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Inflation in Tajikistan : : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges / / Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki
| Inflation in Tajikistan : : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges / / Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki |
| Autore | Vtyurina Svetlana |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2010 |
| Descrizione fisica | 19 p. : ill |
| Disciplina | 332.1 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | AlturkiFahad |
| Collana | IMF Working Papers |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Tajikistan
Monetary policy - Tajikistan Econometrics Foreign Exchange Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General Forecasting and Other Model Applications Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models Multiple Variables: General Macroeconomics Monetary economics Currency Foreign exchange Economic Forecasting Econometrics & economic statistics Monetary base Exchange rates Economic forecasting Vector error correction models Prices Money supply Econometric models |
| ISBN |
1-4623-5777-6
1-4527-2079-7 1-282-84526-8 1-4519-6217-7 9786612845260 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto | Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Tajikistan -- III. Empirical Investigation -- IV. Summary and Considerations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests -- 2. Johansen Co-Integration Tests -- 3. Model Restriction and Weak Exogeneity Tests -- 4. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 1999-2009 -- Exhibits and Figures -- Exhibit -- 1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Tajikistan -- Figures -- 1. NBT Refinancing Rate and Bank Lending Rates, 2001-08 -- 2. Money Growth and Inflation, 2001-08 -- 3. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q1-2010Q4 -- 4. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q4-2010Q4 -- 5. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation, 1999-2009 -- 6. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on BARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2007-June 2009 -- 7. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2008-Dec. 2010. |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910817158303321 |
Vtyurina Svetlana
|
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2010 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
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Inflation Targeting and Communication : : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports / / Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, Ales Bulir
| Inflation Targeting and Communication : : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports / / Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, Ales Bulir |
| Autore | Smídková Katerina |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.11 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
KotlánViktor
NavrátilDavid BulirAles |
| Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Forecasting - Econometric models
Monetary policy - Econometric models Banks and banking, Central - Econometric models Banks and Banking Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Public Finance Forecasting Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy Forecasting and Other Model Applications Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General Macroeconomics Monetary economics Economic Forecasting Banking Public finance & taxation Inflation targeting Economic forecasting Central bank policy rate Communications in revenue administration Prices Monetary policy Interest rates Revenue |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1744-8
1-4527-3696-0 1-282-84185-8 9786612841859 1-4518-7092-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Why Inflation Targeting?; Figures; 1. Inflation and Its Determinants, 2000-05; II. Inflation Targeting and Communication; A. Central Bank Communication and Inflation Forecasts; B. The Public; 2. Inflation Forecasts, Policymaking, and Communication Under Conditional; III. Methodology and Sample Selection; 3. The Public's Scrutiny of Central Bank Communication; A. Methodology; B. Sample Selection and Data; IV. Empirical Findings; Tables; 1. Inflation Targeters: Sample Characteristics; A. Summary of Results; 2. Breakdown of Communication Results, Sample Average, 2000-05
3. Clarity of Communication, Sample Averages, 2000-05B. "The Central Bank that Cried Wolf"; 4. Clarity of Communication, Individual Countries, 2000-05; 4. Monetary Policy Communication: 2000-05; C. Robustness Checks; 5. Clarity of Communication: Robustness Checks; V. Conclusions: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; 5. Clarity of Communication, the 2-Year Forecast Horizon, 2000-05; References; Annex |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910789100103321 |
|
Smídková Katerina
|
||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inflation Targeting and Communication : : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports / / Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, Ales Bulir
| Inflation Targeting and Communication : : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports / / Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, Ales Bulir |
| Autore | Smídková Katerina |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.11 |
| Altri autori (Persone) |
KotlánViktor
NavrátilDavid BulirAles |
| Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
| Soggetto topico |
Inflation (Finance) - Forecasting - Econometric models
Monetary policy - Econometric models Banks and banking, Central - Econometric models Banks and Banking Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Public Finance Forecasting Price Level Deflation Monetary Policy Forecasting and Other Model Applications Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General Macroeconomics Monetary economics Economic Forecasting Banking Public finance & taxation Inflation targeting Economic forecasting Central bank policy rate Communications in revenue administration Prices Monetary policy Interest rates Revenue |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1744-8
1-4527-3696-0 1-282-84185-8 9786612841859 1-4518-7092-2 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Why Inflation Targeting?; Figures; 1. Inflation and Its Determinants, 2000-05; II. Inflation Targeting and Communication; A. Central Bank Communication and Inflation Forecasts; B. The Public; 2. Inflation Forecasts, Policymaking, and Communication Under Conditional; III. Methodology and Sample Selection; 3. The Public's Scrutiny of Central Bank Communication; A. Methodology; B. Sample Selection and Data; IV. Empirical Findings; Tables; 1. Inflation Targeters: Sample Characteristics; A. Summary of Results; 2. Breakdown of Communication Results, Sample Average, 2000-05
3. Clarity of Communication, Sample Averages, 2000-05B. "The Central Bank that Cried Wolf"; 4. Clarity of Communication, Individual Countries, 2000-05; 4. Monetary Policy Communication: 2000-05; C. Robustness Checks; 5. Clarity of Communication: Robustness Checks; V. Conclusions: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; 5. Clarity of Communication, the 2-Year Forecast Horizon, 2000-05; References; Annex |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910821636703321 |
|
Smídková Katerina
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||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation / / Emil Stavrev, Helge Berger
| The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation / / Emil Stavrev, Helge Berger |
| Autore | Stavrev Emil |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (31 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.46 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | BergerHelge |
| Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
| Soggetto topico |
Monetary policy - Econometric models
Money - Econometric models Inflation (Finance) - Forecasting - Econometric models Econometrics Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Forecasting and Other Model Applications Price Level Deflation Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models Classification Methods Cluster Analysis Principal Components Factor Models Demand for Money Economic Forecasting Macroeconomics Econometrics & economic statistics Monetary economics Economic forecasting Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Factor models Demand for money Prices Econometric models Money |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1341-8
1-4527-4908-6 1-4518-7024-8 1-282-84117-3 9786612841170 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Models of Inflation; A. DSGE Models; B. Partial Equilibrium Models; C. Empirical Models; IV. Empirical Methods and Data; A. Estimation Techniques; B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates; C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money; D. Data; V. Results; A. The Marginal Contribution of Money; Figures; 1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models; 2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models; 3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models; B. Comparison of Money-Based Models; C. Comparison Across All Models
Tables1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendices; I. Empirical Specifications; II. Bayesian Priors |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910788233803321 |
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Stavrev Emil
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| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation / / Emil Stavrev, Helge Berger
| The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation / / Emil Stavrev, Helge Berger |
| Autore | Stavrev Emil |
| Edizione | [1st ed.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (31 p.) |
| Disciplina | 332.46 |
| Altri autori (Persone) | BergerHelge |
| Collana |
IMF Working Papers
IMF working paper |
| Soggetto topico |
Monetary policy - Econometric models
Money - Econometric models Inflation (Finance) - Forecasting - Econometric models Econometrics Inflation Money and Monetary Policy Forecasting Forecasting and Other Model Applications Price Level Deflation Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models Classification Methods Cluster Analysis Principal Components Factor Models Demand for Money Economic Forecasting Macroeconomics Econometrics & economic statistics Monetary economics Economic forecasting Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Factor models Demand for money Prices Econometric models Money |
| ISBN |
1-4623-1341-8
1-4527-4908-6 1-4518-7024-8 1-282-84117-3 9786612841170 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Models of Inflation; A. DSGE Models; B. Partial Equilibrium Models; C. Empirical Models; IV. Empirical Methods and Data; A. Estimation Techniques; B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates; C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money; D. Data; V. Results; A. The Marginal Contribution of Money; Figures; 1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models; 2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models; 3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models; B. Comparison of Money-Based Models; C. Comparison Across All Models
Tables1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendices; I. Empirical Specifications; II. Bayesian Priors |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910812623903321 |
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Stavrev Emil
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||
| Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910132307403321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris
| Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris |
| Autore | Harris Maury |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (397 p.) |
| Disciplina | 330.01/12 |
| Soggetto topico |
Economic forecasting
Business cycles Forecasting |
| ISBN |
1-119-20958-7
1-118-86517-0 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Nota di contenuto |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts
Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910815689203321 |
|
Harris Maury
|
||
| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
International journal of forecasting [[e-journal]]
| International journal of forecasting [[e-journal]] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | [Amsterdam], : North-Holland |
| Soggetto topico |
Forecasting
Business forecasting Economic forecasting |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Periodicals. |
| ISSN | 1872-8200 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Periodico |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNISA-996210675503316 |
| [Amsterdam], : North-Holland | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. di Salerno | ||
| ||
International journal of forecasting [[e-journal]]
| International journal of forecasting [[e-journal]] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | [Amsterdam], : North-Holland |
| Soggetto topico |
Forecasting
Business forecasting Economic forecasting |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Periodicals. |
| ISSN | 1872-8200 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Periodico |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910143863803321 |
| [Amsterdam], : North-Holland | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting / / Douglas C. Montgomery, Cheryl L. Jennings, Murat Kulahci
| Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting / / Douglas C. Montgomery, Cheryl L. Jennings, Murat Kulahci |
| Autore | Montgomery Douglas C. |
| Edizione | [Second edition.] |
| Pubbl/distr/stampa | Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 |
| Descrizione fisica | 1 online resource (671 p.) |
| Disciplina | 519.55 |
| Collana | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics |
| Soggetto topico |
Time-series analysis
Forecasting |
| Soggetto genere / forma | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 1-118-74522-1 |
| Formato | Materiale a stampa |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione | eng |
| Record Nr. | UNINA-9910460468003321 |
|
Montgomery Douglas C.
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| Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015 | ||
| Materiale a stampa | ||
| Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II | ||
| ||
Soggetto topico
-
Forecasting
(163)
- Economic forecasting (40)
- Economic Forecasting (25)
- Forecasting and Other Model Applications (25)
- Prices (25)