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Uncertain judgements [[electronic resource] ] : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.]
| Uncertain judgements [[electronic resource] ] : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (339 p.) |
| Disciplina | 519.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | O'HaganAnthony |
| Collana | Statistics in practice |
| Soggetto topico |
Probabilities
Statistics Distribution (Probability theory) Mathematical statistics Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN |
1-280-64887-2
9786610648870 0-470-03331-2 0-470-03330-4 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Uncertain Judgements; Contents; Preface; 1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Probability and elicitation; 1.2.1 Probability; 1.2.2 Random variables and probability distributions; 1.2.3 Summaries of distributions; 1.2.4 Joint distributions; 1.2.5 Bayes' Theorem; 1.2.6 Elicitation; 1.3 Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability; 1.3.1 Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty; 1.3.2 Frequency and personal probabilities; 1.3.3 An extended example; 1.3.4 Implications for elicitation; 1.4 Elicitation and the psychology of judgement
1.4.1 Judgement - absolute or relative?1.4.2 Beyond perception; 1.4.3 Implications for elicitation; 1.5 Of what use are such judgements?; 1.5.1 Normative theories of probability; 1.5.2 Coherence; 1.5.3 Do elicited probabilities have the desired interpretation?; 1.6 Conclusions; 1.6.1 Elicitation practice; 1.6.2 Research questions; 2 The Elicitation Context; 2.1 How and who?; 2.1.1 Choice of format; 2.1.2 What is an expert?; 2.2 The elicitation process; 2.2.1 Roles within the elicitation process; 2.2.2 A model for the elicitation process; 2.3 Conventions in Chapters 3 to 9; 2.4 Conclusions 2.4.1 Elicitation practice2.4.2 Research question; 3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty; 3.1 Introduction; 3.1.1 Why psychology?; 3.1.2 Chapter overview; 3.2 Understanding the task and the expert; 3.2.1 Cognitive capabilities: the proper view of human information processing?; 3.2.2 Constructive processes: the proper view of the process?; 3.3 Understanding research on human judgement; 3.3.1 Experts versus the rest: the proper focus of research?; 3.3.2 Early research on subjective probability: 'conservatism' in Bayesian probability revision 3.4 The heuristics and biases research programme3.4.1 Availability; 3.4.2 Representativeness; 3.4.3 Do frequency representations remove the biases attributed to availability and representativeness?; 3.4.4 Anchoring-and-adjusting; 3.4.5 Support theory; 3.4.6 The affect heuristic; 3.4.7 Critique of the heuristics and biases approach; 3.5 Experts and expertise; 3.5.1 The heuristics and biases approach; 3.5.2 The cognitive science approach; 3.5.3 'The middle way'; 3.6 Three meta-theories of judgement; 3.6.1 The cognitive continuum; 3.6.2 The inside versus the outside view 3.6.3 The naive intuitive statistician metaphor3.7 Conclusions; 3.7.1 Elicitation practice; 3.7.2 Research questions; 4 The Elicitation of Probabilities; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The calibration of subjective probabilities; 4.2.1 Research methods in calibration research; 4.2.2 Calibration research: general findings; 4.2.3 Calibration research in applied settings; 4.2.4 A case study in probability judgement: calibration research in medicine; 4.3 The calibration of subjective probabilities: theories and explanations; 4.3.1 Explanations of probability judgement in calibration tasks 4.3.2 Theories of the calibration of subjective probabilities |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910143589203321 |
| London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Uncertain judgements [[electronic resource] ] : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.]
| Uncertain judgements [[electronic resource] ] : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (339 p.) |
| Disciplina | 519.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | O'HaganAnthony |
| Collana | Statistics in practice |
| Soggetto topico |
Probabilities
Statistics Distribution (Probability theory) Mathematical statistics Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| ISBN |
1-280-64887-2
9786610648870 0-470-03331-2 0-470-03330-4 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Uncertain Judgements; Contents; Preface; 1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Probability and elicitation; 1.2.1 Probability; 1.2.2 Random variables and probability distributions; 1.2.3 Summaries of distributions; 1.2.4 Joint distributions; 1.2.5 Bayes' Theorem; 1.2.6 Elicitation; 1.3 Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability; 1.3.1 Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty; 1.3.2 Frequency and personal probabilities; 1.3.3 An extended example; 1.3.4 Implications for elicitation; 1.4 Elicitation and the psychology of judgement
1.4.1 Judgement - absolute or relative?1.4.2 Beyond perception; 1.4.3 Implications for elicitation; 1.5 Of what use are such judgements?; 1.5.1 Normative theories of probability; 1.5.2 Coherence; 1.5.3 Do elicited probabilities have the desired interpretation?; 1.6 Conclusions; 1.6.1 Elicitation practice; 1.6.2 Research questions; 2 The Elicitation Context; 2.1 How and who?; 2.1.1 Choice of format; 2.1.2 What is an expert?; 2.2 The elicitation process; 2.2.1 Roles within the elicitation process; 2.2.2 A model for the elicitation process; 2.3 Conventions in Chapters 3 to 9; 2.4 Conclusions 2.4.1 Elicitation practice2.4.2 Research question; 3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty; 3.1 Introduction; 3.1.1 Why psychology?; 3.1.2 Chapter overview; 3.2 Understanding the task and the expert; 3.2.1 Cognitive capabilities: the proper view of human information processing?; 3.2.2 Constructive processes: the proper view of the process?; 3.3 Understanding research on human judgement; 3.3.1 Experts versus the rest: the proper focus of research?; 3.3.2 Early research on subjective probability: 'conservatism' in Bayesian probability revision 3.4 The heuristics and biases research programme3.4.1 Availability; 3.4.2 Representativeness; 3.4.3 Do frequency representations remove the biases attributed to availability and representativeness?; 3.4.4 Anchoring-and-adjusting; 3.4.5 Support theory; 3.4.6 The affect heuristic; 3.4.7 Critique of the heuristics and biases approach; 3.5 Experts and expertise; 3.5.1 The heuristics and biases approach; 3.5.2 The cognitive science approach; 3.5.3 'The middle way'; 3.6 Three meta-theories of judgement; 3.6.1 The cognitive continuum; 3.6.2 The inside versus the outside view 3.6.3 The naive intuitive statistician metaphor3.7 Conclusions; 3.7.1 Elicitation practice; 3.7.2 Research questions; 4 The Elicitation of Probabilities; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The calibration of subjective probabilities; 4.2.1 Research methods in calibration research; 4.2.2 Calibration research: general findings; 4.2.3 Calibration research in applied settings; 4.2.4 A case study in probability judgement: calibration research in medicine; 4.3 The calibration of subjective probabilities: theories and explanations; 4.3.1 Explanations of probability judgement in calibration tasks 4.3.2 Theories of the calibration of subjective probabilities |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910831049703321 |
| London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.]
| Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities / / Anthony O'Hagan ... [et al.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (339 p.) |
| Disciplina | 519.54 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | O'HaganAnthony |
| Collana | Statistics in practice |
| Soggetto topico |
Probabilities
Statistics Distribution (Probability theory) Mathematical statistics Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| ISBN |
9786610648870
9781280648878 1280648872 9780470033319 0470033312 9780470033302 0470033304 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Uncertain Judgements; Contents; Preface; 1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Probability and elicitation; 1.2.1 Probability; 1.2.2 Random variables and probability distributions; 1.2.3 Summaries of distributions; 1.2.4 Joint distributions; 1.2.5 Bayes' Theorem; 1.2.6 Elicitation; 1.3 Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability; 1.3.1 Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty; 1.3.2 Frequency and personal probabilities; 1.3.3 An extended example; 1.3.4 Implications for elicitation; 1.4 Elicitation and the psychology of judgement
1.4.1 Judgement - absolute or relative?1.4.2 Beyond perception; 1.4.3 Implications for elicitation; 1.5 Of what use are such judgements?; 1.5.1 Normative theories of probability; 1.5.2 Coherence; 1.5.3 Do elicited probabilities have the desired interpretation?; 1.6 Conclusions; 1.6.1 Elicitation practice; 1.6.2 Research questions; 2 The Elicitation Context; 2.1 How and who?; 2.1.1 Choice of format; 2.1.2 What is an expert?; 2.2 The elicitation process; 2.2.1 Roles within the elicitation process; 2.2.2 A model for the elicitation process; 2.3 Conventions in Chapters 3 to 9; 2.4 Conclusions 2.4.1 Elicitation practice2.4.2 Research question; 3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty; 3.1 Introduction; 3.1.1 Why psychology?; 3.1.2 Chapter overview; 3.2 Understanding the task and the expert; 3.2.1 Cognitive capabilities: the proper view of human information processing?; 3.2.2 Constructive processes: the proper view of the process?; 3.3 Understanding research on human judgement; 3.3.1 Experts versus the rest: the proper focus of research?; 3.3.2 Early research on subjective probability: 'conservatism' in Bayesian probability revision 3.4 The heuristics and biases research programme3.4.1 Availability; 3.4.2 Representativeness; 3.4.3 Do frequency representations remove the biases attributed to availability and representativeness?; 3.4.4 Anchoring-and-adjusting; 3.4.5 Support theory; 3.4.6 The affect heuristic; 3.4.7 Critique of the heuristics and biases approach; 3.5 Experts and expertise; 3.5.1 The heuristics and biases approach; 3.5.2 The cognitive science approach; 3.5.3 'The middle way'; 3.6 Three meta-theories of judgement; 3.6.1 The cognitive continuum; 3.6.2 The inside versus the outside view 3.6.3 The naive intuitive statistician metaphor3.7 Conclusions; 3.7.1 Elicitation practice; 3.7.2 Research questions; 4 The Elicitation of Probabilities; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The calibration of subjective probabilities; 4.2.1 Research methods in calibration research; 4.2.2 Calibration research: general findings; 4.2.3 Calibration research in applied settings; 4.2.4 A case study in probability judgement: calibration research in medicine; 4.3 The calibration of subjective probabilities: theories and explanations; 4.3.1 Explanations of probability judgement in calibration tasks 4.3.2 Theories of the calibration of subjective probabilities |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9911020096703321 |
| London ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : Wiley, c2006 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||