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Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility : : Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization / / Elena Dumitrescu, Rabah Arezki, Andreas Freytag, Marc Quintyn
Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility : : Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization / / Elena Dumitrescu, Rabah Arezki, Andreas Freytag, Marc Quintyn
Autore Dumitrescu Elena
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (20 p.)
Altri autori (Persone) ArezkiRabah
FreytagAndreas
QuintynMarc
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Prices
Foreign exchange rates - South Africa
Exports and Imports
Foreign Exchange
Macroeconomics
International Investment
Long-term Capital Movements
Current Account Adjustment
Short-term Capital Movements
Metals and Metal Products
Cement
Glass
Ceramics
Commodity Markets
Currency
Foreign exchange
International economics
Gold prices
Real exchange rates
Real effective exchange rates
Capital account liberalization
Commodity price fluctuations
Balance of payments
Gold
ISBN 1-4755-5956-9
1-4755-6350-7
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Literature; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Data; B. Time Series Properties and Econometric Techniques; IV. Main Results; V. Robustness; VI. Conclusion; References; Figures; Figure 1. Evolution of Gold Prices and South Africa Rand Real Exchange Rate; Figure 2. Volatility of Gold Prices and South Africa Rand Real Exchange Rate; Tables; Table 1 Johansen Cointegration Test Results on Pre-Capital Account Liberalization; Table 2 Johansen Cointegration Test Results on Post-Capital Account Liberalization
Table 3 Lagrange Multiplier Test for Residual AutocorelationTable 4 VECM Results for Pre-Capital Account Liberalization Sample; Table 5 Post-Capital Account Liberalization VECM Results; Table 6 Testing Weak Exogeneity
Record Nr. UNINA-9910786484703321
Dumitrescu Elena  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility : : Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization / / Elena Dumitrescu, Rabah Arezki, Andreas Freytag, Marc Quintyn
Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility : : Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization / / Elena Dumitrescu, Rabah Arezki, Andreas Freytag, Marc Quintyn
Autore Dumitrescu Elena
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (20 p.)
Disciplina 332.152
Altri autori (Persone) ArezkiRabah
FreytagAndreas
QuintynMarc
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Prices
Foreign exchange rates - South Africa
Exports and Imports
Foreign Exchange
Macroeconomics
International Investment
Long-term Capital Movements
Current Account Adjustment
Short-term Capital Movements
Metals and Metal Products
Cement
Glass
Ceramics
Commodity Markets
Currency
Foreign exchange
International economics
Gold prices
Real exchange rates
Real effective exchange rates
Capital account liberalization
Commodity price fluctuations
Balance of payments
Gold
ISBN 1-4755-5956-9
1-4755-6350-7
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Literature; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Data; B. Time Series Properties and Econometric Techniques; IV. Main Results; V. Robustness; VI. Conclusion; References; Figures; Figure 1. Evolution of Gold Prices and South Africa Rand Real Exchange Rate; Figure 2. Volatility of Gold Prices and South Africa Rand Real Exchange Rate; Tables; Table 1 Johansen Cointegration Test Results on Pre-Capital Account Liberalization; Table 2 Johansen Cointegration Test Results on Post-Capital Account Liberalization
Table 3 Lagrange Multiplier Test for Residual AutocorelationTable 4 VECM Results for Pre-Capital Account Liberalization Sample; Table 5 Post-Capital Account Liberalization VECM Results; Table 6 Testing Weak Exogeneity
Record Nr. UNINA-9910810767103321
Dumitrescu Elena  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Commodity Terms of Trade : : The History of Booms and Busts
Commodity Terms of Trade : : The History of Booms and Busts
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Descrizione fisica 34 p. : ill
Collana IMF Working Papers
Soggetto topico Prices
Terms of trade - Econometric models
Business cycles - Econometric models
Investments: Commodities
Investments: Energy
Macroeconomics
Commodity Markets
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Investment & securities
Economic growth
Commodity prices
Business cycles
Commodities
Commodity booms
Commodity price fluctuations
Commercial products
ISBN 1-4623-3659-0
9786612844119
1-282-84411-3
1-4518-7352-2
1-4527-3896-3
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Record Nr. UNINA-9910788226203321
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Commodity Terms of Trade : : The History of Booms and Busts
Commodity Terms of Trade : : The History of Booms and Busts
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Descrizione fisica 34 p. : ill
Disciplina 338.5;338.52
Collana IMF Working Papers
Soggetto topico Prices
Terms of trade - Econometric models
Business cycles - Econometric models
Investments: Commodities
Investments: Energy
Macroeconomics
Commodity Markets
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Investment & securities
Economic growth
Commodity prices
Business cycles
Commodities
Commodity booms
Commodity price fluctuations
Commercial products
ISBN 1-4623-3659-0
9786612844119
1-282-84411-3
1-4518-7352-2
1-4527-3896-3
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Commodity Terms of Trade -- III. Identifying Commodity Booms and Busts -- IV. The Consequences of Commodity Booms and Busts -- V. Conclusions -- VI. References -- Tables -- 1. The Distribution of Booms Across Periods and Regions: Some Summary Statistics -- 2. The Distributions of Busts Across Periods and Regions: Some Summary Statistics -- 3. Descriptive Tests of Amplitude and Duration of Booms and Busts -- 4. The Most Recent Episodes of Booms and Busts -- 5. Macroeconomic Performance During Booms and Busts -- 6. Comparative Tests of Macroeconomic Performance During Booms and Busts -- 7. Macroeconomic Performance in the Latest Boom Relative to the Past -- Figures -- 1. Commodity Price Aggregates -- 2. Commodity Terms of Trade -- 3. Commodity Terms of Trade by Region -- 4. Commodity Terms of Trade: Fuel Exporters -- 5. Commodity Terms of Trade: Non-Fuel Commodity Exporters -- 6. Commodity Terms of Trade: Other Countries -- 7. Commodity Prices and Terms of Trade: Venezuela -- 8. Commodity Prices and Terms of Trade Papua New Guinea -- 9. Commodity Prices and Terms of Trade Mauritius -- 10. The Number of Countries Experiencing Booms and Busts in the Commodity Terms of Trade.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910825972003321
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina
Autore Caceres Carlos
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (23 p.)
Altri autori (Persone) MedinaLeandro
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Petroleum products - Prices
Finance, Public - Middle East
Finance, Public - Africa, North
Investments: Futures
Macroeconomics
Public Finance
Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Commodity Markets
Public Administration
Public Sector Accounting and Audits
Pension Funds
Non-bank Financial Institutions
Financial Instruments
Institutional Investors
Public finance & taxation
Finance
Oil prices
Commodity price fluctuations
Fiscal risks
Futures
Commodity prices
Public financial management (PFM)
Financial institutions
Fiscal policy
Derivative securities
ISBN 1-4755-9846-7
1-4755-4500-2
1-283-94788-9
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries
3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References
Record Nr. UNINA-9910779594203321
Caceres Carlos  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina
Autore Caceres Carlos
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (23 p.)
Disciplina 332.1;332.1/52
Altri autori (Persone) MedinaLeandro
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Petroleum products - Prices
Finance, Public - Middle East
Finance, Public - Africa, North
Investments: Futures
Macroeconomics
Public Finance
Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Commodity Markets
Public Administration
Public Sector Accounting and Audits
Pension Funds
Non-bank Financial Institutions
Financial Instruments
Institutional Investors
Public finance & taxation
Finance
Oil prices
Commodity price fluctuations
Fiscal risks
Futures
Commodity prices
Public financial management (PFM)
Financial institutions
Fiscal policy
Derivative securities
ISBN 1-4755-9846-7
1-4755-4500-2
1-283-94788-9
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries
3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References
Record Nr. UNINA-9910826707203321
Caceres Carlos  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : : The Role of Storage / / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz Unsal
On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : : The Role of Storage / / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz Unsal
Autore Unalmis Deren
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (42 p.)
Altri autori (Persone) UnalmisIbrahim
UnsalFiliz
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Petroleum products - Prices - Econometric models
Petroleum products - Storage
Investments: Energy
Inflation
Macroeconomics
Economic Theory
General Aggregative Models: Keynes
Keynesian
Post-Keynesian
Energy and the Macroeconomy
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Energy: General
Commodity Markets
Price Level
Deflation
Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis
Investment & securities
Economic theory & philosophy
Oil prices
Oil
Commodity price fluctuations
Supply shocks
Commodities
Economic theory
Petroleum industry and trade
Supply and demand
ISBN 1-61635-702-9
1-4755-9843-2
1-283-94779-X
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures
1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storage
Record Nr. UNINA-9910779593503321
Unalmis Deren  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : : The Role of Storage / / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz Unsal
On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : : The Role of Storage / / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz Unsal
Autore Unalmis Deren
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (42 p.)
Disciplina 338.29346
Altri autori (Persone) UnalmisIbrahim
UnsalFiliz
Collana IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper
Soggetto topico Petroleum products - Prices - Econometric models
Petroleum products - Storage
Investments: Energy
Inflation
Macroeconomics
Economic Theory
General Aggregative Models: Keynes
Keynesian
Post-Keynesian
Energy and the Macroeconomy
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Energy: General
Commodity Markets
Price Level
Deflation
Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis
Investment & securities
Economic theory & philosophy
Oil prices
Oil
Commodity price fluctuations
Supply shocks
Commodities
Economic theory
Petroleum industry and trade
Supply and demand
ISBN 1-61635-702-9
1-4755-9843-2
1-283-94779-X
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures
1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storage
Record Nr. UNINA-9910817344703321
Unalmis Deren  
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries
Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (22 p.)
Collana IMF Working Papers
Soggetto topico Stocks - Prices - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Capital stock - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Bank loans - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Exports and Imports
Macroeconomics
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data
International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
Economic Growth of Open Economies
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation
Commodity Markets
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Empirical Studies of Trade
Trade: General
International economics
Commodity prices
Oil prices
Commodity price fluctuations
Terms of trade
Exports
International trade
Economic policy
nternational cooperation
ISBN 1-4623-6182-X
1-4527-4300-2
1-282-84368-0
1-4518-7302-6
9786612843686
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth
6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth
11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References
Record Nr. UNINA-9910788331103321
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries
Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (22 p.)
Disciplina 341.27
Collana IMF Working Papers
Soggetto topico Stocks - Prices - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Capital stock - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Bank loans - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
Exports and Imports
Macroeconomics
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data
International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
Economic Growth of Open Economies
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation
Commodity Markets
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Empirical Studies of Trade
Trade: General
International economics
Commodity prices
Oil prices
Commodity price fluctuations
Terms of trade
Exports
International trade
Economic policy
nternational cooperation
ISBN 1-4623-6182-X
1-4527-4300-2
1-282-84368-0
1-4518-7302-6
9786612843686
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth
6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth
11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References
Record Nr. UNINA-9910828556403321
Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui