Emerging market sovereign bond spreads [[electronic resource] ] : estimation and back-testing / / prepared by Fabio Comelli |
Autore | Comelli Fabio |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, DC, : International Monetary Fund, 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Collana | IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - Econometric models
Government securities - Econometric models |
Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
ISBN |
1-4755-1037-3
1-4755-1431-X |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?
Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent) Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix Tables Table A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001 Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011 |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910461999003321 |
Comelli Fabio | ||
Washington, DC, : International Monetary Fund, 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : : Estimation and Back-testing / / Fabio Comelli |
Autore | Comelli Fabio |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - Econometric models
Government securities - Econometric models Banks and Banking Finance: General Investments: Bonds International Finance Forecasting and Simulation Financial Forecasting and Simulation Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Finance Investment & securities Yield curve Sovereign bonds Emerging and frontier financial markets Bond yields Securities markets Financial services Financial institutions Financial markets Interest rates Bonds Financial services industry Capital market |
ISBN |
1-4755-1037-3
1-4755-1431-X |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?
Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent) Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix Tables Table A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001 Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011 |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910786480703321 |
Comelli Fabio | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : : Estimation and Back-testing / / Fabio Comelli |
Autore | Comelli Fabio |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Disciplina | 332.1/52 |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
State bonds - Econometric models
Government securities - Econometric models Banks and Banking Bond yields Bonds Capital market Emerging and frontier financial markets Finance Finance: General Financial Forecasting and Simulation Financial institutions Financial markets Financial services industry Financial services General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Interest rates Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects International Finance Forecasting and Simulation Investment & securities Investments: Bonds Securities markets Sovereign bonds Yield curve |
ISBN |
1-4755-1037-3
1-4755-1431-X |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?
Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent) Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix Tables Table A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001 Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011 |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910820534503321 |
Comelli Fabio | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies [[electronic resource] /] / Tigran Poghosyan |
Autore | Poghosyan Tigran |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : International Monetary Fund, c2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
Collana | IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities - Econometric models
Rate of return - Econometric models Cointegration |
Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
ISBN |
1-4755-7979-9
1-4755-4279-8 1-283-94768-4 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields: Review of Existing Studies; A. Theoretical Considerations; B. Empirical Evidence; III. Empirical Methodology and Data; A. Empirical Methodology; B. Data; IV. Estimation Results; A. Baseline Specification; B. Robustness Checks; C. Are Financial Markets "Overreacting"?; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Description of Variables and their Sources; 2. Descriptive Statistics; 3. Panel Unit Root Tests; 4. Baseline Regressions; 5. Robustness Checks; Figures
1. Selected Euro area Economies: Real 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields2. Selected Euro Area Economies: Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 3. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (first half of 2012); 4. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (1999-2009, average) |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910453112803321 |
Poghosyan Tigran | ||
Washington, D.C., : International Monetary Fund, c2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies / / Tigran Poghosyan |
Autore | Poghosyan Tigran |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities - Econometric models
Rate of return - Econometric models Cointegration Banks and Banking Investments: Bonds Macroeconomics Public Finance 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Fiscal Policy Investment & securities Finance Public finance & taxation Bond yields Yield curve Sovereign bonds Public debt Fiscal stance Financial institutions Financial services Fiscal policy Bonds Interest rates Debts, Public |
ISBN |
1-4755-7979-9
1-4755-4279-8 1-283-94768-4 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields: Review of Existing Studies; A. Theoretical Considerations; B. Empirical Evidence; III. Empirical Methodology and Data; A. Empirical Methodology; B. Data; IV. Estimation Results; A. Baseline Specification; B. Robustness Checks; C. Are Financial Markets "Overreacting"?; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Description of Variables and their Sources; 2. Descriptive Statistics; 3. Panel Unit Root Tests; 4. Baseline Regressions; 5. Robustness Checks; Figures
1. Selected Euro area Economies: Real 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields2. Selected Euro Area Economies: Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 3. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (first half of 2012); 4. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (1999-2009, average) |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910779591503321 |
Poghosyan Tigran | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies / / Tigran Poghosyan |
Autore | Poghosyan Tigran |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
Disciplina | 338.29102 |
Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Government securities - Econometric models
Rate of return - Econometric models Cointegration Banks and Banking Investments: Bonds Macroeconomics Public Finance 'Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models' Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Debt Debt Management Sovereign Debt Fiscal Policy Investment & securities Finance Public finance & taxation Bond yields Yield curve Sovereign bonds Public debt Fiscal stance Financial institutions Financial services Fiscal policy Bonds Interest rates Debts, Public Panel Data Models Spatio-temporal Models |
ISBN |
1-4755-7979-9
1-4755-4279-8 1-283-94768-4 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields: Review of Existing Studies; A. Theoretical Considerations; B. Empirical Evidence; III. Empirical Methodology and Data; A. Empirical Methodology; B. Data; IV. Estimation Results; A. Baseline Specification; B. Robustness Checks; C. Are Financial Markets "Overreacting"?; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Description of Variables and their Sources; 2. Descriptive Statistics; 3. Panel Unit Root Tests; 4. Baseline Regressions; 5. Robustness Checks; Figures
1. Selected Euro area Economies: Real 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields2. Selected Euro Area Economies: Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 3. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (first half of 2012); 4. Selected Euro Area Economies: Comparison of Predicted and Actual Long-Run Real Bond Spreads vis-à-vis Germany (1999-2009, average) |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910810606903321 |
Poghosyan Tigran | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
A primer for risk measurement of bonded debt from the perspective of a sovereign debt manager [[electronic resource] /] / [prepared by] Michael Papaioannou |
Autore | Papaioannou Michael G |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, c2006 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (49 p.) |
Collana | IMF working paper |
Soggetto topico |
Risk - Econometric models
Interest rates - Econometric models Credit - Econometric models Liquidity (Economics) - Econometric models Government securities - Econometric models Debts, Public - Econometric models |
Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
ISBN |
1-4623-1246-2
1-4527-1987-X 1-282-44811-0 9786613821300 1-4519-9197-5 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK""; ""III. MEASUREMENT OF CREDIT RISK""; ""IV. MEASUREMENT OF LIQUIDITY RISK""; ""V. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A SECURITY WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VI. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A PORTFOLIO WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VII. EPILOGUE""; ""YIELD DEFINITIONS""; ""THE VALUE-AT-RISK (VAR) METHODOLOGY""; ""REFERENCES"" |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910464586603321 |
Papaioannou Michael G | ||
[Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, c2006 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager / / Michael Papaioannou |
Autore | Papaioannou Michael |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (49 p.) |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Risk - Econometric models
Interest rates - Econometric models Credit - Econometric models Liquidity (Economics) - Econometric models Government securities - Econometric models Debts, Public - Econometric models Banks and Banking Investments: Bonds Financing Policy Financial Risk and Risk Management Capital and Ownership Structure Value of Firms Goodwill General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Financial services law & regulation Investment & securities Bonds Credit risk Liquidity risk Market risk Exchange rate risk Financial risk management |
ISBN |
1-4623-1246-2
1-4527-1987-X 1-282-44811-0 9786613821300 1-4519-9197-5 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK""; ""III. MEASUREMENT OF CREDIT RISK""; ""IV. MEASUREMENT OF LIQUIDITY RISK""; ""V. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A SECURITY WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VI. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A PORTFOLIO WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VII. EPILOGUE""; ""YIELD DEFINITIONS""; ""THE VALUE-AT-RISK (VAR) METHODOLOGY""; ""REFERENCES"" |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788524703321 |
Papaioannou Michael | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|
A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager / / Michael Papaioannou |
Autore | Papaioannou Michael |
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (49 p.) |
Collana | IMF Working Papers |
Soggetto topico |
Risk - Econometric models
Interest rates - Econometric models Credit - Econometric models Liquidity (Economics) - Econometric models Government securities - Econometric models Debts, Public - Econometric models Banks and Banking Bonds Capital and Ownership Structure Credit risk Exchange rate risk Financial Risk and Risk Management Financial risk management Financial services law & regulation Financing Policy General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) Goodwill Investment & securities Investments: Bonds Liquidity risk Market risk Value of Firms |
ISBN |
1-4623-1246-2
1-4527-1987-X 1-282-44811-0 9786613821300 1-4519-9197-5 |
Formato | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK""; ""III. MEASUREMENT OF CREDIT RISK""; ""IV. MEASUREMENT OF LIQUIDITY RISK""; ""V. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A SECURITY WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VI. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK SENSITIVITY FOR A PORTFOLIO WITH N RISK FACTORS""; ""VII. EPILOGUE""; ""YIELD DEFINITIONS""; ""THE VALUE-AT-RISK (VAR) METHODOLOGY""; ""REFERENCES"" |
Record Nr. | UNINA-9910821268903321 |
Papaioannou Michael | ||
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 | ||
Materiale a stampa | ||
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
|