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Advances in economic forecasting [[electronic resource] /] / Matthew L. Higgins, editor
| Advances in economic forecasting [[electronic resource] /] / Matthew L. Higgins, editor |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Kalamazoo, Mich., : W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2011 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (192 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | HigginsMatthew L |
| Soggetto topico | Economic forecasting |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 0-88099-393-6 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Advances in economic forecasting / Matthew L. Higgins -- Real-time forecasting / Dean Croushore -- Limits to economic forecasting / Kajal Lahiri -- Forecasting regional and industry-level variables: challenges and strategies / David E. Rapach -- Forecasting asset prices using nonlinear models / Michael D. Bradley and Dennis W. Jansen -- Perspectives on evaluating macroeconomic forecasts / H. O. Stekler -- Combining forecasts with many predictors / Tae-Hwy Lee. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910457212803321 |
| Kalamazoo, Mich., : W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2011 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Demand-driven forecasting [[electronic resource]] : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr
| Demand-driven forecasting [[electronic resource]] : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr |
| Autore | Chase Charles |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (386 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Wiley & SAS Business Series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business forecasting Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-118-73557-9
1-118-69186-5 1-118-73564-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Demand-Driven Forecasting; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Author; Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE, AND PROCESSING REALITY; ART-OF-FORECASTING MYTH; END-CAP DISPLAY DILEMMA; REALITY OF JUDGMENTAL OVERRIDES; OVEN CLEANER CONNECTION; MORE IS NOT NECESSARILY BETTER; REALITY OF UNCONSTRAINED FORECASTS, CONSTRAINED FORECASTS, AND PLANS; NORTHEAST REGIONAL SALES COMPOSITE FORECAST; HOLD-AND-ROLL MYTH; THE PLAN THAT WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH; PACKAGE TO ORDER VERSUS MAKE TO ORDER; "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT?"; SUMMARY; NOTES
Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?TRANSITIONING FROM TRADITIONAL DEMAND FORECASTING; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE DEMAND-GENERATION PICTURE?; FUNDAMENTAL FLAW WITH TRADITIONAL DEMAND GENERATION; RELYING SOLELY ON A SUPPLY-DRIVEN STRATEGY IS NOT THE SOLUTION; WHAT IS DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING?; WHAT IS DEMAND SENSING AND SHAPING?; CHANGING THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS IS ESSENTIAL; COMMUNICATION IS KEY; MEASURING DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUCCESS; BENEFITS OF A DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING PROCESS; KEY STEPS TO IMPROVE THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS WHY HAVEN'T COMPANIES EMBRACED THE CONCEPT OF DEMAND-DRIVEN?Key Points; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods; UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY; DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF METHODS; HOW PREDICTABLE IS THE FUTURE?; SOME CAUSES OF FORECAST ERROR; SEGMENTING YOUR PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHOD; New Products Quadrant; Niche Brands Quadrant; Growth Brands Quadrant; Harvest Brands Quadrant; SUMMARY; NOTE; Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance; "WE OVERACHIEVED OUR FORECAST, SO LET'S PARTY!"; PURPOSES FOR MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE STANDARD STATISTICAL ERROR TERMSSPECIFIC MEASURES OF FORECAST ERROR; OUT-OF-SAMPLE MEASUREMENT; FORECAST VALUE ADDED; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL-FITTING PROCESS; INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; MOVING AVERAGING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HOLT'S TWO-PARAMETER METHOD; HOLT'S-WINTERS' METHOD; WINTERS' ADDITIVE SEASONALITY; Multiplicative versus Additive Seasonality; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 6 Regression Analysis; REGRESSION METHODS SIMPLE REGRESSIONCORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; DATA VISUALIZATION USING SCATTER PLOTS AND LINE GRAPHS; CORRELATION MATRIX; MULTICOLLINEARITY; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; F-TEST; ADJUSTED R2; PARAMETER COEFFICIENTS; t-TEST; P-VALUES; VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR; DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC; INTERVENTION VARIABLES (OR DUMMY VARIABLES); REGRESSION MODEL RESULTS; KEY ACTIVITIES IN BUILDING A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; CAUTIONS ABOUT REGRESSION MODELS; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 7 ARIMA Models; PHASE 1: IDENTIFYING THE TENTATIVE MODEL; Stationarity Analysis of the Autocorrelation Plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910139044003321 |
Chase Charles
|
||
| Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Demand-driven forecasting : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr
| Demand-driven forecasting : a structured approach to forecasting / / Charles W. Chase, Jr |
| Autore | Chase Charles |
| Edizione | [2nd ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (386 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Wiley & SAS Business Series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business forecasting Forecasting |
| ISBN |
9781118735572
1118735579 9781118691861 1118691865 9781118735640 1118735641 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Demand-Driven Forecasting; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Author; Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE, AND PROCESSING REALITY; ART-OF-FORECASTING MYTH; END-CAP DISPLAY DILEMMA; REALITY OF JUDGMENTAL OVERRIDES; OVEN CLEANER CONNECTION; MORE IS NOT NECESSARILY BETTER; REALITY OF UNCONSTRAINED FORECASTS, CONSTRAINED FORECASTS, AND PLANS; NORTHEAST REGIONAL SALES COMPOSITE FORECAST; HOLD-AND-ROLL MYTH; THE PLAN THAT WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH; PACKAGE TO ORDER VERSUS MAKE TO ORDER; "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT?"; SUMMARY; NOTES
Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?TRANSITIONING FROM TRADITIONAL DEMAND FORECASTING; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE DEMAND-GENERATION PICTURE?; FUNDAMENTAL FLAW WITH TRADITIONAL DEMAND GENERATION; RELYING SOLELY ON A SUPPLY-DRIVEN STRATEGY IS NOT THE SOLUTION; WHAT IS DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING?; WHAT IS DEMAND SENSING AND SHAPING?; CHANGING THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS IS ESSENTIAL; COMMUNICATION IS KEY; MEASURING DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUCCESS; BENEFITS OF A DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING PROCESS; KEY STEPS TO IMPROVE THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS WHY HAVEN'T COMPANIES EMBRACED THE CONCEPT OF DEMAND-DRIVEN?Key Points; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods; UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY; DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF METHODS; HOW PREDICTABLE IS THE FUTURE?; SOME CAUSES OF FORECAST ERROR; SEGMENTING YOUR PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHOD; New Products Quadrant; Niche Brands Quadrant; Growth Brands Quadrant; Harvest Brands Quadrant; SUMMARY; NOTE; Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance; "WE OVERACHIEVED OUR FORECAST, SO LET'S PARTY!"; PURPOSES FOR MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE STANDARD STATISTICAL ERROR TERMSSPECIFIC MEASURES OF FORECAST ERROR; OUT-OF-SAMPLE MEASUREMENT; FORECAST VALUE ADDED; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL-FITTING PROCESS; INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; MOVING AVERAGING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HOLT'S TWO-PARAMETER METHOD; HOLT'S-WINTERS' METHOD; WINTERS' ADDITIVE SEASONALITY; Multiplicative versus Additive Seasonality; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 6 Regression Analysis; REGRESSION METHODS SIMPLE REGRESSIONCORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; DATA VISUALIZATION USING SCATTER PLOTS AND LINE GRAPHS; CORRELATION MATRIX; MULTICOLLINEARITY; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; F-TEST; ADJUSTED R2; PARAMETER COEFFICIENTS; t-TEST; P-VALUES; VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR; DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC; INTERVENTION VARIABLES (OR DUMMY VARIABLES); REGRESSION MODEL RESULTS; KEY ACTIVITIES IN BUILDING A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; CAUTIONS ABOUT REGRESSION MODELS; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 7 ARIMA Models; PHASE 1: IDENTIFYING THE TENTATIVE MODEL; Stationarity Analysis of the Autocorrelation Plots |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815808903321 |
|
Chase Charles
|
||
| Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910461478603321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation [[electronic resource] ] : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910790458203321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Global model simulation : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi
| Global model simulation : a frontier of economic science / / Akira Onishi |
| Autore | Ōnishi Akira <1929-> |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (199 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Collana | Economic issues, problems and perspectives series |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting - Mathematical models
Sustainable development - Mathematical models Globalization |
| ISBN | 1-61324-955-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Intro -- GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATION: A FRONTIER OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE -- GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATION: A FRONTIER OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION -- Chapter 2 OUTLINE OF FUGI GLOBAL MODELING SYSTEM -- 2.1. REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION -- 2.2. INTEGRATED MULTIDISCIPLINARY SYSTEMS ANALYSIS -- 2.3. STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE -- 2.4. GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE TABLE -- 2.5. POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE TABLE -- 2.6. SOFTWARE OF FUGI GLOBAL MODELING SYSTEM -- 2.7. MAIN SUBSYSTEMS: POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT -- Population System -- Energy System -- Environment -- Economic Development System -- Labor and Production at Constant Prices -- Expenditures on GDP at Constant Prices -- Income Distribution - Profits and Wages -- Prices -- Expenditures on GDP at Current Prices -- Money, Interest Rates and Financial Assets -- International Balance of Payments -- Official Development Assistance -- Foreign Exchange Rates -- Chapter 3 EXAMPLES OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS OF GLOBAL MODEL -- Chapter 4 FUTURE SIMULATIONS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY, 2009-2020 -- SCENARIO A: G20 COLLABORATION -- Chapter 5 ALTERNATIVE PATH OF GLOBAL ECONOMY AGAINST CO2 EMISSIONS -- 5.1. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT INDICATORS: CO2 EMISSIONS -- 5.2. ALTERNATIVE PATH OF GLOBAL ECONOMY AGAINST CO2 EMISSIONS. SCENARIO B: GLOBAL CO-OPERATION FOR "GREEN REVOLUTION" -- Scenario B: Global Cooperation and Concerted Policy for Green Revolution -- Developed Economies* -- Developing Countries + Economies in Transition -- Chapter 6 POLICY EXERCISE AND SIMULATIONS OF FUTURES -- 1. Impacts of Oil Saving Technology on Oil Prices in the Futures -- 2. Impacts of New Technology Investment Supported by R& -- D on the World Economy -- 3. Appropriate Trade Policy against a New Global Economic Crisis.
4. Expansion of Private Foreign Direct Investment Coupled with ODA -- 5. Needs for Shortening Regular Labor Hours and Days to Improve Unemployment and Quality of Life -- 6. Role of Education and Healthcare -- 7. Needs for Cosmic Mind -- Chapter 7 CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX A: FUGI GLOBAL MODELING SYSTEM (FGMS200) -- I: POPULATION: (E001-E019) -- II: FOODS: (E020-E029) -- III: ENERGY: (E030-069) -- IV: ENVIRONMENT: (E070 - E099) (ECOSYSTEM) -- V: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: (E100 - E899) -- 1. Labor and Production < -- At Constant Prices > -- : (E100 - E139) -- 2. Expenditure on GDP < -- at Constant Prices > -- : (E140 - E199) -- 3. Income Distribution: Profit - Wage: (E200 - E249) -- 4. Prices: (E250 - E299) -- 5. Expenditure on GDP < -- at Current Prices > -- -- 6. Money, Interest Rates and Financial Assets: (E400- E499) -- 7. Government Finance: (E500 - E599) -- Type A -- Type B < -- JPN> -- Type -- 8. International Balance of Payments: (E600 - E659) -- 9. International Finance: (E700 - E799) -- 10. Foreign Exchange Rate: (E800-849) -- 11. Development indicators: (E850 - E869). -- VI: PEACE AND SECURITY: (E870 - E879) -- VII: HUMAN RIGHTS: (E880 - E889) -- *VIII: HEALTH CARE : (E900 - E919) -- * IX: DIGITAL DIVIDE (INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY): (E920 - E939) -- GLOSARY NOTES -- EXPLANATORY NOTES -- Data Source -- A) CD-ROM, Floppy disk and MT -- B) Publication -- VARIABLE LIST -- APPENDIX B: WORLD TRADE MATRIX: A - SUMMARY TABLE (MILLIONS OF CURRENT US DOLLARS) -- APPENDIX C: WORLD POPULATION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY -- INDEX -- Blank Page. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910968262403321 |
|
Ōnishi Akira <1929->
|
||
| New York, : Nova Science Publishers, c2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910132307403321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815689203321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||