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Front Cover -- Modeling of Transport Demand -- Modeling of Transport Demand -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 - Transport Demand and Factors Affecting It -- 1.1 THE BASIC DEFINITIONS RELATED TO TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 1.1.1 Transport and Human Life -- 1.1.2 Definition of Transport -- 1.1.3 The Various Transport Modes and Sectors -- 1.1.4 Definition and Characteristics of Transport Demand -- 1.1.4.1 Definition of Transport Demand -- 1.1.4.2 Principal Drivers of Transport Demand -- 1.1.4.3 Transport Demand for an Infrastructure Facility or Operation Company -- 1.1.4.4 Normal, Diverted, and Generated Demand -- 1.1.5 Definition of a Transport Model -- 1.1.6 Metrics and Units for the Description of Transport Demand -- 1.2 HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF TRANSPORT MODES AND DEMAND -- 1.3 HOW TRANSPORT DEMAND AFFECTS THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM -- 1.3.1 Transport Demand and Transport Infrastructure -- 1.3.1.1 Planning -- 1.3.1.2 Design and Construction -- 1.3.1.3 Degree of Deterioration and Maintenance -- 1.3.1.4 Operation of Infrastructure -- 1.3.1.5 Level of Saturation and Measures Required -- 1.3.2 Transport Demand and Operation -- 1.3.2.1 Number of Cars, Aircrafts, Railway Vehicles, Ships -- 1.3.2.2 Number of Personnel -- 1.3.2.3 Commercial and Tariff Policies, Revenues -- 1.3.3 Transport Demand and CO2 Emissions -- 1.4 THE OVERWHELMING AND REVOLUTIONARY EFFECTS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES -- 1.5 EVOLUTION OVER TIME OF THE PRINCIPAL DRIVERS OF TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 1.5.1 Passenger Transport -- 1.5.2 Freight Transport -- 1.6 HOW TRANSPORT DEMAND AFFECTS THE PLANNING OF THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM -- 1.6.1 Demand and Transportation10 Planning -- 1.6.2 Demand and Business and Master Plans -- 1.7 TRANSPORT DEMAND AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: COUPLING AND DECOUPLING -- 1.7.1 Correlation of Transport Demand With Economic Activity.
1.7.2 Coupling and Decoupling Between Transport Demand and Gross Domestic Product-Various Forms and Degrees of Decoupling -- 1.7.3 Factors Affecting the Degree of Decoupling Between Gross Domestic Product and Transport Demand-Passenger Transport -- 1.7.3.1 Limits of Available Time and Money -- 1.7.3.2 Effects of the Internet -- 1.7.3.3 Changes in Urban Development Patterns -- 1.7.3.4 Extensive Use of Global Positioning System, Car Sharing, and Carpooling -- 1.7.4 Factors Affecting the Degree of Decoupling Between Gross Domestic Product and Transport Demand-Freight Transport -- 1.7.4.1 Changes in the Composition of the Economy -- 1.7.4.2 Relocation of Manufacturing Activities -- 1.7.4.3 Economies of Scale and Concentration -- 1.7.4.4 Trade Liberalization -- 1.7.4.5 Environmental Tax -- 1.7.5 The Situation of Coupling and Decoupling for Some Countries -- 1.7.6 Transport Demand and Regional Development -- 1.8 FACTORS OF THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF TRANSPORT AND EFFECTS ON DEMAND -- 1.8.1 Transport as a System -- 1.8.2 The Internal and External Environment of Transport -- 1.8.3 Factors of the Internal Environment That Affect Demand -- 1.8.4 Factors of the External Environment That Affect Demand -- 1.8.4.1 Economic Growth, Purchasing Power, and Available Income for Transport -- 1.8.4.2 Energy Consumption -- 1.8.4.3 Culture, Lifestyle, and the Expectations of Society -- 1.8.4.4 Population -- 1.8.4.5 The Environment and Transport Demand -- 1.8.4.6 Institutional Framework and Transport Demand -- 1.8.4.7 Globalization, Liberalization, Competition, and Transport Demand -- 1.9 TRANSPORT DEMAND AND ELASTICITIES -- 1.9.1 A Definition and a Variety of Types of Elasticities -- 1.9.2 Price Elasticity -- 1.9.3 Income Elasticity -- 1.9.4 Cross-Elasticities -- 1.9.5 Evolution of Elasticities Over Time -- 2 - Evolution and Trends of Transport Demand.
2.1 DESCRIPTION OF TRANSPORT DEMAND: DATA, SURVEYS, AND DEGREE OF ACCURACY -- 2.1.1 Collection of Transport Data of the Past -- 2.1.2 Characteristics of Transport Data -- 2.1.3 Sources of Data -- 2.1.4 Information Related to Sources of Transport Data -- 2.1.5 The Internet Revolution-Big Data as a New Source of Transport Data -- 2.1.6 Sources of Transport Data Used in This Book -- 2.2 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF THE MODAL SPLIT OF EACH TRANSPORT MODE IN THE TRANSPORT MARKET -- 2.2.1 Passenger Transport -- 2.2.2 Freight Transport -- 2.3 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 2.3.1 Rates of Growth of Air Transport, Low Margins of Profit, and Cyclic Fluctuations -- 2.3.2 Factors Affecting Air Transport Demand -- 2.3.3 Scheduled, Charter, and Low-Cost Flights -- 2.3.4 Evolution and Trends of Air Passenger Demand -- 2.3.5 Evolution and Trends of Air Freight Demand -- 2.3.6 The Rise of Demand for Low-Cost Airlines -- 2.3.7 Evolution and Trends of Flight Departures -- 2.3.8 Evolution and Trends of Demand in Airports -- 2.4 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF RAIL TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 2.4.1 Rise and Decline of Railways -- 2.4.2 Evolution and Trends of Rail Passenger Demand -- 2.4.3 Evolution and Trends of Demand for High-Speed Trains -- 2.4.4 Evolution and Trends of Rail Freight Demand -- 2.4.5 Trends in the Global Railway Technologies Market -- 2.5 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF ROAD TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 2.5.1 The Private Car Ownership Index -- 2.5.2 Evolution and Trends of Production of Road Vehicles -- 2.5.3 Evolution and Trends of Road Traffic -- 2.5.4 Road Safety -- 2.6 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS RELATED TO ELECTRIC CAR TECHNOLOGY -- 2.6.1 Definition and Types of Electric Cars -- 2.6.2 Cost of Electric Cars -- 2.6.3 Evolution and Trends of the Electric Car Market -- 2.6.4 Principal Driving Factors for the Electric Car Market.
2.7 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF DEMAND OF METRO AND TRAM -- 2.8 EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF SEA TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 2.8.1 Sea Transport and Economic Activity -- 2.8.2 Products Transported by Sea -- 2.8.3 Evolution and Trends of Traffic of the Various Categories of Sea Transport -- 2.8.4 Evolution and Trends of Container Sea Traffic -- 2.8.5 Evolution of the World Fleet -- 3 - Methods of Modeling Transport Demand -- 3.1 STRUCTURE AND VARIABLES OF A TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL -- 3.1.1 Structure of a Transport Demand Model -- 3.1.2 Definition of a Variable -- 3.1.3 Numerical and Categorical Variables -- 3.1.4 Dependent and Independent Variables -- 3.1.5 Independent Variables of a Transport Demand Model -- 3.1.6 Proxy Variables -- 3.1.7 Dummy Variables -- 3.1.8 Linguistic Variables -- 3.1.9 Variables Used in a Logarithmic Form -- 3.1.10 Variables Within a Frame of Epistemological Approach -- 3.1.11 Endogenous and Exogenous Variables -- 3.2 TRANSPORT DEMAND IN A DETERMINISTIC OR PROBABILISTIC APPROACH -- 3.3 THE CHOICE BY A TRAVELER OF A TRANSPORT MODE-UTILITY THEORIES AND GENERALIZED COST OF TRANSPORT -- 3.3.1 Choice Among Many Alternative Transport Modes -- 3.3.2 Utility Theories -- 3.3.3 The Generalized Cost as a Specialization of the Utility Function for Transport -- 3.4 QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 3.4.1 Definition and Characteristics of Quantitative and Qualitative Methods -- 3.4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages -- 3.5 AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE MODELS -- 3.6 MODELS BASED ON STATISTICS AND COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE -- 3.7 MODEL SELECTION, CALIBRATION, ESTIMATION, AND VALIDATION -- 3.8 QUALITATIVE METHODS OF FORECAST OF TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 3.9 QUANTITATIVE METHODS OF FORECAST OF TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 3.9.1 Causal and Noncausal Methods -- 3.9.2 The Two Families of Quantitative Methods: Time Series and Econometric.
3.9.3 Econometric Methods, Econometrics, and Economic Theory -- 3.9.4 Econometric and Economic Models -- 3.9.5 Balance Between Simplicity and Complexity -- 3.9.6 Essential Qualities for a Good Causal Forecasting -- 3.9.7 Another Category of Quantitative Method: Gravity Models -- 3.10 A PANORAMA OF THE VARIOUS QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS -- 3.11 STATISTICAL AND OTHER METHODS USED IN QUANTITATIVE METHODS -- 3.12 SELECTION OF THE APPROPRIATE MODEL OF FORECAST OF TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 3.13 BIG DATA AND TRANSPORT DEMAND -- 3.13.1 Definition, Sources, and Characteristics of Big Data -- 3.13.1.1 Definition of Big Data -- 3.13.1.2 Sources of Big Data -- 3.13.1.3 Characteristics of Big Data -- 3.13.2 Technological Aspects of Big Data -- 3.13.3 Big Data and Privacy Rights -- 3.13.4 Applications of Big Data to Solve Some Transport Problems -- 3.13.5 Big Data, Social Networks, and Transport Demand -- 3.13.6 Some Applications of Big Data for the Forecast of Transport Demand -- 3.13.6.1 Is the Sample Representative of the Whole Population? -- 3.13.6.2 Use of Big Data for the Short-Term Forecast of Passenger Demand of an Airport -- 3.13.6.3 Use of Big Data for the Short-Term Forecast of Passenger Demand in Short-Shipping Routes -- 3.13.6.4 Use of Big Data for the Short-Term Forecast of Demand for Taxis of an Airport -- 3.13.7 Differences and Similarities Between Big Data and Traditional Methods for Transport Problems -- 4 - Executive Judgment, Delphi, Scenario Writing, and Survey Methods -- 4.1 THE EXECUTIVE JUDGMENT METHOD -- 4.1.1 Definition -- 4.1.2 Assumptions and Characteristics -- 4.1.3 The Scientific Background of the Method -- 4.1.4 Applications -- 4.2 THE DELPHI METHOD -- 4.2.1 Definition and Fundamentals -- 4.2.2 Cases of Use -- 4.2.3 Objectives -- 4.2.4 Procedure and Successive Stages -- 4.2.5 Characteristics and Features.
4.2.6 Areas and Sectors of Application.
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Mobility data-driven urban traffic monitoring / / Zhidan Liu, Kaishun Wu
