Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : : Estimation and Back-testing / / Fabio Comelli |
Autore | Comelli Fabio |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - Econometric models
Government securities - Econometric models Banks and Banking Finance: General Investments: Bonds International Finance Forecasting and Simulation Financial Forecasting and Simulation Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Finance Investment & securities Yield curve Sovereign bonds Emerging and frontier financial markets Bond yields Securities markets Financial services Financial institutions Financial markets Interest rates Bonds Financial services industry Capital market |
ISBN |
1-4755-1037-3
1-4755-1431-X |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?
Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent) Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix Tables Table A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001 Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011 |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910786480703321 |
Comelli Fabio | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : : Estimation and Back-testing / / Fabio Comelli |
Autore | Comelli Fabio |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Disciplina | 332.1/52 |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - Econometric models
Government securities - Econometric models Banks and Banking Finance: General Investments: Bonds International Finance Forecasting and Simulation Financial Forecasting and Simulation Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Finance Investment & securities Yield curve Sovereign bonds Emerging and frontier financial markets Bond yields Securities markets Financial services Financial institutions Financial markets Interest rates Bonds Financial services industry Capital market |
ISBN |
1-4755-1037-3
1-4755-1431-X |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?
Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent) Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix Tables Table A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001 Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011 |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910820534503321 |
Comelli Fabio | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis / / Edda Zoli, Silvia Sgherri |
Autore | Zoli Edda |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
Altri autori (Persone) | SgherriSilvia |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Risk management - European Union countries - Econometric models Finance: General Financial Risk Management Investments: General Investments: Bonds Industries: Financial Services General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Financial Crises Financial Institutions and Services: General Investment & securities Macroeconomics Finance Economic & financial crises & disasters Sovereign bonds Return on investment Securities markets Financial crises Financial sector Bonds Saving and investment Capital market Financial services industry |
ISBN |
1-4623-9410-8
1-4527-4905-1 1-4518-7369-7 9786612844263 1-282-84426-1 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788225503321 |
Zoli Edda | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis / / Edda Zoli, Silvia Sgherri |
Autore | Zoli Edda |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
Disciplina | 332.042 |
Altri autori (Persone) | SgherriSilvia |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Risk management - European Union countries - Econometric models Finance: General Financial Risk Management Investments: General Investments: Bonds Industries: Financial Services General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Financial Crises Financial Institutions and Services: General Investment & securities Macroeconomics Finance Economic & financial crises & disasters Sovereign bonds Return on investment Securities markets Financial crises Financial sector Bonds Saving and investment Capital market Financial services industry |
ISBN |
1-4623-9410-8
1-4527-4905-1 1-4518-7369-7 9786612844263 1-282-84426-1 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Euro Area Sovereign Risk and the Crisis: Stylized Facts -- III. Dissecting Common Risk -- IV. Explaining Developments in Euro Area Sovereign Risk During The Crisis -- V. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Explaining Common Factor's Dynamics -- 2. Panel Estimates -- 3. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates, January 2003-January 2009 -- 4. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates, January 2003-March 2009 -- Figures -- 1. Selected Euro Area Sovereign Spreads, June 2008-09 -- 2. Dispersion in Euro Area Sovereign Spreads, January 2001-June 2009 -- 3. Headline Deficit: Contributions from Automatic Stabilizers and Discretionary Measures -- 4. Up-front Government Financing Need to Shore Up the Financial Sector -- 5. From Credit Risk to Sovereign Risk: The Case of Ireland -- 6. Sovereign Spreads and Financial EDFs in Euro Area Countries -- 7. Estimated Common Component in Sovereign Spreads -- 8. A Preliminary Look at the Determinants of Spreads Behavior -- 9. Contributions to the Change in Spreads, January 2003-January 2009 -- 10. Contributions to the Change in Spreads, January 2003-March 2009 -- References. |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910828554103321 |
Zoli Edda | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish : : How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability / / Ashoka Mody |
Autore | Mody Ashoka |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
Descrizione fisica | 39 p |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Financial crises
Business cycles Finance: General Investments: Bonds Public Finance Industries: Financial Services Fiscal Policy International Financial Markets Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Financial Institutions and Services: General General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation Public finance & taxation Finance Investment & securities Financial sector Public debt Sovereign bonds Competition Financial sector risk Economic sectors Financial institutions Financial markets Financial sector policy and analysis Financial services industry Debts, Public Bonds Financial risk management |
ISBN |
1-4623-1137-7
9786612843235 1-4519-8625-4 1-282-84323-0 1-4518-7255-0 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788334903321 |
Mody Ashoka | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish : : How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability / / Ashoka Mody |
Autore | Mody Ashoka |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
Descrizione fisica | 39 p |
Disciplina | 338.192356 |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Financial crises
Business cycles Finance: General Investments: Bonds Public Finance Industries: Financial Services Fiscal Policy International Financial Markets Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Financial Institutions and Services: General General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation Public finance & taxation Finance Investment & securities Financial sector Public debt Sovereign bonds Competition Financial sector risk Economic sectors Financial institutions Financial markets Financial sector policy and analysis Financial services industry Debts, Public Bonds Financial risk management |
ISBN |
1-4623-1137-7
9786612843235 1-4519-8625-4 1-282-84323-0 1-4518-7255-0 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Data and Econometric Approach -- III. Domestic Finance Matters -- IV. The Phases of the Crisis -- A. From Subprime Onset to Bear Stearns -- B. After Bear Stearns -- C. After the Anglo Irish Nationalization -- D. Monthly Variations in Spreads -- V. Country Differences -- A. Following Bear Stearns: Spotlight on Countries' Loss of Competitiveness -- B. The Role of Public Debt -- VI. Interpreting the Findings -- VII. Conclusions -- References -- Tables -- 1. Weekly Changes in Spreads (basis points) -- 2. Does Domestic Finance Matter? -- 3. Domestic Finance Does Matter -- 4. Phases of the Crisis -- 5. Explaining the Jump in Spreads After the Anglo Irish Nationalization -- 6. Phases as Seen Through Monthly Changes in Spreads -- 7. Subprime to Bear Stearns: Limited Differentiation Across Countries -- 8. Post Bear Stearns: Country Differentiation By Loss of Competitiveness -- 9. The Role of Public Debt -- 10. Post-Bear Stearns Country Variations: Monthly Data -- Figures -- 1. Trends and Dispersion of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads -- 2. Sovereign Spreads and Prospects of the Financial Sector -- 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate Appreciation from January 2003 to July 2008 -- 4. Correlation Between Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Sovereign Spreads -- 5. Eurozone: Evolving Real GDP Consensus Forecasts for 2009 -- 6. Change in Growth Projections for 2009 as F-Ratio Changed During 2008 -- 7. Do Sovereign Spreads Anticipate GDP Growth? -- 8. Regimes of High and Low Sovereign Spreads. |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817629703321 |
Mody Ashoka | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Government Bonds and their Investors : : What Are the Facts and Do they Matter? / / Jochen Andritzky |
Autore | Andritzky Jochen |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (32 p.) |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities
Securities Investments: General Investments: Bonds Public Finance Portfolio Choice Investment Decisions Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Investment & securities Public finance & taxation Sovereign bonds Public debt Bonds Financial institutions Bond yields Financial instruments Debts, Public |
ISBN |
1-4755-9432-1
1-4755-7005-8 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Dataset; III. What are the Facts?; IV. Does the Investor Base Matter?; A. Background; B. How Is the Investor Base Related to Yields?; C. Do Portfolio Shifts Affect Expected Bond Returns?; V. Conclusions; References |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910785526303321 |
Andritzky Jochen | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Government Bonds and their Investors : : What Are the Facts and Do they Matter? / / Jochen Andritzky |
Autore | Andritzky Jochen |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (32 p.) |
Disciplina | 332.152 |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities
Securities Investments: General Investments: Bonds Public Finance Portfolio Choice Investment Decisions Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Investment & securities Public finance & taxation Sovereign bonds Public debt Bonds Financial institutions Bond yields Financial instruments Debts, Public |
ISBN |
1-4755-9432-1
1-4755-7005-8 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Dataset; III. What are the Facts?; IV. Does the Investor Base Matter?; A. Background; B. How Is the Investor Base Related to Yields?; C. Do Portfolio Shifts Affect Expected Bond Returns?; V. Conclusions; References |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910822473203321 |
Andritzky Jochen | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies / / Tigran Poghosyan |
Autore | Poghosyan Tigran |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities - Econometric models
Rate of return - Econometric models Cointegration Banks and Banking Investments: Bonds Macroeconomics Public Finance 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Fiscal Policy Investment & securities Finance Public finance & taxation Bond yields Yield curve Sovereign bonds Public debt Fiscal stance Financial institutions Financial services Fiscal policy Bonds Interest rates Debts, Public |
ISBN |
1-4755-7979-9
1-4755-4279-8 1-283-94768-4 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields: Review of Existing Studies; A. Theoretical Considerations; B. Empirical Evidence; III. Empirical Methodology and Data; A. Empirical Methodology; B. Data; IV. Estimation Results; A. Baseline Specification; B. Robustness Checks; C. Are Financial Markets "Overreacting"?; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Description of Variables and their Sources; 2. Descriptive Statistics; 3. Panel Unit Root Tests; 4. Baseline Regressions; 5. Robustness Checks; Figures
1. Selected Euro area Economies: Real 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields2. Selected Euro Area Economies: Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 3. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (first half of 2012); 4. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (1999-2009, average) |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910779591503321 |
Poghosyan Tigran | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies / / Tigran Poghosyan |
Autore | Poghosyan Tigran |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
Disciplina | 338.29102 |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities - Econometric models
Rate of return - Econometric models Cointegration Banks and Banking Investments: Bonds Macroeconomics Public Finance 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Fiscal Policy Investment & securities Finance Public finance & taxation Bond yields Yield curve Sovereign bonds Public debt Fiscal stance Financial institutions Financial services Fiscal policy Bonds Interest rates Debts, Public |
ISBN |
1-4755-7979-9
1-4755-4279-8 1-283-94768-4 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields: Review of Existing Studies; A. Theoretical Considerations; B. Empirical Evidence; III. Empirical Methodology and Data; A. Empirical Methodology; B. Data; IV. Estimation Results; A. Baseline Specification; B. Robustness Checks; C. Are Financial Markets "Overreacting"?; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Description of Variables and their Sources; 2. Descriptive Statistics; 3. Panel Unit Root Tests; 4. Baseline Regressions; 5. Robustness Checks; Figures
1. Selected Euro area Economies: Real 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields2. Selected Euro Area Economies: Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 3. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (first half of 2012); 4. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (1999-2009, average) |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910810606903321 |
Poghosyan Tigran | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|