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A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle / / Abdullah Al-Hassan
| A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle / / Abdullah Al-Hassan |
| Autore | Al-Hassan Abdullah |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (36 p.) |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Business cycles
Econometrics Foreign Exchange Macroeconomics Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Price Level Inflation Deflation Classification Methods Cluster Analysis Principal Components Factor Models Economic growth Econometrics & economic statistics Currency Foreign exchange Cyclical indicators Consumer prices Factor models Nominal effective exchange rate Prices Econometric models |
| ISBN |
1-4623-2248-4
1-4527-4301-0 9786612842948 1-282-84294-3 1-4518-7220-8 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model; B. Estimating Common Components by a One-Sided Filter; Figures; 1. Average Dynamic Eigenvalues Over Cross-Sectional Units; 2. Percentage of Variance Explained; III. Building a GCC Area Database; IV. A Coincident Indicator for the GCC Business Cycle; A. Definition of the Coincident Indicator Properties; 3. Spectral Density Functions of All Eigenvalues; 4. Average of Spectral Density Functions; B. Properties of the Coincident Indicator; C. The Construction of a Coincident Indicator
5. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the GCC Area GDP Growth Rate6. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; 7. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; V. Degree of Commonality and Cyclical Behavior of the Variables; A. Degree of Commonality; B. Business Cycle: Stylized Facts; Tables; 1. The Direction and Timing of Variables Against the Coincident Indicator; VI. Observed Economic Variables and Latent Factors; VII. Conclusion; 2. Testing the Observed Macroeconomic Data Against the Latent Factors; Appendix; I: Data Set; Appendix Tables 1: Data, Degree of Commonality, and Cyclical BehaviorReferences |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788337203321 |
Al-Hassan Abdullah
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer
| Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer |
| Autore | Moriyama Kenji |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (27 p.) |
| Altri autori (Persone) | NaseerAbdul |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Sudan
Economic forecasting - Sudan Inflation Macroeconomics Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Price Level Deflation Forecasting and Other Model Applications Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis Prices Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General Economic Forecasting Economic growth Monetary economics Economic forecasting Agricultural prices Cyclical indicators Monetary base Business cycles Money supply |
| ISBN |
1-4623-4063-6
1-4527-3897-1 1-4518-7279-8 9786612843464 1-282-84346-X |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; Figures; 1. Average and Standard Deviation of Inflation, 2000-08; 2. Monthly Inflation (12-Month) in Sudan, January 2000-October 2008; III. Methodology; A. Which Inflation Should Be Forecasted?; 3. Overall Inflation, 2000-08; B. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model; 4. Cumulative Spectral Distribution of Inflation, 2000-08; C. Leading Indicators; 5. Currency Holding and Islamic Dummies, 2005-08; 6. Candidates of Leading Indicators; IV. Results; A. ARMA Model; 7. Actual and Projected Inflation Based on the Estimated ARMA Models
B. Granger Causality Tests for Leading IndicatorsV. Implications-What Can be said from the Estimated Model and the Tests?; A. Can the Estimated Model Explain the Surge of Inflation in 2007 and 2008?; 8. Forecasted Inflation, July 2007-December 2008; 9. Forecast Errors of the Model and Bread Contribution to Inflation, July 2007-October 2008; B. Forecasting Inflation for 2009 and 2010; 10. Forecasted Inflation; 11. Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (4,5), July 2008-December 2010; C. Leading Indicators (Private Sector Credit Growth and Wheat Price Inflation) 12. Oil Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-1013. Wheat Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-10; VI. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Estimated ARMA Model of Inflation; 2. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 2000-08; 3. Granger Causality Tests Between Inflation and Leading Indicators, 2000-08; Appendices; I. The Schwartz Information Criterion; II. Estimated ARMA Model for main Monetary Aggregates; Appendix Tables; A1. Estimated ARMA Model of Broad money, 2000-08; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788332703321 |
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Moriyama Kenji
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Measures of Underlying Inflation in Sri Lanka / / Souvik Gupta, Magnus Saxegaard
| Measures of Underlying Inflation in Sri Lanka / / Souvik Gupta, Magnus Saxegaard |
| Autore | Gupta Souvik |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Altri autori (Persone) | SaxegaardMagnus |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Sri Lanka
Monetary policy - Sri Lanka Inflation Macroeconomics Econometric Modeling: General Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis Prices Energy: Demand and Supply Economic growth Consumer price indexes Cyclical indicators Food prices Fuel prices Price indexes Business cycles |
| ISBN |
1-4623-3760-0
1-4527-2988-3 9786612843808 1-282-84380-X 1-4518-7314-X |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Consumer Price Inflation; 2. Capacity Utilization; 3. Inflationary Pressure; II. Background; 4. Reserve Money and Credit; III. Alternative Measures of Core Inflation; A. Exclusion-based Methods; 5. Exclusion Based Measure of Core Inflation; B. Limited Influence Estimators; C. Reweighing the CPI; 6. Trimmed Mean Inflation; 7. Root Mean Squared Errors of Alternative Trimmed Mean Measures; D. Model-based Methods; 8. Persistence Weighted Measure of Core Inflation; IV. Conditions to Evaluate Measures of Core Inflation; 9. Quah-Vahey Measure of Core Inflation
A. Marques et al. (2004) TestsV. Results; Tables; 1. Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation; VI. Concluding Remarks; References |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788229703321 |
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Gupta Souvik
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Soggetto topico
- Business cycles (3)
-
Cyclical indicators
(3)
- Deflation (3)
- Economic growth (3)
- Inflation (3)