External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico : : How Important are U.S. Factors? / / Sebastian Sosa |
Autore | Sosa Sebastian |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (33 p.) |
Disciplina | 338.542 |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Business cycles - Mexico - Econometric models
Exports and Imports Macroeconomics Industries: General Trade: General Macroeconomics: Production Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Energy: Demand and Supply Prices International economics Economic growth Industrial production Exports Imports Business cycles Oil prices Industries |
ISBN |
1-4623-5277-4
1-4527-7229-0 1-282-84055-X 1-4518-6961-4 9786612840555 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)
4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions) 7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies 10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models 14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade? VI. Concluding Remarks |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788239503321 |
Sosa Sebastian
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico : : How Important are U.S. Factors? / / Sebastian Sosa |
Autore | Sosa Sebastian |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (33 p.) |
Disciplina | 338.542 |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Business cycles - Mexico - Econometric models
Exports and Imports Macroeconomics Industries: General Trade: General Macroeconomics: Production Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Energy: Demand and Supply Prices International economics Economic growth Industrial production Exports Imports Business cycles Oil prices Industries |
ISBN |
1-4623-5277-4
1-4527-7229-0 1-282-84055-X 1-4518-6961-4 9786612840555 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)
4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions) 7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies 10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models 14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade? VI. Concluding Remarks |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910818880803321 |
Sosa Sebastian
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy : : Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography / / Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Helge Berger |
Autore | Ehrmann Michael |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (42 p.) |
Altri autori (Persone) |
FratzscherMarcel
BergerHelge |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Monetary policy - European Union countries
Banks and Banking Inflation Industries: General Labor Monetary Policy Central Banks and Their Policies Information and Market Efficiency Event Studies Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects Price Level Deflation Banks Depository Institutions Micro Finance Institutions Mortgages Macroeconomics: Production Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search Banking Macroeconomics Labour income economics Central bank policy rate Central bank autonomy Industrial production Financial services Central banks Prices Production Unemployment Interest rates Banks and banking Industries |
ISBN |
1-4623-3064-9
1-4527-0172-5 1-283-51757-4 9786613830029 1-4519-0837-7 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References"" |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788404003321 |
Ehrmann Michael
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area : : The Impact of the Financial Crisis |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2011 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (42 p.) |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - European Union countries
Debts, Public - European Union countries Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Euro area Financial Risk Management Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Public Finance Industries: General Truncated and Censored Models Switching Regression Models Threshold Regression Models 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' International Lending and Debt Problems International Finance: Other International Financial Markets Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Price Level Deflation Financial Crises Monetary Systems Standards Regimes Government and the Monetary System Payment Systems Macroeconomics: Production Macroeconomics Public finance & taxation Economic & financial crises & disasters Monetary economics Public debt Financial crises Currencies Industrial production Prices Money Production Debts, Public Industries |
ISBN |
1-4623-1435-X
1-4552-9019-X 1-283-55406-2 9786613866516 1-4552-1253-9 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Database and Stylized Facts; A. Database; B. Stylized Facts; 1. Changes in the Structure of Sovereign Borrowing; III. Econometric Analysis and Results; A. Determinants of Total Issuance; 2A. Determinants of Total Debt Issuance; 2B. Determinants of Total Debt Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity; B. Determinants of Issuance Composition; 3A. Determinants of Auction Share in Total Issuance-Censored Tobit Estimation; 3B. Determinants of Auction Share in Total Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity
4A. Determinants of DLTF Issuance-Censored Tobit Estimation4B. Determinants of DLTF Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity; IV. Conclusion; A1. Changes in Total Debt Issuance; A2. Changes in Number of Issues; A3. Changes in Average Size of Issue; A4. Variable Definitions and Sources; Determinants of Total Debt Issuance-Estimated in Levels; References; Footnotes |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910779266403321 |
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2011 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area : : The Impact of the Financial Crisis |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2011 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (42 p.) |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - European Union countries
Debts, Public - European Union countries Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Euro area Financial Risk Management Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Public Finance Industries: General Truncated and Censored Models Switching Regression Models Threshold Regression Models 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' International Lending and Debt Problems International Finance: Other International Financial Markets Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Price Level Deflation Financial Crises Monetary Systems Standards Regimes Government and the Monetary System Payment Systems Macroeconomics: Production Macroeconomics Public finance & taxation Economic & financial crises & disasters Monetary economics Public debt Financial crises Currencies Industrial production Prices Money Production Debts, Public Industries |
ISBN |
1-4623-1435-X
1-4552-9019-X 1-283-55406-2 9786613866516 1-4552-1253-9 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Database and Stylized Facts; A. Database; B. Stylized Facts; 1. Changes in the Structure of Sovereign Borrowing; III. Econometric Analysis and Results; A. Determinants of Total Issuance; 2A. Determinants of Total Debt Issuance; 2B. Determinants of Total Debt Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity; B. Determinants of Issuance Composition; 3A. Determinants of Auction Share in Total Issuance-Censored Tobit Estimation; 3B. Determinants of Auction Share in Total Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity
4A. Determinants of DLTF Issuance-Censored Tobit Estimation4B. Determinants of DLTF Issuance-Exploring Heterogeneity; IV. Conclusion; A1. Changes in Total Debt Issuance; A2. Changes in Number of Issues; A3. Changes in Average Size of Issue; A4. Variable Definitions and Sources; Determinants of Total Debt Issuance-Estimated in Levels; References; Footnotes |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910813814603321 |
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2011 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Investment-Led Growth in China : : Global Spillovers / / Ashvin Ahuja, Malhar Nabar |
Autore | Ahuja Ashvin |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (25 p.) |
Altri autori (Persone) | NabarMalhar |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Investments - China
Economic development - China Investments: Commodities Exports and Imports Industries: General Industries: Manufacturing Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts Comparative Studies of Countries Trade: General Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General Macroeconomics: Production Commodity Markets International economics Manufacturing industries Investment & securities Exports Imports Manufacturing Industrial production Commodities International trade Economic sectors Production Industries Commercial products |
ISBN |
1-4755-2800-0
1-4755-1505-7 1-283-94763-3 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Cover; Contents; I. A Growth Model Increasingly Dependent on Investment; II. Assessing Exposures to Investment-Led Growth in China; III. Effects of An Investment Slowdown in China; IV. Implications of a Hand-off to Consumption; V. Effects of an Investment Slowdown on G20 Macro Indicators; VI. Summary; References; Appendix A; Appendix B |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910779591303321 |
Ahuja Ashvin
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Investment-Led Growth in China : : Global Spillovers / / Ashvin Ahuja, Malhar Nabar |
Autore | Ahuja Ashvin |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (25 p.) |
Disciplina | 332.1;332.1/532 |
Altri autori (Persone) | NabarMalhar |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Investments - China
Economic development - China Investments: Commodities Exports and Imports Industries: General Industries: Manufacturing Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts Comparative Studies of Countries Trade: General Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General Macroeconomics: Production Commodity Markets International economics Manufacturing industries Investment & securities Exports Imports Manufacturing Industrial production Commodities International trade Economic sectors Production Industries Commercial products |
ISBN |
1-4755-2800-0
1-4755-1505-7 1-283-94763-3 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | Cover; Contents; I. A Growth Model Increasingly Dependent on Investment; II. Assessing Exposures to Investment-Led Growth in China; III. Effects of An Investment Slowdown in China; IV. Implications of a Hand-off to Consumption; V. Effects of an Investment Slowdown on G20 Macro Indicators; VI. Summary; References; Appendix A; Appendix B |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910826705703321 |
Ahuja Ashvin
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method / / Marco Marini, Tommaso Di Fonzo |
Autore | Marini Marco |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (22 p.) |
Altri autori (Persone) | Di FonzoTommaso |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Benchmarking (Management)
Managerial accounting Macroeconomics Industries: General Industries: Manufacturing Time-Series Models Dynamic Quantile Regressions Dynamic Treatment Effect Models Diffusion Processes Optimization Techniques Programming Models Dynamic Analysis Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data Data Access General Aggregative Models: General Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General Macroeconomics: Production Manufacturing industries National accounts Manufacturing Industrial production National income Industries |
ISBN |
1-4755-5891-0
1-4755-3464-7 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Denton PFD Benchmarking Method; III. The Enhanced Denton PFD Method for Extrapolation; A. An Approximation of the Enhanced PFD Method; IV. An Example with Artificial Data; Tables; 1. Extrapolation Using Forecast BI Ratios (Example 6.2, QNA Manual, 2001); 2. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison Between the Shortcut and the Analytical Solution; 3. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison with the Indicator Series; 4. Basic Denton PFD vs. Enhanced Denton PFD: MSD of Quarterly Growth Rates
5. Enhanced Denton PFD: Comparison Between the Analytical Solution and the Shortcut Version with Different BI RatiosV. An Application to Real-Life Data; 6. Forecasting Manufacturing Value Added in 2009 Using IPI: a Comparison Between PFD and EPFD; VI. Conclusions; References |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910786483403321 |
Marini Marco
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment / / Ashvin Ahuja, Alla Myrvoda |
Autore | Ahuja Ashvin |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (25 p.) |
Altri autori (Persone) | MyrvodaAlla |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Real estate investment - China
Financial crises - China Exports and Imports Macroeconomics Industries: General Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts Comparative Studies of Countries Trade: General Commodity Markets Metals and Metal Products Cement Glass Ceramics Macroeconomics: Production International economics Commodity prices Exports Imports Metal prices Industrial production Prices International trade Production Metals Industries |
ISBN |
1-4755-7353-7
1-4755-6066-4 1-283-86693-5 1-4755-7515-7 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Modeling the Spillover Effects; III. Domestic Feedback; Table; Table 1. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected China Indicators; IV. Global Spillover; Table 2. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate; Table 3. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Trade Indicators; Table 4. Impacts one year after a 1-standard-deviation exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected Commodity Prices; V. Conclusion
ReferencesAppendix; A: The China-G20 Macro Financial FAVAR; B: Data Transformation and Sources |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910779434203321 |
Ahuja Ashvin
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment / / Ashvin Ahuja, Alla Myrvoda |
Autore | Ahuja Ashvin |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (25 p.) |
Disciplina | 333.30951 |
Altri autori (Persone) | MyrvodaAlla |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Real estate investment - China
Financial crises - China Exports and Imports Macroeconomics Industries: General Investment Capital Intangible Capital Capacity Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts Comparative Studies of Countries Trade: General Commodity Markets Metals and Metal Products Cement Glass Ceramics Macroeconomics: Production International economics Commodity prices Exports Imports Metal prices Industrial production Prices International trade Production Metals Industries |
ISBN |
1-4755-7353-7
1-4755-6066-4 1-283-86693-5 1-4755-7515-7 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Modeling the Spillover Effects; III. Domestic Feedback; Table; Table 1. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected China Indicators; IV. Global Spillover; Table 2. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate; Table 3. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Trade Indicators; Table 4. Impacts one year after a 1-standard-deviation exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected Commodity Prices; V. Conclusion
ReferencesAppendix; A: The China-G20 Macro Financial FAVAR; B: Data Transformation and Sources |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910825202103321 |
Ahuja Ashvin
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
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Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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