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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton
| Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton |
| Autore | Clinton Kevin |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
JohnsonMarianne
ChenHuigang KamenikOndrej LaxtonDouglas |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - United States - Econometric models Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models Interest rates - United States - Econometric models Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models Bank loans - United States - Econometric models Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models Foreign Exchange Inflation Macroeconomics Production and Operations Management Macroeconomics: Production Energy: Demand and Supply Prices Price Level Deflation Currency Foreign exchange Oil prices Output gap Potential output Real exchange rates Production Economic theory |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7594-4
1-282-84420-2 1-4527-2887-9 1-4518-7361-1 9786612844201 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788225703321 |
Clinton Kevin
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton
| Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton |
| Autore | Clinton Kevin |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 23 p. : ill |
| Disciplina | 330.9;330.90511 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
ChenHuigang
JohnsonMarianne KamenikOndrej LaxtonDouglas |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Financial crises - United States - Econometric models Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models Interest rates - United States - Econometric models Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models Bank loans - United States - Econometric models Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models Currency Deflation Economic theory Energy: Demand and Supply Foreign Exchange Foreign exchange Inflation Macroeconomics Macroeconomics: Production Oil prices Output gap Potential output Price Level Prices Production and Operations Management Production Real exchange rates |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7594-4
1-282-84420-2 1-4527-2887-9 1-4518-7361-1 9786612844201 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Model Structure -- 2.1 Overview -- 2.2 Model components -- 2.2.1 Variable definitions -- 2.2.2 Underlying equilibrium values and stochastic processes -- 2.2.3 Bank lending tightening -- 2.2.4 Output gap -- 2.2.5 Unemployment -- 2.2.6 Inflation -- 2.2.7 Policy rule for the interest rate -- 2.2.8 Exchange rate -- 2.2.9 Variance and coviariance of disturbances -- III. GPM-Generated Confidence Bands -- 3.1 Construction -- 3.2 U.S. inflation -- 3.3 U.S. interest rate -- 3.4 U.S. output gap -- 3.5 Bank lending tightening -- IV. Conclusions -- References -- Figures -- 1. U.S. Year-on Year CPI Inflation -- 2. U.S. Interest Rate -- 3. U.S. Output Gap -- 4. Bank Lending Tightening -- 5. Oil Price. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817621303321 |
|
Clinton Kevin
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods / / Alin Mirestean, Charalambos Tsangarides, Huigang Chen
| Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods / / Alin Mirestean, Charalambos Tsangarides, Huigang Chen |
| Autore | Mirestean Alin |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (45 p.) |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
TsangaridesCharalambos
ChenHuigang |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Panel analysis
Bayesian statistical decision theory Econometrics Data Processing Bayesian Analysis: General Estimation Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology Computer Programs: General Bayesian inference Econometrics & economic statistics Data capture & analysis Bayesian models Estimation techniques Data processing Econometric models Electronic data processing |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7192-2
1-4527-1274-3 9786612842955 1-4518-7221-6 1-282-84295-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Model Uncertainty in the Bayesian Context; A. Model Selection and Hypothesis Testing; B. Bayesian Model Averaging; C. Choice of Priors; III. Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging; A. A Dynamic Panel Data Model with Endogenous Regressors; B. Estimation and Moment Conditions; C. The Limited Information Criterion; IV. Monte Carlo Simualtions and Results; A. The Data Generating Process; B. Simulation Results; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Posterior Probability of the True Model; 2. Posterior Probability Ratio of True Model/Best among the Other Models
3. Probability of Retrieving the True Model4. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Posterior Inclusi; 5. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Estimated Paramet; 6. Posterior Probability of the True Model (Non-Gaussian Case); 7. Posterior Probability Ratio: True Model/best among the Other Models (Non-Gaussian Case); 8. Probability of Retrieving the True Model (Non-Gaussian Case); 9. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Posterior Inclusion Probability for Each Variable (Non-Gaussian Case); 10. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Estimated Parameter Values (Non- Gaussian Case) Appendix A Figures1. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 1; 2. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 2; 3. Box Plots for Parameters in Table 5; 4. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 6; 5. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 7; 6. Box Plots for Parameters in Table 10 |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788337703321 |
|
Mirestean Alin
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods / / Alin Mirestean, Charalambos Tsangarides, Huigang Chen
| Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods / / Alin Mirestean, Charalambos Tsangarides, Huigang Chen |
| Autore | Mirestean Alin |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (45 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.152 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
ChenHuigang
TsangaridesCharalambos |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Panel analysis
Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayesian Analysis: General Bayesian inference Bayesian models Computer Programs: General Data capture & analysis Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology Data Processing Data processing Econometric models Econometrics & economic statistics Econometrics Electronic data processing Estimation techniques Estimation |
| ISBN |
1-4623-7192-2
1-4527-1274-3 9786612842955 1-4518-7221-6 1-282-84295-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Model Uncertainty in the Bayesian Context; A. Model Selection and Hypothesis Testing; B. Bayesian Model Averaging; C. Choice of Priors; III. Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging; A. A Dynamic Panel Data Model with Endogenous Regressors; B. Estimation and Moment Conditions; C. The Limited Information Criterion; IV. Monte Carlo Simualtions and Results; A. The Data Generating Process; B. Simulation Results; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Posterior Probability of the True Model; 2. Posterior Probability Ratio of True Model/Best among the Other Models
3. Probability of Retrieving the True Model4. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Posterior Inclusi; 5. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Estimated Paramet; 6. Posterior Probability of the True Model (Non-Gaussian Case); 7. Posterior Probability Ratio: True Model/best among the Other Models (Non-Gaussian Case); 8. Probability of Retrieving the True Model (Non-Gaussian Case); 9. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Posterior Inclusion Probability for Each Variable (Non-Gaussian Case); 10. Model Recovery: Medians and Variances of Estimated Parameter Values (Non- Gaussian Case) Appendix A Figures1. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 1; 2. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 2; 3. Box Plots for Parameters in Table 5; 4. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 6; 5. Posterior Densities for the Probabilities in Table 7; 6. Box Plots for Parameters in Table 10 |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910812320003321 |
|
Mirestean Alin
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||