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Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910132307403321 |
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815689203321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||