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Business forecasting : practical problems and solutions / / edited by Michael Gilliland, Udo Sglavo, Len Tashman
Business forecasting : practical problems and solutions / / edited by Michael Gilliland, Udo Sglavo, Len Tashman
Edizione [1st edition]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (442 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Collana Wiley and SAS Business Series
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 1-119-22829-8
1-119-22827-1
Classificazione BUS086000
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Record Nr. UNINA-9910137424803321
Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Business forecasting : practical problems and solutions / / edited by Michael Gilliland, Udo Sglavo, Len Tashman
Business forecasting : practical problems and solutions / / edited by Michael Gilliland, Udo Sglavo, Len Tashman
Edizione [1st edition]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (442 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Collana Wiley and SAS Business Series
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 1-119-22829-8
1-119-22827-1
Classificazione BUS086000
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Record Nr. UNINA-9910818562003321
Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
The business forecasting deal [[electronic resource] ] : exposing the myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions / / Michael Gilliland
The business forecasting deal [[electronic resource] ] : exposing the myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions / / Michael Gilliland
Autore Gilliland Michael
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (275 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Collana Wiley and SAS Business Series
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 0-470-76965-3
1-119-19988-3
1-282-68324-1
9786612683244
0-470-76963-7
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Fundamental issues in business forecasting -- Worst practices in business forecasting: Part 1 -- Worst practices in business forecasting: Part 2 -- Forecast value added analysis.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910139215103321
Gilliland Michael  
Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
The business forecasting deal : exposing the myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions / / Michael Gilliland
The business forecasting deal : exposing the myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions / / Michael Gilliland
Autore Gilliland Michael
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (275 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Collana Wiley and SAS Business Series
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 9786612683244
9780470769652
0470769653
9781119199885
1119199883
9781282683242
1282683241
9780470769638
0470769637
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Fundamental issues in business forecasting -- Worst practices in business forecasting: Part 1 -- Worst practices in business forecasting: Part 2 -- Forecast value added analysis.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910819927803321
Gilliland Michael  
Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Future ready [[electronic resource] ] : how to master business forecasting / / Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
Future ready [[electronic resource] ] : how to master business forecasting / / Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
Autore Morlidge Steve
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (330 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Altri autori (Persone) PlayerSteve <1958->
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 1-119-20661-8
0-470-66221-2
1-282-88891-9
9786612888915
0-470-71010-1
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto section 1. 'Why?' -- section 2. Principles -- section 3. 'Praxis' -- section 4. Transformation.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910140906603321
Morlidge Steve  
Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Future ready : how to master business forecasting / / Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
Future ready : how to master business forecasting / / Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
Autore Morlidge Steve
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (330 p.)
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Altri autori (Persone) PlayerSteve <1958->
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 9786612888915
9781119206613
1119206618
9780470662212
0470662212
9781282888913
1282888919
9780470710104
0470710101
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto section 1. 'Why?' -- section 2. Principles -- section 3. 'Praxis' -- section 4. Transformation.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910811157003321
Morlidge Steve  
Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, 2010
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Practical business forecasting / / Michael K. Evans
Practical business forecasting / / Michael K. Evans
Autore Evans Michael K
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa Malden, MA, : Blackwell Publishers, 2002
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (xx, 501 p. ) : ill
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
ISBN 9786610197552
9781280197550
1280197552
9780470702697
0470702699
9780470755624
0470755628
9781405137805
1405137800
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto Intro -- Practical Business Forecasting -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- Part I -- Chapter 1: Choosing the Right Type of Forecasting Model -- Introduction -- 1.1 Statistics, Econometrics, and Forecasting -- 1.2 The Concept of Forecasting Accuracy: Compared to What? -- 1.2.1 Structural Shifts in Parameters -- 1.2.2 Model Misspecification -- 1.2.3 Missing, Smoothed, Preliminary, or Inaccurate Data -- 1.2.4 Changing Expectations by Economic Agents -- 1.2.5 Policy Shifts -- 1.2.6 Unexpected Changes in Exogenous Variables -- 1.2.7 Incorrect Assumptions About Exogeneity -- 1.2.8 Error Buildup in Multi-Period Forecasts -- 1.3 Alternative Types of Forecasts -- 1.3.1 Point or Interval -- 1.3.2 Absolute or Conditional -- 1.3.3 Alternative Scenarios Weighed by Probabilities -- 1.3.4 Asymmetric Gains and Losses -- 1.3.5 Single-Period or Multi-Period -- 1.3.6 Short Run or Long Range -- 1.3.7 Forecasting Single or Multiple Variables -- 1.4 Some Common Pitfalls in Building Forecasting Equations -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 2: Useful Tools for Practical Business Forecasting -- Introduction -- 2.1 Types and Sources of Data -- 2.1.1 Time-Series, Cross-Section, and Panel Data -- 2.1.2 Basic Sources of US Government Data -- 2.1.3 Major Sources of International Government Data -- 2.1.4 Principal Sources of Key Private Sector Data -- 2.2 Collecting Data from the Internet -- 2.3 Forecasting Under Uncertainty -- 2.4 Mean and Variance -- 2.5 Goodness-of-Fit Statistics -- 2.5.1 Covariance and Correlation Coefficients -- 2.5.2 Standard Errors and t-ratios -- 2.5.3 F-ratios and Adjusted R-Squared -- 2.6 Using the Eviews Statistical Package -- 2.7 Utilizing Graphs and Charts -- 2.8 Checklist Before Analyzing Data -- 2.8.1 Adjusting for Seasonal Factors -- 2.8.2 Checking for Outlying Values -- 2.9 Using Logarithms and Elasticities -- Problems and Questions.
Part II -- Chapter 3: The General Linear Regression Model -- Introduction -- 3.1 The General Linear Model -- 3.1.1 The Bivariate Case -- 3.1.2 Desirable Properties of Estimators -- 3.1.3 Expanding to the Multivariate Case -- 3.2 Uses and Misuses of R¯2 -- 3.2.1 Differences Between R2 and R¯2 -- 3.2.2 Pitfalls in Trying to Maximize R¯2 -- 3.2.3 An Example: The Simple Consumption Function -- 3.3 Measuring and Understanding Partial Correlation -- 3.3.1 Covariance and The Correlation Matrix -- 3.3.2 Partial Correlation Coefficients -- 3.3.3 Pitfalls of Stepwise Regression -- 3.4 Testing and Adjusting for Autocorrelation -- 3.4.1 Why Autocorrelation Occurs and What It Means -- 3.4.2 Durbin-watson Statistic to Measure Autocorrelation -- 3.4.3 Autocorrelation Adjustments: Cochrane...orcutt and Hildreth...lu -- 3.4.4 Higher-order Autocorrelation -- 3.4.5 Overstatement of t-ratios when Autocorrelation Is Present -- 3.4.6 Pitfalls of Using The Lagged Dependent Variable -- 3.5 Testing and Adjusting for Heteroscedasticity -- 3.5.1 Causes of Heteroscedasticity in Cross-Section and Time-Series Data -- 3.5.2 Measuring and Testing for Heteroscedasticity -- 3.6 Getting Started: An Example in Eviews -- Case Study 1: Predicting Retail Sales for Hardware Stores -- Case Study 2: German Short-term Interest Rates -- Case Study 3: Lumber Prices -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 4: Additional Topics For Single-equation Regression Models -- Introduction -- 4.1 Problems Caused By Multicollinearity -- 4.2 Eliminating or Reducing Spurious Trends -- Case Study 4: Demand for Airline Travel -- 4.2.1 Log-linear Transformation -- 4.2.2 Percentage First Differences -- 4.2.3 Ratios -- 4.2.4 Deviations Around Trends -- 4.2.5 Weighted Least Squares -- 4.2.6 Summary and Comparison of Methods -- 4.3 Distributed Lags -- 4.3.1 General Discussion of Distributed Lags.
4.3.2 Polynomial Distributed Lags -- 4.3.3 General Guidelines for Using PDLs -- 4.4 Treatment of Outliers and Issues of Data Adequacy -- 4.4.1 Outliers -- 4.4.2 Missing Observations -- 4.4.3 General Comments on Data Adequacy -- 4.5 Uses and Misuses of Dummy Variables -- 4.5.1 Single-Event Dummy Variables -- 4.5.2 Changes in Dummy Variables for Institutional Structure -- 4.5.3 Changes in Slope Coefficients -- 4.6 Nonlinear Regressions -- 4.6.1 Log-linear Equations -- 4.6.2 Quadratic and Other Powers, Including Inverse -- 4.6.3 Ceiling, Floors, and Kronecker Deltas: Linearizing with Dummy Variables -- 4.7 General Steps for Formulating a Multivariate Regression Equation -- Case Study 5: The Consumption Function -- Case Study 6: Capital Spending -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 5: Forecasting with a Single-Equation Regression Model -- Introduction -- 5.1 Checking for Normally Distributed Residuals -- 5.1.1 Higher-order Tests for Autocorrelation -- 5.1.2 Tests for Heteroscedasticity -- 5.2 Testing for Equation Stability and Robustness -- 5.2.1 Chow Test for Equation Stability -- 5.2.2 Ramsey Reset Test to Detect Misspecification -- 5.2.3 Recursive Least Squares - Testing Outside The Sample Period -- 5.2.4 Additional Comments on Multicollinearity -- Case Study 7: Demand for Motor Vehicles -- 5.3 Evaluating Forecast Accuracy -- 5.4 The Effect of Forecasting Errors in the Independent Variables -- Case Study 8: Housing Starts -- 5.5 Comparison With Naive Models -- 5.5.1 Same Level or Percentage Change -- 5.5.2 Naive Models using Lagged Values of the Dependent Variables -- 5.6 Buildup of Forecast Error Outside the Sample Period -- 5.6.1 Increased Distance from the Mean Value -- 5.6.2 Unknown Values of Independent Variables -- 5.6.3 Error Buildup in Multi-Period Forecasting -- Case Study 9: The Yen/Dollar Cross-Rate -- Problems and Questions -- Part III.
Chapter 6: Elements of Univariate Time-Series Methods -- Introduction -- 6.1 The Basic Time-Series Decomposition Model -- Case Study 10: General Merchandise Sales -- 6.1.1 Identifying the Trend -- 6.1.2 Measuring the Seasonal Factor -- 6.1.3 Separating the Cyclical and Irregular Components -- 6.2 Linear and Nonlinear Trends -- 6.3 Methods of Smoothing Data -- 6.3.1 Arithmetic Moving Averages -- 6.3.2 Exponential Moving Averages -- 6.3.3 Holt-winters Method for Exponential Smoothing -- 6.3.4 Hodrick-prescott Filter -- 6.4 Methods of Seasonal Adjustment -- 6.4.1 Arithmetic and Multiplicative Fixed Weights -- 6.4.2 Variable Weights -- 6.4.3 Treatment of Outlying Observations -- 6.4.4 Seasonal Adjustment Factors With the Census Bureau X-11 Program -- Case Study 11: Manufacturing Inventory Stocks for Textile Mill Products -- Case Study 12: Seasonally Adjusted Gasoline Prices -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 7: Univariate Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting -- Introduction -- 7.1 The Box-jenkins Approach to Non-Structural Models -- 7.2 Estimating Arma Models -- 7.2.1 First-Order Autoregressive Models - AR(1) -- 7.2.2 Ar(2) Models -- 7.2.3 Ar(N) Models -- 7.2.4 Moving-Average (Ma) Models -- 7.2.5 ARMA Procedures -- 7.3 Stationary and Integrated Series -- 7.4 Identification -- 7.5 Seasonal Factors in ARMA Modeling -- 7.6 Estimation of ARMA Models -- 7.7 Diagnostic Checking and Forecasting -- Case Study 13: New Orders for Machine Tools -- Case Study 14: Inventory/Sales (I/S) Ratio for Sic 37 (Transportation Equipment) -- Case Study 15: Non-Farm Payroll Employment -- Summary -- Problems and Questions -- Part IV -- Chapter 8: Combining Forecasts -- Introduction -- 8.1 Outline of the Theory of Forecast Combination -- 8.2 Major Sources of Forecast Error -- 8.3 Combining Methods of Non-Structural Estimation.
8.4 Combining Structural and Non-Structural Methods -- Case Study 16: Purchases of Consumer Durables -- 8.5 The Role of Judgment in Forecasting -- 8.5.1 Surveys of Sentiment and Buying Plans -- 8.5.2 Sentiment Index for Prospective Home Buyers -- 8.6 The Role of Consensus Forecasts -- Case Study 17: Predicting Interest Rates by Combining Structural and Consensus Forecasts -- 8.7 Adjusting Constant Terms and Slope Coefficients -- 8.7.1 Advantages and Pitfalls of Adjusting the Constant Term -- 8.7.2 Estimating Shifting Parameters -- 8.8 Combining Forecasts: Summary -- Case Study 18: Improving the Forecasting Record for Inflation -- Summary -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 9: Building and Presenting Short-Term Sales Forecasting Models -- Introduction -- 9.1 Organizing the Sales Forecasting Procedure -- 9.2 Endogenous and Exogenous Variables in Sales Forecasting -- 9.2.1 Macroeconomic Variables -- 9.2.2 Variables Controlled by the Firm -- 9.2.3 Variable Reflecting Competitive Response -- 9.3 The Role of Judgment -- 9.3.1 Deflecting Excess Optimism -- 9.3.2 The Importance of Accurate Macroeconomic Forecasts -- 9.3.3 Assessing Judgmental Inputs -- 9.4 Presenting Sales Forecasts -- 9.4.1 Purchases of Construction Equipment -- 9.4.2 Retail Furniture Sales -- Case Study 19: The Demand for Bicycles -- Case Study 20: New Orders for Machine Tools -- Case Study 21: Purchases of Farm Equipment -- Problems and Questions -- Chapter 10: Methods of Long-term Forecasting -- Introduction -- 10.1 Non-Parametric Methods of Long-term Forecasting -- 10.1.1 Survey Methods -- 10.1.2 Analogy and Precursor Methods -- 10.1.3 Scenario Analysis -- 10.1.4 Delphi Analysis -- 10.2 Statistical Methods of Determining Nonlinear Trends: Nonlinear Growth and Decline, Logistics, and Saturation Curves -- 10.2.1 Nonlinear Growth and Decline Curves -- 10.2.2 Logistics Curves (s-Curves).
10.2.3 Saturation Curves.
Record Nr. UNINA-9911020168703321
Evans Michael K  
Malden, MA, : Blackwell Publishers, 2002
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Predictocracy [[electronic resource] ] : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Predictocracy [[electronic resource] ] : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Autore Abramowicz Michael
Pubbl/distr/stampa New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (1 online resource (xviii, 346 p.) ) : ill
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
Economic forecasting
Decision making
Forecasting
Soggetto genere / forma Electronic books.
ISBN 1-282-08857-2
9786612088575
0-300-14495-4
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto The media -- Policy analysts -- Businesses -- Committees -- Regulatory bodies -- Administrative agencies -- Public corporations -- Courts -- Legislative bodies -- Predictocracy.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910455160803321
Abramowicz Michael  
New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Predictocracy [[electronic resource] ] : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Predictocracy [[electronic resource] ] : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Autore Abramowicz Michael
Pubbl/distr/stampa New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (1 online resource (xviii, 346 p.) ) : ill
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
Economic forecasting
Decision making
Forecasting
ISBN 1-282-08857-2
9786612088575
0-300-14495-4
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto The media -- Policy analysts -- Businesses -- Committees -- Regulatory bodies -- Administrative agencies -- Public corporations -- Courts -- Legislative bodies -- Predictocracy.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910777957803321
Abramowicz Michael  
New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Predictocracy : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Predictocracy : market mechanisms for public and private decision making / / Michael Abramowicz
Autore Abramowicz Michael
Edizione [1st ed.]
Pubbl/distr/stampa New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Descrizione fisica 1 online resource (1 online resource (xviii, 346 p.) ) : ill
Disciplina 658.4/0355
Soggetto topico Business forecasting
Economic forecasting
Decision making
Forecasting
ISBN 9786612088575
9781282088573
1282088572
9780300144956
0300144954
Formato Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione eng
Nota di contenuto The media -- Policy analysts -- Businesses -- Committees -- Regulatory bodies -- Administrative agencies -- Public corporations -- Courts -- Legislative bodies -- Predictocracy.
Record Nr. UNINA-9910969549103321
Abramowicz Michael  
New Haven, : Yale University Press, c2007
Materiale a stampa
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui