Betting Against the Crowd [[electronic resource] ] : A Complex Systems Approach / / by Yair Neuman

• Autore: Neuman Yair
• Pubblicazione: Cham : , : Springer Nature Switzerland : , : Imprint : Springer, , 2024
• Edizione: 1st ed. 2024.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (172 pages)
• Disciplina: 530.1
• Soggetto topico: System theory; Statistical Mechanics; Economics - Psychological aspects; Sports - Sociological aspects; Complex Systems; Behavioral Finance; Sport Sociology
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Preface -- Reference -- Summary -- Contents -- Part I Foundations of Crowd's Dynamics -- 1 Navigating the Collective: Insights into Crowd Behavior and Strategies for the Individual -- From the Painted Bird to the Celebrating Crowd -- The Importance of Interactions -- The Individual and the Collective -- Constraints and Opportunities -- The Importance of Learned Ignorance -- The Dancing Crowd -- Scientific Thinking in the Absence of Truth -- The Rebel's Perspective -- The Structure of the Book -- References -- 2 Signs of Collective Dynamics: Insights from the Stock Market Collapse -- Introduction -- Ponzi and the Pyramids -- How to Recognize Bad Omens -- Always Look for the Rats -- In Sum … -- References -- 3 Entropy, Constraints, and Action: Tools for Short-Term Prediction -- Introduction -- The Lady or the Tiger? -- How to Measure Uncertainty -- The Appropriate Dose of Chaos -- Understanding Constraints -- On the Cognitive Importance of D = 3 -- How a Navy SEAL Uses the Fluctuation Theorem -- In the Midst of Chaos, There Is Opportunity -- Windows of Opportunity: Pockets of Order and Chaos -- References -- 4 Information Thresholds: Navigating Predictive Boundaries -- How Much Information Is Enough? -- Time to Clearance -- The Exponential Decay of Information -- So, How Much Information Do We Need? -- Out of Plato's Cave -- References -- 5 Short-Term Fluctuations Versus Long-Range Trends: Unearthing Investment Opportunities -- Introduction -- Buy-Low-Sell-High (BLSH) -- Betting Against the Crowd -- What Is Your Expected Value? -- The Kelly Criterion -- Playing with Kelly -- So, Have We Won? -- Simple Models in a Complex World -- Lessons to Be Learned About Betting Against the Crowd -- References -- Part II Case Studies: Political Nationalism, Football, Financial Markets and Armed Conflicts. ; 6 Non-linearity in the Emergence of Political Nationalism: A Lesson from Hungary -- Introduction -- Measuring the Expected and the Observed Levels of Nationalism -- Entropy, Variability, and Non-linearity -- Additivity and Extensivity -- Measuring the Entropy of Political Parties -- What if the Whole Is Different from the Sum of Its Parts? -- References -- 7 Fixed Beliefs and Football Fandom: Unraveling the Dynamics of Collective Optimism -- Introduction -- Optimism and Pessimism in Football -- Cinderella Teams and Hermes' Invisible Hand -- Lady Fortuna's Invisible Hand -- Hermes' Invisible Hand -- "Knowledge Is Safety" -- References -- 8 Contrarian Strategies: Capitalizing on the Limits of Exponential Growth in Financial Markets -- Introduction -- Identifying a Significant Exponential Growth -- Leaving the Ship in Good Time -- Signs of Reversal -- The Experiment -- Betting Against the Herd -- References -- 9 Unraveling the Complexities of Chronic Armed Conflicts: Patterns, Predictability, and Uncertainties -- Can We Learn from the Past? And How Much? -- The Long Memory of a Conflict -- Order Is Never Enough -- Tsallis Entropy, Again -- Discretizing the Dataset -- Predicting the Class of Fatalities -- Predicting Surprise -- Crowds, Conflicts, and Lady Fortuna -- References -- 10 Mentsh Trakht un Got Lakht: Final Lessons in Individuality and Collective Dynamics -- A Final Word -- Reference -- Author Index -- Subject Index.
• Sommario/riassunto: Crowds are misleading, both in their simplicity and in their complexity. On the one hand, they behave according to expected trends; on the other, they present sudden shifts and frantic, unexpected behavior. Therefore, “betting against the crowd,” whether in politics, sports, or finance, requires a deep understanding of the crowd’s dynamics. In this book, Prof. Neuman addresses this challenge by delving into the complexity of crowds. The book involves foundational issues and novel ideas, such as why crowds behave unexpectedly, why betting against the crowd is possible only in short time frames, why is it important to be attentive to suspicious signs that are indicative of the crowd’s behavior, and why the long tail of fatalities in armed conflicts leaves us surprised by blitz attacks of violent mobs. The book combines scientific knowledge, experiments, and accessible, often humorous, exposition. It can be read by anyone with a basic science education who seeks to understand crowds and how one can act within and against them.
• Titolo autorizzato: Betting Against the Crowd
• ISBN: 3-031-52019-X
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910838286203321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II