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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton
| Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton |
| Autore | Clinton Kevin |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
JohnsonMarianne
ChenHuigang KamenikOndrej LaxtonDouglas |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - United States - Econometric models Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models Interest rates - United States - Econometric models Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models Bank loans - United States - Econometric models Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models Foreign Exchange Inflation Macroeconomics Production and Operations Management Macroeconomics: Production Energy: Demand and Supply Prices Price Level Deflation Currency Foreign exchange Oil prices Output gap Potential output Real exchange rates Production Economic theory |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7594-4
1-282-84420-2 1-4527-2887-9 1-4518-7361-1 9786612844201 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788225703321 |
Clinton Kevin
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton
| Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton |
| Autore | Clinton Kevin |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
| Disciplina | 330.9;330.90511 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
JohnsonMarianne
ChenHuigang KamenikOndrej LaxtonDouglas |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - United States - Econometric models Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models Interest rates - United States - Econometric models Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models Bank loans - United States - Econometric models Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models Foreign Exchange Inflation Macroeconomics Production and Operations Management Macroeconomics: Production Energy: Demand and Supply Prices Price Level Deflation Currency Foreign exchange Oil prices Output gap Potential output Real exchange rates Production Economic theory |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7594-4
1-282-84420-2 1-4527-2887-9 1-4518-7361-1 9786612844201 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Model Structure -- 2.1 Overview -- 2.2 Model components -- 2.2.1 Variable definitions -- 2.2.2 Underlying equilibrium values and stochastic processes -- 2.2.3 Bank lending tightening -- 2.2.4 Output gap -- 2.2.5 Unemployment -- 2.2.6 Inflation -- 2.2.7 Policy rule for the interest rate -- 2.2.8 Exchange rate -- 2.2.9 Variance and coviariance of disturbances -- III. GPM-Generated Confidence Bands -- 3.1 Construction -- 3.2 U.S. inflation -- 3.3 U.S. interest rate -- 3.4 U.S. output gap -- 3.5 Bank lending tightening -- IV. Conclusions -- References -- Figures -- 1. U.S. Year-on Year CPI Inflation -- 2. U.S. Interest Rate -- 3. U.S. Output Gap -- 4. Bank Lending Tightening -- 5. Oil Price. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817621303321 |
|
Clinton Kevin
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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GPM6 : : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions / / Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev
| GPM6 : : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions / / Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev |
| Autore | Carabenciov Ioan |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (80 p.) |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
FreedmanCharles
Garcia-SaltosRoberto LaxtonDouglas KamenikOndrej ManchevPetar |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic policy - Mathematical models
Economics - Mathematical models Banks and Banking Foreign Exchange Inflation Production and Operations Management Model Construction and Estimation Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects Macroeconomics: Production Macroeconomics Currency Foreign exchange Finance Banking Real exchange rates Output gap Real interest rates Central bank policy rate Production Financial services Prices Interest rates Economic theory |
| ISBN |
1-4843-9170-5
1-4843-0277-X 1-4843-2538-9 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background to the Model Specification; III. The specification of the model; A. Data definitions; B. Stochastic processes; 1. Potential Output; 2. NAIRU; 3. Equilibrium real interest rate; 4. Real exchange rate; C. Behavioral equations for the G3 economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Inflation; 3. Policy Interest Rate; 4. Medium-term Interest Rate; 5. Uncovered Interest Parity; 6. Unemployment Rate; D. Differences in specification of behavioral equations for the emerging economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Uncovered Interest Parity; 3. Unemployment Rate
IV. Confronting the Model with the DataA. Bayesian estimation; 1. General approach; 2. Calibration and estimation in the GPM6 model; B. Results; 1. Estimated and calibrated coefficients; 2. Root Mean Squared Errors; 3. Variance decompositions; 4. Impulse response functions; 5. A global demand shock; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix 1: GPM6 Data Definitions; Tables; 1. GPM6 Parameters Table; 2. Results from estimation of parameters in GPM6 (sample 1994Q1-2007Q4); 3. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table; 4. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table[2] 5. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[1]6. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[2]; 7. Root Mean Squared Errors 1999Q1-2007Q4 .; 8. Variance Decomposition[1]; 9. Variance Decomposition[2]; Figures; 1. Shock to (Omitted); 2. Shock to (Omitted); 3. Shock to (Omitted); 4. Shock to (Omitted); 5. Shock to (Omitted); 6. Shock to (Omitted); 7. Shock to (Omitted); 8. Shock to (Omitted); 9. Shock to (Omitted); 10. Shock to (Omitted); 11. Shock to (Omitted); 12. Shock to (Omitted); 13. Shock to (Omitted); 14. Shock to (Omitted) 15. Shock to (Omitted)16. Shock to (Omitted); 17. Shock to (Omitted); 18. Shock to (Omitted); 19. Shock to (Omitted); 20. Shock to (Omitted); 21. Shock to (Omitted); 22. Shock to (Omitted); 23. Global Demand Shock |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910787671403321 |
|
Carabenciov Ioan
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
GPM6 : : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions / / Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev
| GPM6 : : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions / / Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev |
| Autore | Carabenciov Ioan |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2013 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (80 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.152 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
FreedmanCharles
Garcia-SaltosRoberto LaxtonDouglas KamenikOndrej ManchevPetar |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic policy - Mathematical models
Economics - Mathematical models Banks and Banking Foreign Exchange Inflation Production and Operations Management Model Construction and Estimation Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects Macroeconomics: Production Macroeconomics Currency Foreign exchange Finance Banking Real exchange rates Output gap Real interest rates Central bank policy rate Production Financial services Prices Interest rates Economic theory |
| ISBN |
1-4843-9170-5
1-4843-0277-X 1-4843-2538-9 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background to the Model Specification; III. The specification of the model; A. Data definitions; B. Stochastic processes; 1. Potential Output; 2. NAIRU; 3. Equilibrium real interest rate; 4. Real exchange rate; C. Behavioral equations for the G3 economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Inflation; 3. Policy Interest Rate; 4. Medium-term Interest Rate; 5. Uncovered Interest Parity; 6. Unemployment Rate; D. Differences in specification of behavioral equations for the emerging economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Uncovered Interest Parity; 3. Unemployment Rate
IV. Confronting the Model with the DataA. Bayesian estimation; 1. General approach; 2. Calibration and estimation in the GPM6 model; B. Results; 1. Estimated and calibrated coefficients; 2. Root Mean Squared Errors; 3. Variance decompositions; 4. Impulse response functions; 5. A global demand shock; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix 1: GPM6 Data Definitions; Tables; 1. GPM6 Parameters Table; 2. Results from estimation of parameters in GPM6 (sample 1994Q1-2007Q4); 3. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table; 4. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table[2] 5. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[1]6. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[2]; 7. Root Mean Squared Errors 1999Q1-2007Q4 .; 8. Variance Decomposition[1]; 9. Variance Decomposition[2]; Figures; 1. Shock to (Omitted); 2. Shock to (Omitted); 3. Shock to (Omitted); 4. Shock to (Omitted); 5. Shock to (Omitted); 6. Shock to (Omitted); 7. Shock to (Omitted); 8. Shock to (Omitted); 9. Shock to (Omitted); 10. Shock to (Omitted); 11. Shock to (Omitted); 12. Shock to (Omitted); 13. Shock to (Omitted); 14. Shock to (Omitted) 15. Shock to (Omitted)16. Shock to (Omitted); 17. Shock to (Omitted); 18. Shock to (Omitted); 19. Shock to (Omitted); 20. Shock to (Omitted); 21. Shock to (Omitted); 22. Shock to (Omitted); 23. Global Demand Shock |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910828616903321 |
|
Carabenciov Ioan
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2013 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||