Saudi Arabia : : Selected Issues

• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2015
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (86 pages) : illustrations (color)
• Soggetto topico: Monetary policy - Saudi Arabia; Banks and Banking; Investments: Energy; Inflation; Labor; Macroeconomics; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Demand and Supply of Labor: General; Price Level; Deflation; Electric Utilities; Labour; income economics; Investment & securities; Finance; Public finance & taxation; Energy prices; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Labor markets; Electricity; Commodities; Labor market; Economic policy; Electric utilities; Employment; Economic theory
• Soggetto geografico: Saudi Arabia
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover -- CONTENTS -- ASSESSING THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND INTEREST RATE SPILLOVERS FOR SAUDI ARABIA -- A. What Does History Tell us About the Impact of Oil Price Declines and Interest Rate Increases on the Saudi Economy? -- B. Econometric Analysis of the Oil and Interest Rate Links in the Saudi Economy -- C. Model Simulations of the Impact of Lower Oil Prices on the Saudi Economy -- D. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Oil Price and Saudi Public Debt, 1993-2014 -- 2. Saudi Policy Rates & -- Fed Funds Target Rate, 1992-2015 -- 3. Oil Revenue Declines During the Three Historical Episodes -- 4. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1982-86 Decline in Oil Prices -- 5. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1998-99 Decline in Oil Prices -- 6. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 2008-09 Decline in Oil Prices -- 7. Oil Price and Interest Rates, 1975-2015 -- 8. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1988-89 Tightening of U.S. Monetary Policy -- 9. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1994-95 Tightening of U.S. Monetary Policy -- 10. Impact of Oil Prices on Real and Financial Variables -- 11. Impact of Fed Funds Rate on Real and Financial Variables -- 12. Macro-Financial Feedback Loops in Saudi Arabia -- 13. Impact of Lower Oil Prices in Saudi Arabia-Results from G20MOD -- TABLE -- 1. Dependence on Oil, 2005-15 -- ANNEX -- I. A Summary of the IMF's G20MOD Module of FSGM -- ASSESSING THE RESILIENCE OF SAUDI BANKS TO WEAKER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS -- A. Background -- B. Bank balance sheet quality under weaker economic conditions -- References -- BOX -- 1. The Resilience of Saudi Banks to Deposit Withdrawals -- FIGURES -- 1. Key Economic Indicators in Saudi Arabia, 1995-2014 -- 2. NPL Ratio and its Key Determinants: Historical and Scenario I. ; 3. NPL Ratio and its Key Determinants: Historical and Scenarios I-III -- TABLES -- 1. Determinants of Bank NPLs in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Effects of Economic Scenarios on the Banking Sector -- COUNTERCYCLICAL MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Oil Prices Drive Real and Financial Cycles -- C. Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in Saudi Arabia -- D. Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies-International Experience -- E. Policy Recommendations and Conclusions -- References -- BOXES -- 1. Countercyclical Capital and Provisioning Ratios in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Financial Soundness Indicators in Commodity Exporting Countries -- FIGURES -- 1. Transmission of Oil Price Shock: Results from a VAR Analysis -- 2. Oil, Real, and Financial Cycles -- 3. Financial Soundness Indicators, 2000-14 -- ANNEXES -- I. SAMA Policy Toolkit for the Banking and Insurance Sectors -- II. Countercyclical Use of Macroprudential Tools, 2013 -- III. Issues in the Implementation of Macroprudential Policies -- ENERGY PRICE REFORM IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Calculating Cost and Impact of Low Energy Prices -- B. Current Energy Initiatives in Saudi Arabia -- C. Cross Country Experience with Energy Price Reform -- D. Macroeconomic Impact of Energy Price Reform -- E. Conclusions/Key Takeaways for Saudi Arabia -- References -- BOXES -- 1. The Electricity Sector in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Automatic Pricing Mechanism -- FIGURES -- 1. Implicit Cost Estimates for Gasoline -- 2. Implications of Low Energy Prices -- 3. Co2 Emission Shares and Intensity, 2010 -- 4. Share of Benefits from Low Energy Prices to the Bottom 40 Percent of the Population -- 5. Saudi Arabia: Government Expenditure and Implicit Fuel Cost -- 6. Event Study: Impact on Domestic Price Inflation from Energy Price Reforms -- 7. Energy Intensity by Country, 2000 and 2010 -- TABLES. ; 1. Retail Prices of Gasoline and Diesel -- 2. Implied Energy Cost for Saudi Arabia in 2014 -- 3. Saudi Arabia: Trends in Oil Consumption and Exports -- 4. Energy Price Reform in the GCC -- MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF LABOR REFORMS IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Background: The Employment-Growth Paradox -- C. Recent Labor Market Reforms and Their Initial Impact -- D. Potential Macroeconomic Implications of Labor Reforms -- E. Fiscal Implications -- F. Impact on Wages, Inflation and Real Exchange Rate -- G. Productivity and growth -- H. Policy Recommendations and Conclusions -- References -- BOX -- 1. Recent Labor Initiatives -- FIGURES -- 1. Saudi Arabia: Total Population by Age, 1980 and 2015 -- 2. Employment of Saudi Nationals -- 3. Labor Market Segmentation -- 4. Public Spending on Education, 2004-14 -- 5. Labor Market Response to Recent Initiatives -- 6. Decomposition of Growth in Labor Market Entrants -- 7. Unemployment and Government Wage Bill in 2020 -- 8. Employment and Wages of Nationals in the Private Sector -- 9. Impulse Response of Inflation -- 10. Labor Productivity, 2000-13 -- 11. Labor Productivity in Saudi Arabia, 1980-2014.
• Sommario/riassunto: This Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact.
• Titolo autorizzato: Saudi Arabia
• ISBN: 1-5135-5955-9; 1-5135-2256-6; 1-5135-2520-4
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910808603503321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ; ; No. 2015/286