LEADER 09125oam 22012614 450 001 9910808603503321 005 20240430212730.0 010 $a1-5135-5955-9 010 $a1-5135-2256-6 010 $a1-5135-2520-4 035 $a(CKB)3820000000019196 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4395464 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11187369 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL881173 035 $a(OCoLC)946309332 035 $a(IMF)1SAUEA2015002 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4395464 035 $a(EXLCZ)993820000000019196 100 $a20020129d2015 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aSaudi Arabia : $eSelected Issues 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2015. 215 $a1 online resource (86 pages) $cillustrations (color) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 311 $a1-5135-0507-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover -- CONTENTS -- ASSESSING THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND INTEREST RATE SPILLOVERS FOR SAUDI ARABIA -- A. What Does History Tell us About the Impact of Oil Price Declines and Interest Rate Increases on the Saudi Economy? -- B. Econometric Analysis of the Oil and Interest Rate Links in the Saudi Economy -- C. Model Simulations of the Impact of Lower Oil Prices on the Saudi Economy -- D. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Oil Price and Saudi Public Debt, 1993-2014 -- 2. Saudi Policy Rates & -- Fed Funds Target Rate, 1992-2015 -- 3. Oil Revenue Declines During the Three Historical Episodes -- 4. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1982-86 Decline in Oil Prices -- 5. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1998-99 Decline in Oil Prices -- 6. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 2008-09 Decline in Oil Prices -- 7. Oil Price and Interest Rates, 1975-2015 -- 8. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1988-89 Tightening of U.S. Monetary Policy -- 9. Economic and Financial Developments Around the 1994-95 Tightening of U.S. Monetary Policy -- 10. Impact of Oil Prices on Real and Financial Variables -- 11. Impact of Fed Funds Rate on Real and Financial Variables -- 12. Macro-Financial Feedback Loops in Saudi Arabia -- 13. Impact of Lower Oil Prices in Saudi Arabia-Results from G20MOD -- TABLE -- 1. Dependence on Oil, 2005-15 -- ANNEX -- I. A Summary of the IMF's G20MOD Module of FSGM -- ASSESSING THE RESILIENCE OF SAUDI BANKS TO WEAKER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS -- A. Background -- B. Bank balance sheet quality under weaker economic conditions -- References -- BOX -- 1. The Resilience of Saudi Banks to Deposit Withdrawals -- FIGURES -- 1. Key Economic Indicators in Saudi Arabia, 1995-2014 -- 2. NPL Ratio and its Key Determinants: Historical and Scenario I. 327 $a3. NPL Ratio and its Key Determinants: Historical and Scenarios I-III -- TABLES -- 1. Determinants of Bank NPLs in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Effects of Economic Scenarios on the Banking Sector -- COUNTERCYCLICAL MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Oil Prices Drive Real and Financial Cycles -- C. Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in Saudi Arabia -- D. Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies-International Experience -- E. Policy Recommendations and Conclusions -- References -- BOXES -- 1. Countercyclical Capital and Provisioning Ratios in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Financial Soundness Indicators in Commodity Exporting Countries -- FIGURES -- 1. Transmission of Oil Price Shock: Results from a VAR Analysis -- 2. Oil, Real, and Financial Cycles -- 3. Financial Soundness Indicators, 2000-14 -- ANNEXES -- I. SAMA Policy Toolkit for the Banking and Insurance Sectors -- II. Countercyclical Use of Macroprudential Tools, 2013 -- III. Issues in the Implementation of Macroprudential Policies -- ENERGY PRICE REFORM IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Calculating Cost and Impact of Low Energy Prices -- B. Current Energy Initiatives in Saudi Arabia -- C. Cross Country Experience with Energy Price Reform -- D. Macroeconomic Impact of Energy Price Reform -- E. Conclusions/Key Takeaways for Saudi Arabia -- References -- BOXES -- 1. The Electricity Sector in Saudi Arabia -- 2. Automatic Pricing Mechanism -- FIGURES -- 1. Implicit Cost Estimates for Gasoline -- 2. Implications of Low Energy Prices -- 3. Co2 Emission Shares and Intensity, 2010 -- 4. Share of Benefits from Low Energy Prices to the Bottom 40 Percent of the Population -- 5. Saudi Arabia: Government Expenditure and Implicit Fuel Cost -- 6. Event Study: Impact on Domestic Price Inflation from Energy Price Reforms -- 7. Energy Intensity by Country, 2000 and 2010 -- TABLES. 327 $a1. Retail Prices of Gasoline and Diesel -- 2. Implied Energy Cost for Saudi Arabia in 2014 -- 3. Saudi Arabia: Trends in Oil Consumption and Exports -- 4. Energy Price Reform in the GCC -- MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF LABOR REFORMS IN SAUDI ARABIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Background: The Employment-Growth Paradox -- C. Recent Labor Market Reforms and Their Initial Impact -- D. Potential Macroeconomic Implications of Labor Reforms -- E. Fiscal Implications -- F. Impact on Wages, Inflation and Real Exchange Rate -- G. Productivity and growth -- H. Policy Recommendations and Conclusions -- References -- BOX -- 1. Recent Labor Initiatives -- FIGURES -- 1. Saudi Arabia: Total Population by Age, 1980 and 2015 -- 2. Employment of Saudi Nationals -- 3. Labor Market Segmentation -- 4. Public Spending on Education, 2004-14 -- 5. Labor Market Response to Recent Initiatives -- 6. Decomposition of Growth in Labor Market Entrants -- 7. Unemployment and Government Wage Bill in 2020 -- 8. Employment and Wages of Nationals in the Private Sector -- 9. Impulse Response of Inflation -- 10. Labor Productivity, 2000-13 -- 11. Labor Productivity in Saudi Arabia, 1980-2014. 330 3 $aThis Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2015/286 606 $aMonetary policy$zSaudi Arabia 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy$2imf 606 $aDemand and Supply of Labor: General$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aElectric Utilities$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aEnergy prices$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aFuel prices$2imf 606 $aLabor markets$2imf 606 $aElectricity$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aLabor market$2imf 606 $aEconomic policy$2imf 606 $aElectric utilities$2imf 606 $aEmployment$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 607 $aSaudi Arabia$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy 615 7$aDemand and Supply of Labor: General 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aElectric Utilities 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aEnergy prices 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aFuel prices 615 7$aLabor markets 615 7$aElectricity 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aLabor market 615 7$aEconomic policy 615 7$aElectric utilities 615 7$aEmployment 615 7$aEconomic theory 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910808603503321 996 $aSaudi Arabia$91178170 997 $aUNINA