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Building a science of economics for the real world [[electronic resource] ] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, second session, July 20, 2010
| Building a science of economics for the real world [[electronic resource] ] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, second session, July 20, 2010 |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington : , : U.S. G.P.O., , 2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (iii, 66 pages) |
| Soggetto topico |
Macroeconomics - Mathematical models
Economic forecasting - Econometric models Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Altri titoli varianti | Building a science of economics for the real world |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910703195203321 |
| Washington : , : U.S. G.P.O., , 2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Futures past : economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century / / Ulrich Fritsche, Roman Köster, Laetitia Lenel, editors
| Futures past : economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century / / Ulrich Fritsche, Roman Köster, Laetitia Lenel, editors |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Berlin : , : Peter Lang Publishing, , 2020 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (218 pages) : illustrations |
| Disciplina | 330.0112 |
| Collana | Literatur, Kultur, Ökonomie |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Economic forecasting |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover -- Copyright information -- Contents -- List of Authors -- Introduction -- 1. A Very Short History of Economic Forecasting -- 2. The Social Fabrication of Forecasts: Some Aspects -- 3. This Volume -- References -- Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting 1 -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Historical Record of Economic Forecasting -- 3. Why Do Forecasters Miss Recessions -- 4. Nowcasting Recessions -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s-1970s -- 1. Introduction -- 2. A Tool for "Scientific Marketing": Interwar Consumer Research and Psychological Transfers -- 3. Consumer Expectations and Decision-Making: George Katona and Wartime Attitude Research -- 4. Framing the Affluent Society: Consumer Sentiment Surveys as Behavioral Economics -- 5. Framing and Managing Expectations in the Cold War: More Transatlantic Transfers of Consumer Survey Methodology -- 6. Conclusion -- References -- The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964-1975 -- 1. The Economy as a Separated Sphere -- 2. Future Perspectives for an Economically Underexplored Country -- 3. The Motion Borel: Between Planning and Forecasting -- 4. The Perspektivstudien and the Swiss Economy as a Separated Sphere -- 5. A Switzerland of 10 Million Inhabitants -- References -- The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present -- 1. Introduction: Monetary Policy and the Problems of 'Knowing the Future' -- 2. The Temporalities of Modern Central Banking: Using the Future to Escape the Fetters of the Present -- 3. What 'Futures' Does Future-Oriented Monetary Policy Govern - and How?.
4. Conclusion: Why Standardizing the Future Increases Uncertainties -- References -- Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1. The Field: Economic Forecasters in German-Speaking Countries -- 2. Interaction and the Future -- 2.1. Mental Time Traveling and Foretalk -- 3. Interaction and Economic Forecasting -- 3.1. Interaction and Econometrics -- 3.2. Patterns of External Interaction -- 3.3. Patterns of Internal Interaction -- 4. Emotion and Scientific Reasoning -- 4.1. Emotions in Economic Forecasting -- 4.2. Emotion as Epistemic Resource -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting 1 -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Shifting the Focus from Outcomes to Processes -- 3. Data and Material -- 4. Are Predictions Predictable? Forecasting as a Sequence -- 5. What Is Updating? The Informational Grounds of Forecasts Revisions -- 6. Discussion and Conclusion -- Appendix A: Forecasts Publication Date -- Appendix B: Panel Overview -- References -- Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Survey -- 3. Empirical Results -- 3.1. Responses to Pre-Formulated Statements -- 3.2. Answers to Free Questions -- 3.3. Evidence from Probability Models -- 4. Decoupling of Academia and Macroeconomic Forecasting Camp -- 5. Conclusion -- References. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910418269003321 |
| Berlin : , : Peter Lang Publishing, , 2020 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Incorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart [[electronic resource] /] / prepared by Selim Elekdag and Prakash Kannan
| Incorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart [[electronic resource] /] / prepared by Selim Elekdag and Prakash Kannan |
| Autore | Elekdag Selim |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina | 336.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | KannanPrakash |
| Collana | IMF working paper |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Time-series analysis |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-4623-6888-3
1-4527-4804-7 1-282-84389-3 9786612843891 1-4518-7325-5 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910463991403321 |
Elekdag Selim
|
||
| [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart / / Prakash Kannan, Selim Elekdag
| Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart / / Prakash Kannan, Selim Elekdag |
| Autore | Kannan Prakash |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina | 336.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | ElekdagSelim |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Time-series analysis Asset prices Deflation Derivative securities Economic Forecasting Energy: Demand and Supply Finance Financial Instruments Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Gdp forecasting Inflation Institutional Investors Investments: Options Macroeconomics National income Non-bank Financial Institutions Oil prices Options Pension Funds Price Level Prices |
| ISBN |
9786612843891
9781462368884 1462368883 9781452748047 1452748047 9781282843899 1282843893 9781451873252 1451873255 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910965593203321 |
|
Kannan Prakash
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
| Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina | 336.54 |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Time-series analysis Inflation Investments: Options Macroeconomics Energy: Demand and Supply Prices Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Pension Funds Non-bank Financial Institutions Financial Instruments Institutional Investors Economic Forecasting Finance Oil prices Asset prices GDP forecasting Options National income Derivative securities |
| ISBN |
1-4623-6888-3
1-4527-4804-7 1-282-84389-3 9786612843891 1-4518-7325-5 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788228603321 |
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
