of time; 3.11.3. Filter the information; 3.11.4. Take a retrospective view 327 $a3.11.5. Be reactive rather than optimal3.11.6. Constantly re-evaluate your objectives; Chapter 4. Intuition, Emotion, Recognition and Reasoning or, What Does the Neurobiology of Decision-Making Have to Teach Us?; 4.1. Introduction; 4.2. Animal ""decision""; 4.3. Recognition-primed decision; 4.4. The brain and emotion; 4.5. Short-term, long-term; 4.6. The Bayesian brain; 4.7. Caveats and recommendations; 4.7.1. Beware of the emotions generated by recognition of decisional patterns; 4.7.2. Structure the knowledge; 4.7.3. The colors of the projection 327 $a4.7.4. Introduce learning into recognition-based learning systemsChapter 5. Decision-Making in the Presence of Conflicting Criteria, or What Does a Multicriterion Decision Aid Have to Teach Us?; 5.1. Preference structures; 5.2. Multicriterion decision aid; 5.3. Weighted sum aggregation; 5.4. Other aggregation methods; 5.5. Aggregation of votes; 5.6. Social choice and collective decision; 5.7. Individual reactions to multicriterion decision-making; 5.8. Constraints and multicriterion decision-making in organizations; 5.9. Caveats and recommendations 327 $a5.9.1. Finding a compromise between the different Pareto optima 330 $a Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action.This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? H 410 0$aISTE 606 $aStatistical decision 606 $aDecision making 615 0$aStatistical decision. 615 0$aDecision making. 676 $a519.5/42 700 $aPomerol$b Jean-Charles$0935693 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910141495103321 996 $aDecision-making and action$92107726 997 $aUNINA