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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) / / Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose
| Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) / / Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose |
| Autore | Laxton Douglas |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 65 p. : ill |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
ScottAlasdair
RoseDavid |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Inflation targeting Inflation Macroeconomics Public Finance Forecasting Labor Economics: General General Aggregative Models: General Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Other Model Applications Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General Labour income economics Economic Forecasting Public finance & taxation Labor National accounts Communications in revenue administration Labor economics National income Prices Revenue |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1440-6
9786612842863 1-282-84286-2 1-4518-7212-7 1-4519-9534-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788338403321 |
Laxton Douglas
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) / / Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose
| Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) / / Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose |
| Autore | Laxton Douglas |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 65 p. : ill |
| Disciplina | 338.102368 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
RoseDavid
ScottAlasdair |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Inflation targeting Communications in revenue administration Deflation Economic Forecasting Forecasting and Other Model Applications Forecasting General Aggregative Models: General Income economics Inflation Labor economics Labor Economics: General Labor Labour Macroeconomics National accounts National income Price Level Prices Public finance & taxation Public Finance Revenue Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1440-6
9786612842863 1-282-84286-2 1-4518-7212-7 1-4519-9534-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Intro -- CONTENTS -- I. Introduction -- II. Developing a Decision-Making Process -- III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime -- IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS -- V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise -- VI. The Core Model -- VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS -- VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS -- Text Figures -- 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process -- 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations -- 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency -- Appendix Figures -- 4. A Possible Reporting Structure -- 5. Links Between Different Databases -- 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism -- 7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom -- Appendix Tables -- 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP -- 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910812022903321 |
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Laxton Douglas
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts / / Allan Timmermann
| An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts / / Allan Timmermann |
| Autore | Timmermann Allan |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (108 p.) |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic development
Economic forecasting - Evaluation International economic relations Exports and Imports Inflation Macroeconomics Forecasting Current Account Adjustment Short-term Capital Movements Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Other Model Applications International economics Economic Forecasting Current account balance Current account GDP forecasting Economic forecasting Balance of payments National income Prices |
| ISBN |
1-4623-9421-3
1-4527-1887-3 1-283-51486-9 1-4519-0855-5 9786613827319 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References"" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788403003321 |
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Timmermann Allan
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts / / Allan Timmermann
| An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts / / Allan Timmermann |
| Autore | Timmermann Allan |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (108 p.) |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic development
Economic forecasting - Evaluation International economic relations Balance of payments Current Account Adjustment Current account balance Current account Deflation Economic Forecasting Economic forecasting Exports and Imports Forecasting and Other Model Applications Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Forecasting Gdp forecasting Inflation International economics Macroeconomics National income Price Level Prices Short-term Capital Movements |
| ISBN |
1-4623-9421-3
1-4527-1887-3 1-283-51486-9 1-4519-0855-5 9786613827319 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References"" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817459903321 |
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Timmermann Allan
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks / / Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee
| Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks / / Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee |
| Autore | Nowak Sylwia |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (15 pages) : illustrations (some color), tables |
| Disciplina | 338.54430973 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | ChatterjeePratiti |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - United States
Exports and Imports Inflation Macroeconomics Forecasting Forecasting and Other Model Applications Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty Business Fluctuations Cycles Current Account Adjustment Short-term Capital Movements Price Level Deflation Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) International economics Economic Forecasting Economic growth Current account balance Economic forecasting Business cycles Balance of payments Prices |
| ISBN |
1-4755-5553-9
1-4755-5556-3 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910155013803321 |
|
Nowak Sylwia
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer
| Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer |
| Autore | Moriyama Kenji |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
| Altri autori (Persone) | NaseerAbdul |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Sudan
Economic forecasting - Sudan Inflation Macroeconomics Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Other Model Applications Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis Prices Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General Economic Forecasting Economic growth Monetary economics Economic forecasting Agricultural prices Cyclical indicators Monetary base Business cycles Money supply |
| ISBN |
1-4623-4063-6
1-4527-3897-1 1-4518-7279-8 9786612843464 1-282-84346-X |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; Figures; 1. Average and Standard Deviation of Inflation, 2000-08; 2. Monthly Inflation (12-Month) in Sudan, January 2000-October 2008; III. Methodology; A. Which Inflation Should Be Forecasted?; 3. Overall Inflation, 2000-08; B. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model; 4. Cumulative Spectral Distribution of Inflation, 2000-08; C. Leading Indicators; 5. Currency Holding and Islamic Dummies, 2005-08; 6. Candidates of Leading Indicators; IV. Results; A. ARMA Model; 7. Actual and Projected Inflation Based on the Estimated ARMA Models
B. Granger Causality Tests for Leading IndicatorsV. Implications-What Can be said from the Estimated Model and the Tests?; A. Can the Estimated Model Explain the Surge of Inflation in 2007 and 2008?; 8. Forecasted Inflation, July 2007-December 2008; 9. Forecast Errors of the Model and Bread Contribution to Inflation, July 2007-October 2008; B. Forecasting Inflation for 2009 and 2010; 10. Forecasted Inflation; 11. Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (4,5), July 2008-December 2010; C. Leading Indicators (Private Sector Credit Growth and Wheat Price Inflation) 12. Oil Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-1013. Wheat Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-10; VI. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Estimated ARMA Model of Inflation; 2. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 2000-08; 3. Granger Causality Tests Between Inflation and Leading Indicators, 2000-08; Appendices; I. The Schwartz Information Criterion; II. Estimated ARMA Model for main Monetary Aggregates; Appendix Tables; A1. Estimated ARMA Model of Broad money, 2000-08; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788332703321 |
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Moriyama Kenji
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer
| Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer |
| Autore | Moriyama Kenji |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
| Disciplina | 338.9624 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | NaseerAbdul |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Sudan
Economic forecasting - Sudan Agricultural prices Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis Business cycles Cyclical indicators Deflation Economic Forecasting Economic forecasting Economic growth Forecasting and Other Model Applications Forecasting Inflation Macroeconomics Monetary base Monetary economics Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General Money and Monetary Policy Money supply Price Level Prices Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
| ISBN |
1-4623-4063-6
1-4527-3897-1 1-4518-7279-8 9786612843464 1-282-84346-X |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; Figures; 1. Average and Standard Deviation of Inflation, 2000-08; 2. Monthly Inflation (12-Month) in Sudan, January 2000-October 2008; III. Methodology; A. Which Inflation Should Be Forecasted?; 3. Overall Inflation, 2000-08; B. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model; 4. Cumulative Spectral Distribution of Inflation, 2000-08; C. Leading Indicators; 5. Currency Holding and Islamic Dummies, 2005-08; 6. Candidates of Leading Indicators; IV. Results; A. ARMA Model; 7. Actual and Projected Inflation Based on the Estimated ARMA Models
B. Granger Causality Tests for Leading IndicatorsV. Implications-What Can be said from the Estimated Model and the Tests?; A. Can the Estimated Model Explain the Surge of Inflation in 2007 and 2008?; 8. Forecasted Inflation, July 2007-December 2008; 9. Forecast Errors of the Model and Bread Contribution to Inflation, July 2007-October 2008; B. Forecasting Inflation for 2009 and 2010; 10. Forecasted Inflation; 11. Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (4,5), July 2008-December 2010; C. Leading Indicators (Private Sector Credit Growth and Wheat Price Inflation) 12. Oil Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-1013. Wheat Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-10; VI. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Estimated ARMA Model of Inflation; 2. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 2000-08; 3. Granger Causality Tests Between Inflation and Leading Indicators, 2000-08; Appendices; I. The Schwartz Information Criterion; II. Estimated ARMA Model for main Monetary Aggregates; Appendix Tables; A1. Estimated ARMA Model of Broad money, 2000-08; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910827476303321 |
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Moriyama Kenji
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart / / Prakash Kannan, Selim Elekdag
| Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart / / Prakash Kannan, Selim Elekdag |
| Autore | Kannan Prakash |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina | 336.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | ElekdagSelim |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Time-series analysis Asset prices Deflation Derivative securities Economic Forecasting Energy: Demand and Supply Finance Financial Instruments Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Gdp forecasting Inflation Institutional Investors Investments: Options Macroeconomics National income Non-bank Financial Institutions Oil prices Options Pension Funds Price Level Prices |
| ISBN |
1-4623-6888-3
1-4527-4804-7 1-282-84389-3 9786612843891 1-4518-7325-5 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817190803321 |
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Kannan Prakash
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
| Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina | 336.54 |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Econometric models
Time-series analysis Inflation Investments: Options Macroeconomics Energy: Demand and Supply Prices Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Pension Funds Non-bank Financial Institutions Financial Instruments Institutional Investors Economic Forecasting Finance Oil prices Asset prices GDP forecasting Options National income Derivative securities |
| ISBN |
1-4623-6888-3
1-4527-4804-7 1-282-84389-3 9786612843891 1-4518-7325-5 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788228603321 |
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inflation in Tajikistan : : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges / / Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki
| Inflation in Tajikistan : : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges / / Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki |
| Autore | Vtyurina Svetlana |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 19 p. : ill |
| Altri autori (Persone) | AlturkiFahad |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Tajikistan
Monetary policy - Tajikistan Econometrics Foreign Exchange Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General Forecasting and Other Model Applications Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models Multiple Variables: General Macroeconomics Monetary economics Currency Foreign exchange Economic Forecasting Econometrics & economic statistics Monetary base Exchange rates Economic forecasting Vector error correction models Prices Money supply Econometric models |
| ISBN |
1-4623-5777-6
1-4527-2079-7 1-282-84526-8 1-4519-6217-7 9786612845260 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788220603321 |
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Vtyurina Svetlana
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Soggetto topico
-
Economic Forecasting
(31)
- Deflation (27)
- Forecasting and Other Model Applications (27)
- Inflation (27)
- Macroeconomics (27)