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Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The aims and methods of the study -- 1.2 The plan and character of the book -- PART I: Prior Assumptions and Methodological Preliminaries -- 2 The Facts to be Explained -- 2.1 Conspectus of the whole period, 1920-95 -- 2.2 The measurement of trends and fluctuations -- 2.3 Comparison of the three main phases since 1920 in the UK and other countries -- 2.4 Profits, factor shares, and real wages -- 3 The Causal Structure of the Economy -- 3.1 The main routes of causation in the economy -- 3.2 How growing supply creates growing demand -- 3.3 The explanation of unemployment -- 3.4 Implications for later chapters -- Appendix A3.1 The theoretical debate on the features of the economic system that allow the possibility of unemployment -- Appendix A3.2 The High Real Wage theory of unemployment -- 4 Supply and Demand Influences on the Rate of Growth -- 4.1 Some main facts about rates of growth -- 4.2 Explanations of variations in the rate of growth -- 4.3 Conclusions about rates of growth: supply versus demand factors as determinents of output growth -- Appendix A4.1 Notes on growth accounting, and two other studies of growth -- Appendix A4.2 Estimates of the growth of six countries' output and exports of manufactures, 1870-1970 -- 5 Shocks and Responses in Major Fluctuations -- 5.1 The economy's response to shocks -- 5.2 Indicators of demand shocks and tests of their ability to explain fluctuations -- 5.3 The causation of fluctuations: a first survey -- Appendix A5 New estimates of fiscal policy impact -- PART II: Case Studies of Five Major Recessions -- 6 The Two Interwar Recessions -- 6.1 Overview of the interwar period -- 6.2 The 1920-1 recession and its aftermath -- 6.3 The Great Depression: the world and the United States, 1929-33.
6.4 The world depression and the UK depression -- 6.5 Economic recovery in Britain, 1932-40 -- 6.6 Theoretical conclusions -- Appendix A6.1 A critique of Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States -- Appendix A6.2 The gold standard as a cause of the Great Depression: a critique of Eichengreen's Golden Fetters -- Appendix A6.3 A model of the international transmission of the US Depression -- Appendix A6.4 List of statistical sources -- 7 The Long Interval without Major Recession, 1945-73 -- 7.1 Overview of the period -- 7.2 Reasons for faster growth and high demand -- 7.3 Minor fluctuations of the period -- 7.4 Was the Golden Age doomed anyway? -- 7.5 The behaviour of the economy: conclusions from the 1945-73 experience -- 8 The Two OPEC Recessions (1973-5 and 1979-82) -- 8.1 Background issues: political developments and the oil price shocks -- 8.2 A demand-side explanation, of the OPEC recessions -- 8.3 Assessment of the 1970s experience -- Appendix A8 The inflationary surges of the 1970s -- 9 The Credit Expansion of the Late 1980s and the Recession of the Early 1990s -- 9.1 Summary of thesis: the interrelation between real and financial disturbances -- 9.2 Boom and recession in other countries -- 9.3 Boom and recession in the UK -- 9.4 What the 1989 recession contributes to our ideas about the behaviour of the economy -- 9.5 Postscript: the resumption of growth, 1992-5 -- PART III: Conclusions -- 10 The Theoretical Model: The Economy's Behaviour to Major Fluctuations -- 10.1 A picture of an economy lacking some elements of self-adjustment -- 10.2 The nature of major recessions -- 10.3 The shape of major recessions and the role of expectations (or confidence) -- Appendix A10 A formal account of interactions during recessions -- 11 The Causation of Major Recessions: Summary and Discussion of Empirical Findings.
11.1 Estimation of constant-employment growth rates: the loss resulting from major recessions -- 11.2 Explanation of major recessions in terms of exogenous demand shocks -- 11.3 Case studies of the major recessions: summary -- 11.4 The long period without major recessions (1945-73): possible lessons -- 11.5 Concluding remarks on public debt, and on the predictability of major recessions -- Appendix A11 The National Debt since World War II -- 12 Are Recurrent Major Recessions Inevitable? -- 12.1 Background issues: theory -- politics -- inflation -- 12.2 The traditional tools of macroeconomic policy -- 12.3 Possible policies to counter major recessions -- 12.4 The chances of avoiding major recessions in future -- References -- General Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Author Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- V -- W -- Y.
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Major recessions [[electronic resource] ] : Britain and the world, 1920-1995 / / Christopher Dow
