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Intro -- Editorial Committee -- Research and Innovation Company Profile -- Preface -- Contents -- Part I Macro Trends -- Prospects for China's Economic Development During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period -- 1 The Economic Development During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period Laid a Good Foundation -- 2 During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period, We Are Faced with a Complex New Situation, with Opportunities and Challenges Coexisting -- 2.1 China's Economic Development Momentum is Still Strong -- 2.2 Risks and Challenges -- 3 Analysis on Economic Development Trend During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period -- 3.1 The Economy Continues to Maintain Moderate Growth -- 3.2 The Household Registration and Population Policies Are Gradually Relaxed, Driving a New Round of Agglomeration Effect and Urbanization Upgrading -- 3.3 The Application of Digital Technology Comprehensively Promotes the Upgrading of Industrial Technology and New Infrastructure -- 3.4 The Policies of Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality Have Been Gradually Implemented, and Energy Transformation Has Promoted New Economic Growth Drivers -- 4 Policy Recommendations on Promoting the Benign Interaction of Economic Dual Circulation and Maintaining the Healthy and Stable Development of Economy -- 4.1 Shifting from Investment-Oriented Fiscal Policy to Security-Oriented Fiscal Policy, Focusing Efforts on Elderly Care and Protection of Disadvantaged Groups -- 4.2 The Macro-economic Regulation and Control Will Return to Neutral Monetary Policy to Promote Asset Prices to a Reasonable Space and Reduce Financial Risks -- 4.3 The Focus of Industrial Policy Will Be Shifted to Promoting Industrial Technology Upgrading, and the Focus of Policy Tools Will Be Shifted from Subsidy to Tax Reduction.
4.4 Taking Comprehensive Measures to Reverse the Downward Trend of Population Growth and Optimize the Age Structure of the Population -- 4.5 Focusing on Carbon-neutral Industry to Promote Energy Transformation and Ecological Civilization Construction Under the Prospect of Carbon Neutrality -- 4.6 Continuing to Improve the Construction of Infrastructure Networks Such as Transportation, Telecommunications and Energy, and Effectively Reduce Economic Costs -- 4.7 Improving the Scientific and Technological Innovation Mechanism and Promote the Research and Development Investment of Basic Research, Industrial Technology and Civil-Military Integration Technologies -- 4.8 Continuing to Promote Reform and Opening up, Reduce Market Access Restrictions, and Build a Fair and Orderly Market Competition Atmosphere -- 5 Summary -- References -- China's Energy Transition with the Scenario of Carbon Neutrality, Outlook by 2060 -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Foundation and Path Analysis of Realizing Carbon Neutrality -- 2.1 Present Situation of China's Energy Structure and Difficulties in Realizing Carbon Neutrality -- 2.2 Achieving Emission Reduction Through Energy Saving is the Most Economical and Direct Way -- 2.3 Developing Low-Carbon and Non-carbon Energy and Reducing the Proportion of Carbon-Intensive Fossil Fuel Energy to Reduce the Pressure for Achieving Carbon Neutrality -- 2.4 Carbon-Based Energy Recycling is Essential for Carbon Neutrality -- 2.5 Ecological Carbon Fixation -- 3 Path Selection for Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality -- 3.1 Model and Scenario Design -- 3.2 The Combination of Different Hydrogen Energy -- 3.3 Scenario of Preparing Methanol Based on Carbon Dioxide Emitted from Carbon-Based Fuels and Fuel Substitution -- 3.4 Energy Conversion: Substitution of Methanol and Hydrogen Energy for Coal, Fuel Oil and Electric Energy.
3.5 Development of Primary Energy Power and Substitution for Fossil Fuel Power -- 3.6 Trade-Off of Clean Electricity & -- Natural Gas for Coal in End-Use Energy Consumption -- 3.7 Energy Saving Potential of Various Industries -- 4 Recommended Routes: High Renewable Energy, High Energy Efficiency, End-Use Coal Substitution and Green Methanol -- 5 Policy Recommendations -- 5.1 Promoting Energy Transition and Developing Carbon Neutral Technology and Industrial System -- 5.2 Increasing the Proportion of Non-carbon Energy and Carbon Neutral Energy -- 5.3 Comprehensively Promoting Ecological Restoration and Improvement -- References -- Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: Four-Dimensional Comparison of Aggregate, Elasticity, Intensity and Structure Among Economies -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of Developed Economies -- 2.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption -- 2.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity -- 2.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity -- 2.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure -- 3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of Developing Economies -- 3.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption -- 3.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity -- 3.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity -- 3.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure -- 4 China's Economic Growth and Energy Consumption -- 4.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption -- 4.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity -- 4.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity -- 4.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure -- 5 Carbon Peak, Carbon Neutrality Commitment and Future China's Energy Consumption -- 6 Conclusion and Discussion -- References -- Part II Petroleum -- In-Depth Analysis on International Oil Market in Post-pandemic Era.
1 Characteristics of Global Oil Market in 2020 -- 1.1 Oil Prices Have Plummeted and Fallen to an Unprecedented Negative Price, and the Benchmark Oil Price Spreads Fluctuated Drastically -- 1.2 Demand Side: In 2020, Global Oil Demand Showed the Largest Decline in History -- 1.3 Supply Side: In 2020, OPEC+ Adopted an Unprecedented Scale of Production Reduction -- 1.4 Inventory Side: In 2020, Both Global Crude Oil Inventories and Floating Inventories Reached the Highest Level in History -- 1.5 Refining: The Global Refining Has Suffered Unprecedented Heavy Losses -- 2 Prospects in 2021: Analysis on International Oil Market in Post-pandemic Era -- 2.1 Pandemic Situation: The Turning Point Has Appeared, and the Situation Is Generally Good, but It Has Been Repeated -- 2.2 Macro-Level: The Global Economy Has Achieved Recovery Growth, and Large-Scale QE (Quantitative Easing) Policies Has Pushed Up Asset Prices -- 2.3 Demand Side: Global Oil Demand Has Gradually Recovered, but It Is Difficult to Fully Reach Pre-pandemic Levels -- 2.4 Supply Side: OPEC Maintained a Small Increase in Production, and Global Supply Growth Is Generally Limited -- 2.5 Inventory: Destocking Accelerated Throughout the year, and Global Inventory Gradually Returns to Normal Levels -- 2.6 Refining: The Global Refining is Gradually Recovering but Hard to Reach the Pre-pandemic Normality -- 2.7 Geopolitics: Geopolitics Will Still Be Turbulent and the Recovery of Iranian Crude May Come Back Later Than Expected -- 3 Prospect on Medium and Long-Term Oil Market -- 3.1 Medium and Long-Term Global Economic Growth Faces Some Challenges -- 3.2 Medium and Long-Term World Oil Demand Has Entered a Low Growth Stage -- 3.3 Medium and Long-Term World Oil Supply is Facing Great Uncertainty -- 3.4 Medium and Long-Term Oil Prices May Return to the Rebalancing Range.
3.5 The New Round of Reshuffle of Medium and Long-Term Oil Companies Will Continue to Intensify, and Energy Transformation Will Accelerate -- References -- Analysis and Prospect on Global Oil Supply Under the Production Reduction of OPEC+ -- 1 Review of Global Oil Supply in 2020 -- 1.1 OPEC+ Reached the Largest Production Reduction Agreement in History -- 1.2 Political Upheaval Has Led to a Decline in Production in Countries with Exemption for Production Reduction -- 1.3 American Shale Oil Producers Have Been Greatly Affected -- 1.4 Non-OPEC Oil Producers Responded to the Impact of Low Oil Prices by Production Reduction -- 2 Prospect on Global Oil Supply in 2021 -- 2.1 OPEC+ is Expected to Relax the Production Reduction Quota by Stages -- 2.2 The Production Prospects of Countries With Reduced Production Exemptions Are Full of Variables -- 2.3 The Shale Oil Production of the Us is Expected to Recover -- 2.4 Oil Producers Such as Brazil and Canada have Released Growth Potential -- 3 Medium and Long-Term Prediction of Global Oil Supply -- 3.1 The Production Of Medium Crude Oil Will Increase Rapidly, and the Price Difference Between Light and Heavy Crude Oil will Remain Narrow -- 3.2 Oil Producers have Great Growth Potential and the World will Enter an Era of Oversupply -- References -- Review and Medium- and Long-Term Prospect of Global Oil Demand -- 1 Global Oil Demand in 2020 Hit the Largest Decline in History -- 1.1 The COVID-19 Caused a Serious Recession in the Global Economy -- 1.2 The Pandemic Caused the Biggest Drop in Global Oil Demand in History -- 1.3 China's Oil Demand Has Increased Year on Year, and Other Countries Have Fallen Sharply -- 1.4 The Demand for Refined Petroleum Products Continued the Trend of Strong Diesel Consumption and Weak Gasoline Consumption, and Jet Fuel Was the Most Affected.
2 Global Oil Demand Recovered in 2021, But It Was Difficult to Return to the Pre-pandemic Level.
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Advanced theory and applications of engineering systems under the framework of Industry 4.0 : proceedings of 2022 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Engineering Applications / / edited by Yongsheng Ma
