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Forecasting with dynamic regression models [[electronic resource] /] / Alan Pankratz
| Forecasting with dynamic regression models [[electronic resource] /] / Alan Pankratz |
| Autore | Pankratz Alan <1944-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : John Wiley & Sons, 1991 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (410 p.) |
| Disciplina |
519.5/5
519.55 |
| Collana | Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics. Applied probability and statistics |
| Soggetto topico |
Time-series analysis
Regression analysis Prediction theory |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-283-44612-X
9786613446121 1-118-15052-X 1-118-15078-3 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models; Contents; Preface; Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview; 1.1 Related Time Series; 1.2 Overview: Dynamic Regression Models; 1.3 Box and Jenkins' Modeling Strategy; 1.4 Correlation; 1.5 Layout of the Book; Questions and Problems; Chapter 2 A Primer on ARIMA Models; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Stationary Variance and Mean; 2.3 Autocorrelation; 2.4 Five Stationary ARIMA Processes; 2.5 ARIMA Modeling in Practice; 2.6 Backshift Notation; 2.7 Seasonal Models; 2.8 Combined Nonseasonal and Seasonal Processes; 2.9 Forecasting; 2.10 Extended Autocorrelation Function
2.11 Interpreting ARIMA Model ForecastsQuestions and Problems; Case 1 Federal Government Receipts (ARIMA); Chapter 3 A Primer on Regression Models; 3.1 Two Types of Data; 3.2 The Population Regression Function (PRF) with One Input; 3.3 The Sample Regression Function (SRF) with One Input; 3.4 Properties of the Least-Squares Estimators; 3.5 Goodness of Fit (R2); 3.6 Statistical Inference; 3.7 Multiple Regression; 3.8 Selected Issues in Regression; 3.9 Application to Time Series Data; Questions and Problems; Case 2 Federal Government Receipts (Dynamic Regression); Case 3 Kilowatt-Hours Used Chapter 4 Rational Distributed Lag Models4.1 Linear Distributed Lag Transfer Functions; 4.2 A Special Case: The Koyck Model; 4.3 Rational Distributed Lags; 4.4 The Complete Rational Form DR Model and Some Special Cases 163; Questions and Problems; Chapter 5 Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Identification; 5.1 Overview; 5.2 Preliminary Modeling Steps; 5.3 The Linear Transfer Function (LTF) Identification Method; 5.4 Rules for Identifying Rational Distributed Lag Transfer Functions; Questions and Problems; Appendix 5A The Corner Table Appendix 5B Transfer Function Identification Using Prewhitening and Cross CorrelationsChapter 6 Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Checking, Reformulation and Evaluation; 6.1 Diagnostic Checking and Model Reformulation; 6.2 Evaluating Estimation Stage Results; Questions and Problems; Case 4 Housing Starts and Sales; Case 5 Industrial Production, Stock Prices, and Vendor Performance; Chapter 7 Intervention Analysis; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Pulse Interventions; 7.3 Step Interventions; 7.4 Building Intervention Models; 7.5 Multiple and Compound Interventions; Questions and Problems Case 6 Year-End LoadingChapter 8 Intervention and Outlier Detection and Treatment; 8.1 The Rationale for Intervention and Outlier Detection; 8.2 Models for Intervention and Outlier Detection; 8.3 Likelihood Ratio Criteria; 8.4 An Iterative Detection Procedure; 8.5 Application; 8.6 Detected Events Near the End of a Series; Questions and Problems; Appendix 8A BASIC Program to Detect AO, LS, and IO Events; Appendix 8B Specifying IO Events in the SCA System; Chapter 9 Estimation and Forecasting; 9.1 DR Model Estimation; 9.2 Forecasting; Questions and Problems Appendix 9A A BASIC Routine for Computing the Nonbiasing Factor in (9.2.24) |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910139721303321 |
Pankratz Alan <1944->
|
||
| New York, : John Wiley & Sons, 1991 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecasting with dynamic regression models [[electronic resource] /] / Alan Pankratz
| Forecasting with dynamic regression models [[electronic resource] /] / Alan Pankratz |
| Autore | Pankratz Alan <1944-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : John Wiley & Sons, 1991 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (410 p.) |
| Disciplina |
519.5/5
519.55 |
| Collana | Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics. Applied probability and statistics |
| Soggetto topico |
Time-series analysis
Regression analysis Prediction theory |
| ISBN |
1-283-44612-X
9786613446121 1-118-15052-X 1-118-15078-3 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models; Contents; Preface; Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview; 1.1 Related Time Series; 1.2 Overview: Dynamic Regression Models; 1.3 Box and Jenkins' Modeling Strategy; 1.4 Correlation; 1.5 Layout of the Book; Questions and Problems; Chapter 2 A Primer on ARIMA Models; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Stationary Variance and Mean; 2.3 Autocorrelation; 2.4 Five Stationary ARIMA Processes; 2.5 ARIMA Modeling in Practice; 2.6 Backshift Notation; 2.7 Seasonal Models; 2.8 Combined Nonseasonal and Seasonal Processes; 2.9 Forecasting; 2.10 Extended Autocorrelation Function
2.11 Interpreting ARIMA Model ForecastsQuestions and Problems; Case 1 Federal Government Receipts (ARIMA); Chapter 3 A Primer on Regression Models; 3.1 Two Types of Data; 3.2 The Population Regression Function (PRF) with One Input; 3.3 The Sample Regression Function (SRF) with One Input; 3.4 Properties of the Least-Squares Estimators; 3.5 Goodness of Fit (R2); 3.6 Statistical Inference; 3.7 Multiple Regression; 3.8 Selected Issues in Regression; 3.9 Application to Time Series Data; Questions and Problems; Case 2 Federal Government Receipts (Dynamic Regression); Case 3 Kilowatt-Hours Used Chapter 4 Rational Distributed Lag Models4.1 Linear Distributed Lag Transfer Functions; 4.2 A Special Case: The Koyck Model; 4.3 Rational Distributed Lags; 4.4 The Complete Rational Form DR Model and Some Special Cases 163; Questions and Problems; Chapter 5 Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Identification; 5.1 Overview; 5.2 Preliminary Modeling Steps; 5.3 The Linear Transfer Function (LTF) Identification Method; 5.4 Rules for Identifying Rational Distributed Lag Transfer Functions; Questions and Problems; Appendix 5A The Corner Table Appendix 5B Transfer Function Identification Using Prewhitening and Cross CorrelationsChapter 6 Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Checking, Reformulation and Evaluation; 6.1 Diagnostic Checking and Model Reformulation; 6.2 Evaluating Estimation Stage Results; Questions and Problems; Case 4 Housing Starts and Sales; Case 5 Industrial Production, Stock Prices, and Vendor Performance; Chapter 7 Intervention Analysis; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Pulse Interventions; 7.3 Step Interventions; 7.4 Building Intervention Models; 7.5 Multiple and Compound Interventions; Questions and Problems Case 6 Year-End LoadingChapter 8 Intervention and Outlier Detection and Treatment; 8.1 The Rationale for Intervention and Outlier Detection; 8.2 Models for Intervention and Outlier Detection; 8.3 Likelihood Ratio Criteria; 8.4 An Iterative Detection Procedure; 8.5 Application; 8.6 Detected Events Near the End of a Series; Questions and Problems; Appendix 8A BASIC Program to Detect AO, LS, and IO Events; Appendix 8B Specifying IO Events in the SCA System; Chapter 9 Estimation and Forecasting; 9.1 DR Model Estimation; 9.2 Forecasting; Questions and Problems Appendix 9A A BASIC Routine for Computing the Nonbiasing Factor in (9.2.24) |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910829964503321 |
|
Pankratz Alan <1944->
|
||
| New York, : John Wiley & Sons, 1991 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models [[electronic resource] ] : concepts and cases / / Alan Pankratz
| Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models [[electronic resource] ] : concepts and cases / / Alan Pankratz |
| Autore | Pankratz Alan <1944-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Wiley, c1983 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (587 p.) |
| Disciplina |
519.54
519.55 |
| Collana | Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics. Probability and mathematical statistics. |
| Soggetto topico |
Time-series analysis
Prediction theory |
| ISBN |
1-282-30785-1
9786612307850 0-470-31656-X 0-470-31727-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecasting With Univariate Box- Jenkins Models CONCEPTS AND CASES; CONTENTS; PART I. BASIC CONCEPTS; 1 Overview; 1.1 Planning and forecasting; 1.2 What this book is about; 1.3 Time-series data; 1.4 Single-series (univariate) analysis; 1.5 When may UBJ models be used?; 1.6 The Box-Jenkins modeling procedure; 1.7 UBJ models compared with other models; Summary; Questions and problems; 2 Introduction to Box-Jenkins analysis of a single data series; 2.1 Differencing; 2.2 Deviations from the mean
2.3 Two analytical tools: the estimated autocorrelation function (acf) and estimated partial autocorrelation function (pacf)Summary; Questions and problems; 3 Underlying statistical principles; 3.1 Process, realization, and model; 3.2 Two common processes; 3.3 Statistical inference at the identification stage; Summary; Appendix 3 A: Expected value rules and definitions; Questions and problems; 4 An introduction to the practice of ARIMA modeling; 4.1 What is a good model?; 4.2 Two examples of UBJ-ARIMA modeling; Summary; Questions and problems; 5 Notation and the interpretation of ARIMA models 5.1 Three processes and ARIMA (p,d,q) notation5.2 Backshift notation; 5.3 Interpreting ARIMA models I: optimal extrapolation of past values of a single series; 5.4 Interpreting ARIMA models II: rationalizing them from their context; 5.5 Interpreting ARIMA models III: ARIMA(O,d,q) models as exponentially weighted moving averages; Summary; Questions and problems; 6 Identification: stationary models; 6.1 Theoretical acfs and pacf's for five common processes; 6.2 Stationarity; 6.3 Invertibility; 6.4 Deriving theoretical acf's for the MA(1) process 6.5 Deriving theoretical acf's for the AR(1) processSummary; Appendix 6A: The formal conditions for stationarity and invertibility; Appendix 6B Invertibility, uniqueness,and forecast performance; Questions and problems; 7 Identification: nonstationary models; 7.1 Nonstationary mean; 7.2 Nonstationary variance; 7.3 Differencing and deterministic trends; Summary; Appendix 7A: Integration; 8 Estimation; 8.1 Principles of estimation; 8.2 Nonlinear least-squares estimation; 8.3 Estimation-stage results: have we found a good model?; Summary; Appendix 8A: Marquardt's compromise; 8A.1 Overview 8A.2 Application to an MA(1)Appendix 8B: Backcasting; 8B.1 Conditional least squares; 8B.2 Unconditional least squares; 9 Diagnostic checking; 9.1 Are the random shocks independent?; 9.2 Other diagnostic checks; 9.3 Reformulating a model; Summary; Questions and problems; 10 Forecasting; 10.1 The algebra of ARIMA forecasts; 10.2 The dispersion of ARIMA forecasts; 10.3 Forecasting from data in logarithmic form; 10.4 The optimality of ARIMA forecasts; Summary; Appendix 10A:The complementarity of ARIMA models and econometric models; Questions and problems; 11 Seasonal and other periodic models 11.1 Periodic data |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910144694203321 |
|
Pankratz Alan <1944->
|
||
| New York, : Wiley, c1983 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models [[electronic resource] ] : concepts and cases / / Alan Pankratz
| Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models [[electronic resource] ] : concepts and cases / / Alan Pankratz |
| Autore | Pankratz Alan <1944-> |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | New York, : Wiley, c1983 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (587 p.) |
| Disciplina |
519.54
519.55 |
| Collana | Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics. Probability and mathematical statistics. |
| Soggetto topico |
Time-series analysis
Prediction theory |
| ISBN |
1-282-30785-1
9786612307850 0-470-31656-X 0-470-31727-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Forecasting With Univariate Box- Jenkins Models CONCEPTS AND CASES; CONTENTS; PART I. BASIC CONCEPTS; 1 Overview; 1.1 Planning and forecasting; 1.2 What this book is about; 1.3 Time-series data; 1.4 Single-series (univariate) analysis; 1.5 When may UBJ models be used?; 1.6 The Box-Jenkins modeling procedure; 1.7 UBJ models compared with other models; Summary; Questions and problems; 2 Introduction to Box-Jenkins analysis of a single data series; 2.1 Differencing; 2.2 Deviations from the mean
2.3 Two analytical tools: the estimated autocorrelation function (acf) and estimated partial autocorrelation function (pacf)Summary; Questions and problems; 3 Underlying statistical principles; 3.1 Process, realization, and model; 3.2 Two common processes; 3.3 Statistical inference at the identification stage; Summary; Appendix 3 A: Expected value rules and definitions; Questions and problems; 4 An introduction to the practice of ARIMA modeling; 4.1 What is a good model?; 4.2 Two examples of UBJ-ARIMA modeling; Summary; Questions and problems; 5 Notation and the interpretation of ARIMA models 5.1 Three processes and ARIMA (p,d,q) notation5.2 Backshift notation; 5.3 Interpreting ARIMA models I: optimal extrapolation of past values of a single series; 5.4 Interpreting ARIMA models II: rationalizing them from their context; 5.5 Interpreting ARIMA models III: ARIMA(O,d,q) models as exponentially weighted moving averages; Summary; Questions and problems; 6 Identification: stationary models; 6.1 Theoretical acfs and pacf's for five common processes; 6.2 Stationarity; 6.3 Invertibility; 6.4 Deriving theoretical acf's for the MA(1) process 6.5 Deriving theoretical acf's for the AR(1) processSummary; Appendix 6A: The formal conditions for stationarity and invertibility; Appendix 6B Invertibility, uniqueness,and forecast performance; Questions and problems; 7 Identification: nonstationary models; 7.1 Nonstationary mean; 7.2 Nonstationary variance; 7.3 Differencing and deterministic trends; Summary; Appendix 7A: Integration; 8 Estimation; 8.1 Principles of estimation; 8.2 Nonlinear least-squares estimation; 8.3 Estimation-stage results: have we found a good model?; Summary; Appendix 8A: Marquardt's compromise; 8A.1 Overview 8A.2 Application to an MA(1)Appendix 8B: Backcasting; 8B.1 Conditional least squares; 8B.2 Unconditional least squares; 9 Diagnostic checking; 9.1 Are the random shocks independent?; 9.2 Other diagnostic checks; 9.3 Reformulating a model; Summary; Questions and problems; 10 Forecasting; 10.1 The algebra of ARIMA forecasts; 10.2 The dispersion of ARIMA forecasts; 10.3 Forecasting from data in logarithmic form; 10.4 The optimality of ARIMA forecasts; Summary; Appendix 10A:The complementarity of ARIMA models and econometric models; Questions and problems; 11 Seasonal and other periodic models 11.1 Periodic data |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910830016403321 |
|
Pankratz Alan <1944->
|
||
| New York, : Wiley, c1983 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||