The future of Africa : challenges and opportunities / / Jakkie Cilliers

• Autore: Cilliers Jakkie
• Pubblicazione: Springer Nature, 2021; Cham : , : Springer International Publishing AG, , 2021; ©2021
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (XVII, 421 pages) : 57 illustrations, 55 illustrations in color
• Disciplina: 330.9600112
• Soggetto topico: Economic development - Africa
• Soggetto geografico: Africa Politics and government 1960-; Africa Forecasting
• Soggetto non controllato: African Politics; Development Studies; Political Economy/Economic Systems; Political Economy and Economic Systems; Africa; demographics; population; development; development in Africa; African Union; China; political economy in Africa; Open access; Politics & government; Political economy
• Note generali: Includes index.
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Preface and Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 The Growing Gap -- The Growing Income Divergence -- South Korea and Ghana -- The Importance of Labour and Demographics -- Productivity and Economic Structure -- The Global Context -- Dealing with Africa's Diversity-Using Country Income Groups -- Previous Studies and the International Futures Forecasting Platform -- Structure of the Book -- Further Reading -- 2 Africa's Current Path -- From Brundtland to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) -- The Impact of the Structural Adjustment Programmes -- Africa's Growing Dependence on Commodities -- The Challenges of Commodities-Dependent Growth -- Rising Debt Levels -- The Third Wave of Democratisation in Africa -- Africa's Slow Pace of Urbanisation -- The Current Path Scenario -- 3 Health -- The Impact of HIV and AIDS -- Africa's Approaching Health Transition -- Urbanisation and Health Services -- Current Path: Access to Basic Infrastructure -- Modelling the Impact of Better Health and WASH Infrastructure: The Improved Health Scenario -- Impact on Disability Adjusted Life Years -- Conclusion: Planning Comprehensively and Long-Term -- Further Reading -- 4 Getting to Africa's Demographic Dividend -- What History Reveals -- The Impact of the Demographic Dividend -- Comparing Niger, Egypt, Japan and Sweden -- Africa's Slow Demographic Transition -- The Peak and Length of the Demographic Dividend -- The Potential Benefits of Reducing Fertility Rates -- The Components of the Demographic Dividend Scenario -- Scenario Impact on Global Population -- Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Africa -- Conclusion: Reducing Fertility Rates and Working Towards Africa's Demographic Dividend -- Further Reading -- 5 Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture -- After Independence -- Agriculture Today. ; Obstacles to a Revolution in Agriculture -- Achieving Food Security -- The Challenge for the Future -- Lessons from Elsewhere -- Modelling a Coordinated Push on Africa's Agricultural Sector: The African Agriculture Revolution Scenario -- The Contributions from Technology and Innovation -- Conclusion: Aiming at Food Security and Growth -- Further Reading -- 6 Boosting Education -- Recent Education Trends in Africa -- Comparing Education in Africa with Other Regions -- The Low Quality of Education in Africa -- Rates of Gender Exclusion -- Africa's Future Education Requirements -- Modelling the Impact of Improved Quality, Quantity and Nature of Education Across Gender: The Boosting Education Scenario -- From Basics to Technology -- Conclusion: Prioritising Education Outcomes -- Further Reading -- 7 Poverty, Inequality and Growth -- Globalisation and the Sense of Relative Deprivation -- The Interplay Between Inequality and Growth -- The SDGs and Measuring Extreme Poverty -- The Impact of the Additional Poverty Lines -- The Current Situation in Africa -- The Potential of Social Grants to Reduce Poverty -- The Promise of an African Welfare State? -- Modelling the Impact of Using Tax Revenues for Social Grants: The Social Grants for Africa Scenario -- Conclusion: Reducing Poverty Through Rapid and Inclusive Economic Growth -- Further Reading -- 8 Changing Productive Structures -- The Contribution of Services to Growth -- The Impact of the Diffusion of Knowledge -- Manufacturing in Africa -- Composition of African Economies -- Industrialisation and Growth in Africa -- Modelling the Impact of Industrialisation: The Made in Africa Scenario -- Costs and Benefits of a Manufacturing Pathway -- Conclusion: Promoting and Intensifying Local Production and Trade -- Further Reading -- 9 The Future of Work in Africa -- Trends in Employment. ; Automation and the Threat to Work -- The Impact of Digitisation in Ghana -- The Promise of Greater Economic Formalisation in Ghana -- Conclusion: Thinking Differently About the Future -- Further Reading -- 10 Technological Innovation and the Power of Leapfrogging -- The Shale and Tight Oil Revolution in the USA -- The Potential of Renewable Energy in Africa -- The Challenge of Energy Storage (Power-to-X) -- Mobile Phones and Access to the Internet-A Big Leap for Africa -- M-Pesa and Innovation in Mobile Banking -- Mobile Phones and Social Change -- Formalising the Informal Sector -- Modelling the Impact of Improved Electricity Access, ICT and Digitisation: The Leapfrogging Scenario -- Conclusion: Harnessing Technology for the Future -- Further Reading -- 11 Trade and Growth -- From GATT to the Decline of Multilateralism -- The Impact of Preferential Access: Everything But Arms and AGOA -- Africa's Shifting Trade Relations with the Rest of the World -- Intra-African Trade and Efforts at Advancing Regional Integration -- The Need for Connecting Infrastructure-And the Challenge of Non-Tariff Barriers -- Perspectives on the Promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) -- The Potential Impact of AfCFTA? -- Modelling the Impact of Regional Economic Integration: The Africa Free Trade Area Scenario -- Conclusion: Advancing Africa's Trade -- Further Reading -- 12 Prospects for Greater Peace -- Trends in Conflict -- Africa's Leadership in Conflict Prevention and Management -- Changing Characteristics of Organised Violence -- More Riots -- Structural Drivers of Violence -- Regime Capacity, Type and Regime Dissonance -- Youth and Unemployment -- Poor Governance and High Levels of Inequality -- Modelling the Prospects for Greater Peace: The Silencing the Guns Scenario -- Conclusion: Focusing on Conflict Prevention -- Further Reading. ; 13 Good Governance, Democracy and Development -- The State of Democracy in Africa -- Is Democracy Making a Difference to Development Prospects in Africa? -- The Realities of Neopatrimonialism in Africa -- The Role of Leadership in Development -- Modelling the Impact of More Democracy: The Fourth Wave of Democracy Scenario -- Conclusion: Promoting Democracy, State Capacity and Human Development -- Further Reading -- 14 Aid, Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment -- The Shifting Global Aid Landscape -- Leveraging Foreign Direct Investment for Africa -- China's Growing Footprint in Africa -- Remittance Flows to Africa -- Modelling Increased FDI, Aid and Remittances: The External Support Scenario -- The Impact of the Combined External Support Scenario -- Conclusion: Unlocking Foreign Assistance -- Further Reading -- 15 Climate Change -- Africa as a Climate Change Taker -- The Global Energy Transition -- Carbon Emissions and Energy in Africa -- The Impact of Climate Change -- Comparing Carbon Emissions in Different Scenarios -- Responding to Climate Change -- Development as a Coping and Planning Mechanism -- Conclusion: Finding an Environmentally Sustainable Pathway -- Further Reading -- 16 Closing the Gap -- Prospects in the Close the Gap Scenario -- GDP Per Capita in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Size of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Extreme Poverty in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Carbon Emissions in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Structural Change of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Comparing the Impact of Individual Scenarios Over Time -- Scenario Comparison Using Income Per Person as Key Indicator -- Scenario Comparison Using Progress with the Human Development Index, Inequality and Extreme Poverty -- What Is Possible? A Comparison with China -- A Passion for Knowledge and Development -- In Conclusion -- Further Reading.
• Sommario/riassunto: This open access textbook offers a critical introduction to human and economic development prospects in Africa revolving around three questions: where is Africa today, what explains the current state, and, given historical trends and what we know about the world, where do we think the continent will be in 2040? And, a final question: what can we do to create a better tomorrow? It models ambitious progress in health, demographics, agriculture, education, industrialization, technological leapfrogging, increased trade, greater stability, better governance and external support. The book reviews the future of work/jobs, poverty and the impact of climate change. A combined Closing the Gap scenario presents a forecast of what could be possible by 2040. Each chapter suggests which policies might accelerate prospects for each sector. Written in an accessible style, and supported by a range of pedagogical features, this textbook introduces undergraduate and graduate students to the contemporary human and economic development prospects in Africa.
• Altri titoli varianti: Future of Africa
• Titolo autorizzato: The Future of Africa
• ISBN: 3-030-46590-X
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910473454203321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II