Human Judgment : How Accurate Is It, and How Can It Get Better? / / John Wilcox

• Autore: Wilcox John
• Pubblicazione: Cham, Switzerland : , : Springer, , [2022]; ©2022
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (157 pages)
• Disciplina: 153.46
• Soggetto topico: Decision making - Psychological aspects; Judgment; Criteri; Presa de decisions; Aspectes psicològics
• Soggetto genere / forma: Llibres electrònics
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (pages 145-146) and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Testimonies -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 Judgmental Accuracy: Why It Is Important -- 1.2 The Focus of This Book -- 1.3 How This Book Was Researched -- 1.4 Intended Audiences and How to Read This Book -- 1.5 Structure of This Book -- References -- Chapter 2: What Is Judgmental Accuracy: Concepts and Measurement -- 2.1 What Judgmental Accuracy Involves: Correspondence and Confidence -- 2.1.1 Objective Truth and the Correspondence Theory -- 2.1.2 Misconceptions About Objective Truth -- 2.1.2.1 Objection #1: The Diversity of Opinions About Truth -- 2.1.2.2 Objection #2: The Subjectivity of Truths About Money or Other Topics -- 2.1.2.3 Objection #3: Track Record of Failures to Grasp Truth -- 2.1.2.4 Objection #4: There Is No Way to Tell Truth -- 2.1.2.5 Objection #5: Truth Depends on Language -- 2.1.2.6 Objection #6: The Ambiguity and Vagueness of Language -- 2.1.2.7 Objection #7: Alternative Definitions of Objectivity -- 2.1.3 Why Does It Matter? -- 2.1.4 Degrees of Confidence -- 2.2 How Do We Measure Judgmental Accuracy: Calibration, Resolution, and Friends -- 2.2.1 Measurement Validity: Internal and External -- 2.2.2 A Good Measure of Accuracy: Binned Calibration and Resolution -- 2.2.3 Less Good Measures of Accuracy -- 2.2.3.1 Unbinned Calibration -- 2.2.3.2 Brier Scores -- 2.2.4 Measures of Collective Accuracy -- 2.2.4.1 Unweighted Binned Calibration -- 2.2.4.2 Unbinned Calibration -- 2.2.4.3 Brier Scores -- 2.2.4.4 Weighted Binned Calibration -- 2.3 Summary -- References -- Chapter 3: What We Think: The Accuracy of Our Judgments -- 3.1 Who Is Accurate: How Society Flies Blind -- 3.2 How Accurate Are Cultures: Inaccuracy in Cross-Cultural Psychology -- 3.3 How Accurate Are Medical Professionals: Inaccuracy in Medicine -- 3.4 How Accurate Are Political Experts: Inaccuracy in Political Judgment. ; 3.5 How Accurate Are Judges and Juries: Inaccuracy in Law -- 3.6 Other Evidence of Inaccuracy: Disagreement -- 3.7 Contexts with Underconfidence -- 3.8 Summary -- References -- Chapter 4: How We Evaluate Our Thinking: The Accuracy of Our Metacognition -- 4.1 Evidence of Metacognitive Inaccuracy -- 4.2 Explanations of Metacognitive Inaccuracy -- 4.3 Summary -- References -- Chapter 5: How We Think: The Rationality of Our Reasoning -- 5.1 Rationality, Heuristics, and Biases -- 5.2 Dual-Process Theory: System 1 and System 2 -- 5.3 Misconceptions About Heuristics and Type 1 Processing -- 5.4 Search Heuristics and Inference Heuristics -- 5.4.1 Motivation, Search Heuristics, and Confirmation Bias -- 5.4.2 Availability Heuristic -- 5.4.3 Representativeness Heuristic -- 5.4.4 Anchoring Heuristic -- 5.4.5 Motivated Reasoning -- 5.5 Social Influences -- 5.6 Summary -- References -- Chapter 6: How We Were Made: The Evolutionary Origins of Thought -- 6.1 Evolution, Functions, and the Intellectualist View -- 6.2 Mercier and Sperber's Interactionist Approach -- 6.3 Critical Evaluation of Mercier and Sperber's Arguments -- 6.4 Tangential Interlude: The Harm of Confirmation Bias -- 6.5 Summary -- References -- Chapter 7: What Correlates with Accuracy: The Empirical Epistemology of Optimal Cognition -- 7.1 Empirical Epistemology -- 7.2 The Domain Generality of Empirical Epistemology -- 7.3 Insights from Empirical Epistemology -- 7.3.1 Situational Variables -- 7.3.2 Motivational Variables -- 7.3.3 Cognitive Variables -- 7.3.4 Metacognitive Variables -- 7.3.5 What Does Not Correlate with Accuracy -- 7.4 Summary -- References -- Chapter 8: How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendations About Human Judgment -- 8.1 Category 1: Improving Our Own Judgments -- 8.1.1 Foster Motivation -- 8.1.2 Become Accountable -- 8.1.3 Track Your Accuracy. ; 8.1.4 Be Your Own Skeptic: Expect Inaccuracy and Embrace Humility -- 8.1.5 Beware of Intuition -- 8.1.6 Practice Active Open-Minded Thinking -- 8.1.7 Gather Subject-Specific Knowledge and from Diverse Sources -- 8.1.8 Use Statistics, Especially Base Rates -- 8.1.9 Average Estimates from Conflicting Sources -- 8.1.10 Test for Scope Sensitivity -- 8.1.11 Do Postmortems -- 8.1.12 Take Some Training -- 8.2 Category 2: Estimating the Accuracy of Other Sources -- 8.2.1 Be Skeptical of Judgment, But Not Too Skeptical -- 8.2.2 Estimate Accuracy Based on Track Records -- 8.2.3 Look for Models or Theories with Track Records of Accuracy -- 8.2.4 Pay Attention to Qualifiers -- 8.2.5 Do Not Estimate Accuracy Based on One-Off Successes or Failures -- 8.2.6 Do Not Always Estimate Accuracy from Years of Experience, Education, Fame, or Confidence Levels -- 8.2.7 Trust Experts, But Not Too Much -- 8.2.8 Listen to Non-Experts, But Not Uncritically -- 8.2.9 Beware of Negative Social Influences -- 8.2.10 Tolerate Length and Nuance -- 8.3 Category 3: Managing Businesses or Other Organizations -- 8.3.1 Adopt all the Recommendations in the Previous Category -- 8.3.2 Promote Motivation and Accountability in Your Organization -- 8.3.3 Measure Track Records -- 8.3.4 Give Feedback -- 8.3.5 Expect Backlash from the Inaccurate -- 8.3.6 When Possible, Create Teams, Especially of Those with the Best Track Records -- 8.3.7 Give Training -- 8.3.8 Make Accuracy Profitable -- References -- Chapter 9: Conclusion -- Appendix: Judgments and Emotions -- The Close Connection Between Judgment and Emotions -- Cognitive Behavioral Therapy -- Step One: Understanding Emotions Via Understanding Their Underlying Judgments -- Step Two: Challenging Judgments -- References -- Index.
• Titolo autorizzato: Human Judgment
• ISBN: 9783031192050; 9783031192043
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910639879803321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: SpringerBriefs in psychology.