Climate Adaptation Modelling

• Autore: Kondrup Claus
• Pubblicazione: Cham, : Springer Nature, 2022; Cham : , : Springer International Publishing AG, , 2022; ©2022
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (241 pages)
• Soggetto topico: Meteorology & climatology; Natural disasters; Ecological science, the Biosphere; Mathematics & science
• Soggetto non controllato: Climate change; Climate adaptation; Climate modelling; Hazard assessment; Rapid analysis; Climate-Change Policy; Climate-Change Adaptation; Climate-Change Impacts; Climate Change Management
• Classificazione: NAT023000SCI000000SCI020000SCI042000
• Altri autori: MercoglianoPaola BoselloFrancesco MysiakJaroslav ScoccimarroEnrico RizzoAngela EbreyRhian RuiterMarleen de JeukenAd WatkissPaul
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Preface -- Introduction from DG-CLIMA -- Introduction from the Editors -- Contents -- Part I Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- 1 Modelling the Cost and Benefits of Adaptation. A Targeted Review on Integrated Assessment Models with a Special Focus on Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- Conclusions and Recommendation -- References -- 2 Cross-Sectoral Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- The Grace Model -- Implications of National and Global Dependencies in Adaptation -- Adaptation in the Forestry Sector and the Global Impacts -- Adaptation from a Local Perspective and the National Impacts -- Adaptation to Heat Stress -- Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- References -- 3 Climate Services Supporting Adaptation Modelling -- The European Research and Innovation Roadmap for Climate Services -- What Has Been Accomplished and What Are Still Seen as Gaps? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 4 Impact-Oriented Climate Information Selection -- Introduction -- Climate Scenario Storylines: The Dutch Climate Change Scenarios -- Climate Risk Storylines -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 5 On the Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Models for Adaptation Decisions -- Introduction -- Standard Evaluation Questions We Can (and Should) Ask Using Global Sensitivity Analysis -- Do the Parameters That Reflect Possible Intervention Levers Adequately Control the Model Output? -- Are Dominant Uncertainties Changing Along the Projection Timeline? -- Are Dominant Modelled Processes Changing with Climate? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 6 Stress-Testing Adaptation Options -- Introduction -- Robustness and Resilience Frameworks -- Stress-Testing Methods -- Physical Experiments -- Systems Modelling -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References. ; 7 Reducing and Managing Uncertainty of Adaptation Recommendations to Increase user's Uptake -- Introduction -- Material and Methods -- Climate Data -- Crop Data and Models -- Adaptation Modelling -- Approaches for Uncertainty Reduction -- Results and Discussion -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- Part II Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Modelling -- 8 Modelling Risk Reduction Measures to Minimise Future Impacts of Storms at Coastal Areas -- Introduction -- Modelling the Impact of Coastal Storms -- Modelling Risk Reduction Measures Including Climate Change -- Bottlenecks and Future Developments -- Conclusions -- References -- 9 A Model-Based Response Surface Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Urgency -- Introduction -- Impacts and Adaptation in a Risk Framework -- Modelling Impacts and Adaptation -- Objectives and Research Questions -- Approach -- Operationalising the IPCC Risk Framework -- Impact Models -- Impact Response Surfaces -- Illustrative Results: Risk Assessment -- Risks of Crop Yield Shortfall in Finland -- Impact Risks for Water Management in the Vale Do Gaio Reservoir, Portugal -- Regional Risks and the Urgency for Action -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 10 Use of Vegetation for Landslide Risk Mitigation -- Introduction -- Climate-Induced Landslides -- Landslides Risk in View of Climatic Changes: Relevant Past and On-Going Projects -- Slope Stability Modelling -- Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) -- Nature-Based Solutions for Climate-Related Challenges: European Strategy -- Use of NBS in Landslide Risk Mitigation -- Modelling of Slope Stability Using Vegetation -- Effects of Vegetation on Landslide Protection -- Expected Development Within Landslide Modelling Using Vegetation -- Challenges Related to Legislation -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References. ; 11 Modelling to Evaluate Climate Resilience of Crop Rotations Under Climate Change -- Introduction -- Main Effects of Crop Rotations and Their Management -- Current State of Model-Based Climate Change Impact Assessment -- Conclusions and Recommendations for Model Improvement -- References -- 12 Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human-Flood Systems -- Introduction -- Empirical Data-Driven Knowledge -- Modelling Changes in Flood Risk -- Modelling Approaches -- Role of Spatial Scale -- Conclusion and Recommendation -- References -- 13 Climate-Fit.City: Urban Climate Data and Services -- Introduction -- Climate-Fit.City Data -- Climate-Fit.City Services -- Conclusions -- References -- 14 Weather and Climate Services to Support a Risk-Sharing Mechanism for Adaptation of the Agricultural Sector. A Theoretical Example for Drought-Prone Areas -- Introduction -- Weather-Based Index Insurance (WII) -- Overview of Modelling Approach -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 15 Recent Innovations in Flood Hazard Modelling Over Large Data Sparse Regions -- Introduction -- Overview of Progress in Global Flood Modelling -- Digital Terrain Modelling -- Extreme Flows -- Hydrography: River Location, Width and Depth -- Inundation Modelling -- Discussion -- References -- Part III Sectoral Models for Impact and Adaptation Assessment -- 16 A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System -- Introduction -- Modelling Adaptation in the Land Use and Food System -- Existing Approaches and Research Gaps -- LandSyMM Modelling Approach -- Climate Change Adaptation Applications -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 17 Water Resource System Modelling for Climate Adaptation -- Introduction -- Decision Analysis for Water Management Under Climate Change -- Simulation Models for Climate Adaptation in the Water Sector. ; Adaptation Practices in the Water Sector: Simulating London's Water Security -- The Expanding Boundaries of Water Resources System Modelling -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 18 A Top-Down Meets Bottom-Up Approach for Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resource Systems -- Introduction -- Uncertainty and Adaptation in Water Resource Systems -- Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up Adaptation Strategies -- Bottom-Up Approach -- Developing Future Demand Scenarios Through Scenario Building Workshops -- Developing Portfolios of Water Management Adaptation Options at the Basin Scale -- Top-Down Impact Assessment -- Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches -- Addressing Equity in Cost Allocation -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 19 Advances in Climate Adaptation Modeling of Infrastructure Networks -- Introduction -- Methodologies for Evaluating Network Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Adaptation -- Case Studies of Infrastructure Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation Assessments -- Tools Developed Through Case Studies -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 20 Navigating Deep Uncertainty in Complex Human-Water Systems -- Introduction -- Navigating Deep Uncertainty Type 1: Modular Hierarchies for Multi-system Ensembles -- Navigating Deep Uncertainty Type 2: Measuring and Understanding Transaction Costs to Avoid Techno-Institutional Lock-In -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 21 Cascading Transitional Climate Risks in the Private Sector-Risks and Opportunities -- Introduction -- Methods -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 22 Climate Change Adaptation in Insurance -- Introduction -- Incentivise Risk Reduction Measures in Property Insurance -- Promote Pro-active Management of Business Interruption Risks -- Improve Creditworthiness Through Adaptation Measures -- Conclusions -- References. ; 23 Climate Change Adaptation and Societal Transformation: What Are the Public Health Challenges? -- The European Commission's Missions for Horizon Europe -- Societal Transformation -- The Climate Change Driver -- Working Towards the 'Second Path' to Limit the Global Average Temperature Rise to 'Well Below 2 ºC' -- What Systems Thinking Approaches for Interventions are Available? -- How Research Might Deliver Evidence for the Suggested Interventions -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- Annexe 1 MINDSPACE is a Checklist of Influences on Our Behaviour for Use When Making Policy (Cabinet Office 2010) -- Annexe 2 The APEASE Criteria for Assessing Interventions, Intervention Components and Ideas (Michie et al. 2014) -- References -- Part IV Adaptation Modelling and Policy Action -- 24 The Roles of Climate Risk Dynamics and Adaptation Limits in Adaptation Assessment -- Introduction -- Dynamics of Risk -- Exposure Change -- Vulnerability Change -- Adaptation Limits -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 25 Climate Impact Chains-A Conceptual Modelling Approach for Climate Risk Assessment in the Context of Adaptation Planning -- Introduction -- Methodology-Impact Chains, Operationalisation and Adaptation Planning -- Impact Chains-Conceptual Models of Climate Risks -- Operationalisation-Models, Indicators, Qualitative Approaches -- How Impact Chains Support Adaptation Planning -- Conclusion and Recommendations -- References -- 26 Operationalizing Climate Proofing in Decision/Policy Making -- Introduction -- Methods -- Applications -- Conclusions -- References -- 27 Adaptation Modelling: A JPI Climate Perspective -- Introduction -- Key Projects -- Ongoing and Future Developments -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- Correction to: The Roles of Climate Risk Dynamics and Adaptation Limits in Adaptation Assessment. ; Correction to: Chapter 24 in: C. Kondrup et al. (eds.), Climate Adaptation Modelling, Springer Climate, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-424.
• Sommario/riassunto: This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA). What is the latest development in adaptation modelling? Which tools and information are available for adaptation assessment? How much are they practically usable by the policy community? How their uptake by practitioners can be improved? What are the major research gaps in adaptation modelling that needs to be covered in the next future? How? This book addresses these questions presenting the results of a study on adaptation modelling commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) enriched by the outcomes of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation also part of the research. This book aspires to provide a useful support to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation to orient them in the expanding adaptation modelling assessment literature and suggest practical ways for its application. This book, mainly addressed to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation, aims to providing orientation in the large and expanding methodological/quantitative literature, presenting novelties, guiding in the practical application of adaptation assessments and suggesting lines for future research. This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA).
• Titolo autorizzato: Climate Adaptation Modelling
• ISBN: 9783030862114; 3030862119
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910522973703321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: Springer Climate