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Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability [[electronic resource] /] / Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies
| Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability [[electronic resource] /] / Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, 2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (193 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Collana | National Research Council |
| Soggetto topico |
Climatology
Climatology - Research |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-282-78721-7
9786612787218 0-309-15184-8 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Front Matter ""; ""Contents""; ""Summary ""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Climate Prediction""; ""3 Building Blocks of Intraseasonal to Interannual Forecasting""; ""4 Case Studies ""; ""5 Best Practices ""; ""6 Recommendations and Remarks on Implementation""; ""References ""; ""Appendix A Background Information on Statistical Techniques ""; ""Appendix B Committee Members� Biographical Information "" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910458991403321 |
| Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, 2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability [[electronic resource] /] / Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies
| Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability [[electronic resource] /] / Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, 2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (193 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Collana | National Research Council |
| Soggetto topico |
Climatology
Climatology - Research |
| ISBN |
0-309-16134-7
1-282-78721-7 9786612787218 0-309-15184-8 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Front Matter ""; ""Contents""; ""Summary ""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Climate Prediction""; ""3 Building Blocks of Intraseasonal to Interannual Forecasting""; ""4 Case Studies ""; ""5 Best Practices ""; ""6 Recommendations and Remarks on Implementation""; ""References ""; ""Appendix A Background Information on Statistical Techniques ""; ""Appendix B Committee Members� Biographical Information "" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910791841803321 |
| Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, 2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Cartes du temps et avertissement de tempt̊es / Robert H. Scott ; traduit de l'anglais par Zurcher et Margollé
| Cartes du temps et avertissement de tempt̊es / Robert H. Scott ; traduit de l'anglais par Zurcher et Margollé |
| Autore | Scott, Robert H. |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Paris : Gauthier-Villars, 1879 |
| Descrizione fisica | VI, 154 p. : ill. ; 21 cm |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Soggetto non controllato | Meteorologia |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | ita |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-990000100250403321 |
Scott, Robert H.
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| Paris : Gauthier-Villars, 1879 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Communicating uncertainties in weather and climate information [[electronic resource] ] : a workshop summary / / Elbert W. Friday, Jr
| Communicating uncertainties in weather and climate information [[electronic resource] ] : a workshop summary / / Elbert W. Friday, Jr |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : The National Academies Press, 2003 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (69 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | FridayElbert W |
| Soggetto topico |
Meteorology
Climatology Weather forecasting Climatic changes - Forecasting Risk communication |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-280-18316-0
9780309513669 9786610183166 0-309-51366-9 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Front Matter; Preface; Acknowledgment of Reviewers; Contents; 1 Background; 2 Case Studies; 3 Lessons Learned from the Case Studies; References; Acronyms and Abbreviations; APPENDIX A Workshop Agenda; APPENDIX B Workshop Participants; APPENDIX C Weather Event Timelines |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910456120303321 |
| Washington, D.C., : The National Academies Press, 2003 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Communicating uncertainties in weather and climate information [[electronic resource] ] : a workshop summary / / Elbert W. Friday, Jr
| Communicating uncertainties in weather and climate information [[electronic resource] ] : a workshop summary / / Elbert W. Friday, Jr |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : The National Academies Press, 2003 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (69 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | FridayElbert W |
| Soggetto topico |
Meteorology
Climatology Weather forecasting Climatic changes - Forecasting Risk communication |
| ISBN |
0-309-16860-0
1-280-18316-0 9780309513669 9786610183166 0-309-51366-9 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Front Matter; Preface; Acknowledgment of Reviewers; Contents; 1 Background; 2 Case Studies; 3 Lessons Learned from the Case Studies; References; Acronyms and Abbreviations; APPENDIX A Workshop Agenda; APPENDIX B Workshop Participants; APPENDIX C Weather Event Timelines |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910780298903321 |
| Washington, D.C., : The National Academies Press, 2003 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Completing the forecast [[electronic resource] ] : characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts / / Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies
| Completing the forecast [[electronic resource] ] : characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts / / Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, c2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (125 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Soggetto topico |
Weather
Weather forecasting Climatic changes - Environmental aspects |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-280-70490-X
9786610704903 0-309-66261-3 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Front Matter""; ""Preface""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Contents""; ""Summary""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Uncertainty in Decision Making""; ""3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty""; ""4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty""; ""5 Overarching Recommendations""; ""References""; ""Appendixes""; ""Appendix A Acronyms and Initialisms""; ""Appendix B List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process""; ""Appendix C Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff"" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910452147003321 |
| Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, c2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Completing the forecast [[electronic resource] ] : characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts / / Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies
| Completing the forecast [[electronic resource] ] : characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts / / Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, c2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (125 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Soggetto topico |
Weather
Weather forecasting Climatic changes - Environmental aspects |
| ISBN |
0-309-18053-8
1-280-70490-X 9786610704903 0-309-66261-3 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | ""Front Matter""; ""Preface""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Contents""; ""Summary""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Uncertainty in Decision Making""; ""3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty""; ""4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty""; ""5 Overarching Recommendations""; ""References""; ""Appendixes""; ""Appendix A Acronyms and Initialisms""; ""Appendix B List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process""; ""Appendix C Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff"" |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910777794403321 |
| Washington, D.C., : National Academies Press, c2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Forecast verification [[electronic resource] ] : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science / / edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson
| Forecast verification [[electronic resource] ] : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science / / edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Chichester, U.K., : Wiley-Blackwell, 2012 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (304 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
JolliffeI. T
StephensonDavid B |
| Soggetto topico | Weather forecasting - Statistical methods - Evaluation |
| ISBN |
1-280-59124-2
9786613621078 1-119-96000-2 1-119-96001-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecast Verification; Contents; List of Contributors; Preface; Preface to the First Edition; 1 Introduction; 1.1 A brief history and current practice; 1.1.1 History; 1.1.2 Current practice; 1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits; 1.3 Types of forecast and verification data; 1.4 Scores, skill and value; 1.4.1 Skill scores; 1.4.2 Artificial skill; 1.4.3 Statistical significance; 1.4.4 Value added; 1.5 Data quality and other practical considerations; 1.6 Summary; 2 Basic concepts; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Types of predict and; 2.3 Exploratory methods
2.4 Numerical descriptive measures 2.5 Probability, random variables and expectations; 2.6 Joint, marginal and conditional distributions; 2.7 Accuracy, association and skill; 2.8 Properties of verification measures; 2.9 Verification as a regression problem; 2.10 The Murphy-Winkler framework; 2.11 Dimensionality of the verification problem; 3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Theoretical considerations; 3.2.1 Some basic descriptive statistics; 3.2.2 A general framework for verification: the distributions-oriented approach 3.2.3 Performance measures in terms of factorizations of the joint distribution 3.2.4 Diagrams for visualizing performance measures; 3.2.5 Case study: verification of cloud-fraction forecasts; 3.3 Signal detection theory and the ROC; 3.3.1 The signal detection model; 3.3.2 The relative operating characteristic (ROC); 3.4 Metaverification: criteria for assessing performance measures; 3.4.1 Desirable properties; 3.4.2 Other properties; 3.5 Performance measures; 3.5.1 Overview of performance measures; 3.5.2 Sampling uncertainty and confidence intervals for performance measures 3.5.3 Optimal threshold probabilities Acknowledgements; 4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The contingency table: notation, definitions, and measures of accuracy; 4.2.1 Notation and definitions; 4.2.2 Measures of accuracy; 4.3 Skill scores; 4.3.1 Desirable attributes; 4.3.2 Gandin and Murphy equitable scores; 4.3.3 Gerrity equitable scores; 4.3.4 LEPSCAT; 4.3.5 SEEPS; 4.3.6 Summary remarks on scores; 4.4 Sampling variability of the contingency table and skill scores; 5 Deterministic forecasts of continuous variables; 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Forecast examples 5.3 First-order moments; 5.3.1 Bias; 5.3.2 Mean Absolute Error; 5.3.3 Bias correction and artificial skill; 5.3.4 Mean absolute error and skill; 5.4 Second- and higher-order moments; 5.4.1 Mean Squared Error; 5.4.2 MSE skill score; 5.4.3 MSE of scaled forecasts; 5.4.4 Correlation; 5.4.5 An example: testing the 'limit of predictability'; 5.4.6 Rank correlations; 5.4.7 Comparison of moments of the marginal distributions; 5.4.8 Graphical summaries; 5.5 Scores based on cumulative frequency; 5.5.1 Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS); 5.5.2 Quantile-quantile plots 5.5.3 Conditional quantile plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910139692703321 |
| Chichester, U.K., : Wiley-Blackwell, 2012 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science / / edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson
| Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science / / edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Chichester, U.K., : Wiley-Blackwell, 2012 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (304 p.) |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
JolliffeI. T
StephensonDavid B |
| Soggetto topico | Weather forecasting - Statistical methods - Evaluation |
| ISBN |
1-280-59124-2
9786613621078 1-119-96000-2 1-119-96001-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecast Verification; Contents; List of Contributors; Preface; Preface to the First Edition; 1 Introduction; 1.1 A brief history and current practice; 1.1.1 History; 1.1.2 Current practice; 1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits; 1.3 Types of forecast and verification data; 1.4 Scores, skill and value; 1.4.1 Skill scores; 1.4.2 Artificial skill; 1.4.3 Statistical significance; 1.4.4 Value added; 1.5 Data quality and other practical considerations; 1.6 Summary; 2 Basic concepts; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Types of predict and; 2.3 Exploratory methods
2.4 Numerical descriptive measures 2.5 Probability, random variables and expectations; 2.6 Joint, marginal and conditional distributions; 2.7 Accuracy, association and skill; 2.8 Properties of verification measures; 2.9 Verification as a regression problem; 2.10 The Murphy-Winkler framework; 2.11 Dimensionality of the verification problem; 3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Theoretical considerations; 3.2.1 Some basic descriptive statistics; 3.2.2 A general framework for verification: the distributions-oriented approach 3.2.3 Performance measures in terms of factorizations of the joint distribution 3.2.4 Diagrams for visualizing performance measures; 3.2.5 Case study: verification of cloud-fraction forecasts; 3.3 Signal detection theory and the ROC; 3.3.1 The signal detection model; 3.3.2 The relative operating characteristic (ROC); 3.4 Metaverification: criteria for assessing performance measures; 3.4.1 Desirable properties; 3.4.2 Other properties; 3.5 Performance measures; 3.5.1 Overview of performance measures; 3.5.2 Sampling uncertainty and confidence intervals for performance measures 3.5.3 Optimal threshold probabilities Acknowledgements; 4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The contingency table: notation, definitions, and measures of accuracy; 4.2.1 Notation and definitions; 4.2.2 Measures of accuracy; 4.3 Skill scores; 4.3.1 Desirable attributes; 4.3.2 Gandin and Murphy equitable scores; 4.3.3 Gerrity equitable scores; 4.3.4 LEPSCAT; 4.3.5 SEEPS; 4.3.6 Summary remarks on scores; 4.4 Sampling variability of the contingency table and skill scores; 5 Deterministic forecasts of continuous variables; 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Forecast examples 5.3 First-order moments; 5.3.1 Bias; 5.3.2 Mean Absolute Error; 5.3.3 Bias correction and artificial skill; 5.3.4 Mean absolute error and skill; 5.4 Second- and higher-order moments; 5.4.1 Mean Squared Error; 5.4.2 MSE skill score; 5.4.3 MSE of scaled forecasts; 5.4.4 Correlation; 5.4.5 An example: testing the 'limit of predictability'; 5.4.6 Rank correlations; 5.4.7 Comparison of moments of the marginal distributions; 5.4.8 Graphical summaries; 5.5 Scores based on cumulative frequency; 5.5.1 Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS); 5.5.2 Quantile-quantile plots 5.5.3 Conditional quantile plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910823532903321 |
| Chichester, U.K., : Wiley-Blackwell, 2012 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Global weather prediction : the coming revolution / Edited by Bruce Lusignan and John Kiely
| Global weather prediction : the coming revolution / Edited by Bruce Lusignan and John Kiely |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa |
New York |
| Descrizione fisica | XI, 307 p. ; 25 cm. |
| Disciplina | 551.63 |
| Soggetto non controllato | Geofisica |
| ISBN | 03-082799-X |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNIPARTHENOPE-000027960 |
| New York <etc.> : Holt, Rinehart and Winston, c1970 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Parthenope | ||
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