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Advances in economic forecasting [[electronic resource] /] / Matthew L. Higgins, editor
| Advances in economic forecasting [[electronic resource] /] / Matthew L. Higgins, editor |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Kalamazoo, Mich., : W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2011 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (192 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | HigginsMatthew L |
| Soggetto topico | Economic forecasting |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 0-88099-393-6 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Advances in economic forecasting / Matthew L. Higgins -- Real-time forecasting / Dean Croushore -- Limits to economic forecasting / Kajal Lahiri -- Forecasting regional and industry-level variables: challenges and strategies / David E. Rapach -- Forecasting asset prices using nonlinear models / Michael D. Bradley and Dennis W. Jansen -- Perspectives on evaluating macroeconomic forecasts / H. O. Stekler -- Combining forecasts with many predictors / Tae-Hwy Lee. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910457212803321 |
| Kalamazoo, Mich., : W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2011 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Demand-driven forecasting [[electronic resource]] : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr
| Demand-driven forecasting [[electronic resource]] : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr |
| Autore | Chase Charles |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (386 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Wiley & SAS Business Series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business forecasting Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-118-73557-9
1-118-69186-5 1-118-73564-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Demand-Driven Forecasting; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Author; Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE, AND PROCESSING REALITY; ART-OF-FORECASTING MYTH; END-CAP DISPLAY DILEMMA; REALITY OF JUDGMENTAL OVERRIDES; OVEN CLEANER CONNECTION; MORE IS NOT NECESSARILY BETTER; REALITY OF UNCONSTRAINED FORECASTS, CONSTRAINED FORECASTS, AND PLANS; NORTHEAST REGIONAL SALES COMPOSITE FORECAST; HOLD-AND-ROLL MYTH; THE PLAN THAT WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH; PACKAGE TO ORDER VERSUS MAKE TO ORDER; "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT?"; SUMMARY; NOTES
Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?TRANSITIONING FROM TRADITIONAL DEMAND FORECASTING; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE DEMAND-GENERATION PICTURE?; FUNDAMENTAL FLAW WITH TRADITIONAL DEMAND GENERATION; RELYING SOLELY ON A SUPPLY-DRIVEN STRATEGY IS NOT THE SOLUTION; WHAT IS DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING?; WHAT IS DEMAND SENSING AND SHAPING?; CHANGING THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS IS ESSENTIAL; COMMUNICATION IS KEY; MEASURING DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUCCESS; BENEFITS OF A DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING PROCESS; KEY STEPS TO IMPROVE THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS WHY HAVEN'T COMPANIES EMBRACED THE CONCEPT OF DEMAND-DRIVEN?Key Points; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods; UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY; DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF METHODS; HOW PREDICTABLE IS THE FUTURE?; SOME CAUSES OF FORECAST ERROR; SEGMENTING YOUR PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHOD; New Products Quadrant; Niche Brands Quadrant; Growth Brands Quadrant; Harvest Brands Quadrant; SUMMARY; NOTE; Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance; "WE OVERACHIEVED OUR FORECAST, SO LET'S PARTY!"; PURPOSES FOR MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE STANDARD STATISTICAL ERROR TERMSSPECIFIC MEASURES OF FORECAST ERROR; OUT-OF-SAMPLE MEASUREMENT; FORECAST VALUE ADDED; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL-FITTING PROCESS; INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; MOVING AVERAGING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HOLT'S TWO-PARAMETER METHOD; HOLT'S-WINTERS' METHOD; WINTERS' ADDITIVE SEASONALITY; Multiplicative versus Additive Seasonality; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 6 Regression Analysis; REGRESSION METHODS SIMPLE REGRESSIONCORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; DATA VISUALIZATION USING SCATTER PLOTS AND LINE GRAPHS; CORRELATION MATRIX; MULTICOLLINEARITY; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; F-TEST; ADJUSTED R2; PARAMETER COEFFICIENTS; t-TEST; P-VALUES; VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR; DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC; INTERVENTION VARIABLES (OR DUMMY VARIABLES); REGRESSION MODEL RESULTS; KEY ACTIVITIES IN BUILDING A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; CAUTIONS ABOUT REGRESSION MODELS; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 7 ARIMA Models; PHASE 1: IDENTIFYING THE TENTATIVE MODEL; Stationarity Analysis of the Autocorrelation Plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910139044003321 |
Chase Charles
|
||
| Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Demand-driven forecasting : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr
| Demand-driven forecasting : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr |
| Autore | Chase Charles |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (386 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Wiley & SAS Business Series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business forecasting Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-118-73557-9
1-118-69186-5 1-118-73564-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Demand-Driven Forecasting; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Author; Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE, AND PROCESSING REALITY; ART-OF-FORECASTING MYTH; END-CAP DISPLAY DILEMMA; REALITY OF JUDGMENTAL OVERRIDES; OVEN CLEANER CONNECTION; MORE IS NOT NECESSARILY BETTER; REALITY OF UNCONSTRAINED FORECASTS, CONSTRAINED FORECASTS, AND PLANS; NORTHEAST REGIONAL SALES COMPOSITE FORECAST; HOLD-AND-ROLL MYTH; THE PLAN THAT WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH; PACKAGE TO ORDER VERSUS MAKE TO ORDER; "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT?"; SUMMARY; NOTES
Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?TRANSITIONING FROM TRADITIONAL DEMAND FORECASTING; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE DEMAND-GENERATION PICTURE?; FUNDAMENTAL FLAW WITH TRADITIONAL DEMAND GENERATION; RELYING SOLELY ON A SUPPLY-DRIVEN STRATEGY IS NOT THE SOLUTION; WHAT IS DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING?; WHAT IS DEMAND SENSING AND SHAPING?; CHANGING THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS IS ESSENTIAL; COMMUNICATION IS KEY; MEASURING DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUCCESS; BENEFITS OF A DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING PROCESS; KEY STEPS TO IMPROVE THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS WHY HAVEN'T COMPANIES EMBRACED THE CONCEPT OF DEMAND-DRIVEN?Key Points; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods; UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY; DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF METHODS; HOW PREDICTABLE IS THE FUTURE?; SOME CAUSES OF FORECAST ERROR; SEGMENTING YOUR PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHOD; New Products Quadrant; Niche Brands Quadrant; Growth Brands Quadrant; Harvest Brands Quadrant; SUMMARY; NOTE; Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance; "WE OVERACHIEVED OUR FORECAST, SO LET'S PARTY!"; PURPOSES FOR MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE STANDARD STATISTICAL ERROR TERMSSPECIFIC MEASURES OF FORECAST ERROR; OUT-OF-SAMPLE MEASUREMENT; FORECAST VALUE ADDED; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL-FITTING PROCESS; INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; MOVING AVERAGING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HOLT'S TWO-PARAMETER METHOD; HOLT'S-WINTERS' METHOD; WINTERS' ADDITIVE SEASONALITY; Multiplicative versus Additive Seasonality; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 6 Regression Analysis; REGRESSION METHODS SIMPLE REGRESSIONCORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; DATA VISUALIZATION USING SCATTER PLOTS AND LINE GRAPHS; CORRELATION MATRIX; MULTICOLLINEARITY; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; F-TEST; ADJUSTED R2; PARAMETER COEFFICIENTS; t-TEST; P-VALUES; VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR; DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC; INTERVENTION VARIABLES (OR DUMMY VARIABLES); REGRESSION MODEL RESULTS; KEY ACTIVITIES IN BUILDING A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; CAUTIONS ABOUT REGRESSION MODELS; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 7 ARIMA Models; PHASE 1: IDENTIFYING THE TENTATIVE MODEL; Stationarity Analysis of the Autocorrelation Plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815808903321 |
|
Chase Charles
|
||
| Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910461478603321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910790458203321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910824963003321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910132307403321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815689203321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||