Autore |
Coons James W. <1957-, >
|
Edizione | [1st ed.] |
Pubbl/distr/stampa |
London ; ; New York : , : Routledge, , 2015
|
Descrizione fisica |
1 online resource (154 p.)
|
Disciplina |
332.82
332.6323
|
Altri autori (Persone) |
GewekeJohn
MillerPreston J
|
Collana |
Routledge Library Editions: Business Cycles
|
Soggetto topico |
Interest rates
Business cycles
|
ISBN |
1-138-88822-2
1-315-71365-9
1-317-49865-8
|
Formato |
Materiale a stampa  |
Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione |
eng
|
Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; Original Title Page; Original Copyright Page; Dedication; Table of Contents; Preface; List of Illustrations; List of Tables; List of Abbreviations; I. Introduction; Purpose and Scope; Research Methods; Delimitations; Limitations; Structure of the Book; II. The Folly of Forecasting; The Record of the Experts; Benchmark Measures; The Naive Approach; Expectations and the Term Structure; Expectations and the Futures Market; The Stumbling Block of Market Efficiency; The Forecaster's Paradox; The Fallacy of Omission
Toward a Redefinition of the ProblemIII. The Interest Rate Cycle; Elements of a Cycle; Other Major Moves; ""I Know One When I See One""; Shooting in the Dark; What is the Interest Rate Cycle?; The Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index; Construction of the Index; Standardization; Trend Elimination; Index Cumulation; Identification of Peaks and Troughs; In Search of a Method; The Guiding Light of Monetary Policy; Selection Rules and Results; Birds of a Feather; Summary; IV. Benchmark Turning Point Forecasts; The Naive Filter; Tuning in the Signal; Scoring the Benchmark Forecasts; A Broader Scope
V. Selecting a Leading IndicatorFactors Affecting Interest Rates; The Wicksellian Theory of Loanable Funds; The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect; The Inflation-Interest Rate Link; Measuring the Theory; The Fisher Equations; The Loanable Funds Model; Selectinga Leading Indicator; How to Pick a Winner; The Leading Inflation Index; VI. Sequential Filter Turning Point Forecasts; In Search of a Signal; Sequential Analysis to the Rescue; Applying Neftci's Algorithm; The Framework; The Model; Application to the Interest Rate Cycle; Conditional Probability Distributions; Pick Your Poison
Empirical ResultsComparison with Benchmark Forecasts; Asleep at the Switch?; Twice as Nice; State of Rates Recognition; The Current State of Rates; Keeping in Touch; VII. Summary and Conclusions; The Model and the Test; Specific Findings; Conclusions; Suggestions for Further Research; Afterword; Bibliography; Index
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Record Nr. | UNINA-9910702926503321 |