| Nota di contenuto |
Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Praise for The Future of Antarctica -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient-And Largely Successful -- 1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future? -- 1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios -- 1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach -- 1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics -- 1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics? -- 1.7 What This Book is About -- References -- 2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The 'Antarctic Problem' -- 2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the 'Antarctic Problem' -- 2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences? -- 2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica -- References -- 3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction -- 3.1 Overview -- 3.2 What Are Scenarios? -- 3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios -- 3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict -- 3.5 Plausibility and the 'aha' Moment -- 3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility -- 3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA) -- 3.8 Summary -- References -- 4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques -- 4.3 Framing Before Reframing -- 4.4 Level 1-Define Your Strategic Objectives -- 4.5 Level 2-Identify Your General Approach/es -- 4.6 A Scenario Toolbox -- 4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative -- 4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches -- 4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches -- 4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches -- 4.11 Inductive Approaches -- 4.12 Quantitative approaches -- 4.13 Hybrid approaches -- 4.14 Integrated approaches -- 4.15 Scoping approaches.
4.16 Engagement approaches -- 4.17 Level 3-Select Your Specific Technique/s -- 4.18 The 'Intuitive Logics 2 × 2' Technique -- 4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint -- 4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon -- 4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces -- 4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements -- 4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty -- 4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es -- 4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix -- 4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives -- 4.18.9 Step 9: 'Wind Tunnel Test' Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice -- 4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2-Towards 'IL 5' -- 4.20 Summary -- References -- 5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background -- 5.1 Overview -- 5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics-Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches -- 5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis -- 5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics -- 5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner! -- 5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces -- 5.7 Pulling These Together: The 'Dynamic Signature' of a Driving Force -- 5.8 Nine Themes for Driving Forces -- 5.9 Summary -- References -- 6 Militarisation of Antarctica -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 History of Militarisation in Antarctica -- 6.3 Managing Militarisation Under the Antarctic Treaty 1959 -- 6.4 Traditional Military/Strategic Threats in Antarctica -- 6.5 'Dual-Use' Equipment in Antarctica -- 6.6 Summary -- References -- 7 Antarctic Militarisation: Scenario Analysis -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint -- 7.3 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon -- 7.4 Step 3: Identify Driving Forces of Antarctic Militarisation -- 7.5 Step 4: Classify Driving Forces as Predetermined Elements or Critical Uncertainties.
7.6 Step 5: Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty -- 7.7 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es -- 7.8 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix -- 7.9 Summary -- References -- 8 Antarctic Militarisation: Five Scenarios -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.1.1 Scenario 1: Splendid Isolation -- 8.1.2 Scenario 2: Quarantine -- 8.1.3 Scenario 3: Stealth -- 8.1.4 Scenario 4: Cold War II -- 8.1.5 IL 5: A Fifth Scenario for Antarctic Militarisation -- 8.1.6 Scenario 5: Pressures Managed -- 8.2 Step 9: Wind Tunnel Test Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice -- 8.3 Summary -- Reference -- 9 Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Geopolitics: The Intersection of Power, Authority, and Space -- 9.2.1 Power -- 9.2.2 Military Power -- 9.2.3 Scientific and Logistical Power -- 9.2.4 Authority -- 9.2.5 Space -- 9.3 Antarctica Through a Classical Geopolitical Lens -- 9.3.1 Power and International Law -- 9.3.2 Antarctica and 'Space in Rivalry Between States' -- 9.4 Summary -- References -- 10 Conclusion -- 10.1 Our Objectives -- 10.2 Our Findings: Geopolitical Scenario Analysis -- 10.3 Our Findings: Geopolitical Futures for Antarctica -- References -- Index.
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Frozen empires : an environmental history of the Antarctic Peninsula / / Adrian Howkins
