Nota di contenuto |
Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- About the Author -- Introduction -- The Trap Is Set -- Destined for War -- Impact of Thucydides's Trap -- Chinese Perspectives on the Trap -- Allison's Background and Career -- Work Outside Harvard -- CCG's Work and Relationship with Professor Allison -- Aims of This Book -- Contents of This Book -- 1 Thucydides's Trap Revisited -- How Did Thucydides Understand the Causes of the Peloponnesian War? -- What Does Thucydides Teach Us About the Distinction Between Proximate and Structural Causes? -- What Is the "Thucydides's Trap"? -- What Does Historical Experience Tell Us About the Danger of Thucydides's Trap? -- What Relevance Does Thucydides's Trap Have to US-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century? -- 2 Tectonic Shifts -- Is China "Rising" or "Risen"? -- What Is the Significance of China's Success in Poverty Alleviation? What Lessons Can Be Drawn from This Program? -- How Do You Describe the Overall Structural Trend of the US-China Relationship? -- What Has Happened to the Relative Power of the United States and China Since the US Victory in the Cold War? -- How Is This Rising China Impacting the U.S.? -- What Has Been the Reaction to Your Thesis in Washington? Do You Get a Sense of Acceptance About China's Rise, or Is There an Unwillingness to Grasp the Extent of the Shift? -- ON ECONOMIC COMPETITION -- Why Should We Pay Attention to Economic Measures Like GDP in Understanding the Rivalry Between the US and China? What Is the Relationship Between Economic Strength and Power? -- How Has the Relative Balance Between the GDP of the US and China Changed in Recent Decades? -- Economically, When Will China Overtake the US? -- What Is the Best Metric to Measure the Relative Economic Strength of the US and China? -- So, How Do the US and China Compare Economically When Using PPP?.
Who Holds the Upper Hand on Trade? What Is the Significance of America's Turn Away from Multilateral FTAs and China's Membership in New Trade Pacts Like RCEP? -- China May Trade More Than the US, but Doesn't the US Retain a Large Advantage in Terms of the Strength of Its Multinational Corporations? -- Which Country Attracts the Most Foreign Investment? -- Is China's Continued Economic Rise Inevitable? What Could Derail China from Its Current Growth Trajectory? -- Given These Challenges, Why Should We Expect China to Remain on a Solid Growth Trajectory? -- ON FINANCIAL COMPETITION -- Is the Position of the US Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency Unassailable? How Much Progress Has Been Made in the Internationalization of the RMB? -- What Do China's Advances in Digital Currency and Fintech Mean for the Dominance of the US Dollar? -- What Strength Does the US Derive from the Dominance of the Dollar? Could It Be Used as Leverage Against China? -- How Do the Two Countries Compare in Other Aspects of Finance Such as Equity Markets, Banking, and Venture Capital? -- What Does China's Economic Rise Mean for Asia and the Rest of the World? -- ON TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION -- How Would You Compare the Overall Technological Strength of the U.S. and China Today? -- How Will Technology Competition Shape the Relationship over the Next Decade and What Are the Ramifications for the Economies of the U.S. and China? -- Is Tech Competition Between the US and China Necessarily a Bad Thing? -- Why Is AI So Important? What Significance Does AI Have for the Military Realm? -- What Is the Current State of the AI Race Between the U.S. and China? -- What Are America's Advantages in the AI Race? -- What Challenges Does the US Face in AI Development? -- What Are China's Advantages in the AI Race? -- Who Holds the Edge in AI Talent?.
How Is the AI Race Likely to Unfold over the Next Decade? -- How Do the U.S. and China Currently Compare in the Rollout of 5G Infrastructure? -- Why Has the U.S. Fallen Behind in 5G? -- Are There Any Areas Where the U.S. Holds the Edge in 5G? -- Leading Chip Firms Like Intel, Nvidia, and Qualcomm Are American. Doesn't This Give the U.S. a Dominant Lead in Semiconductors? -- What Progress Has China Made in Semiconductors? Can China Catch up to the U.S. in This Field? -- What Is the Impact of Policies to Cut off China's Access to Semiconductors? -- Can China Catch Up or Even Take the Lead in the Field of Semiconductors? -- What Will Be the Impact of the 2022 Chips Act Which Will Allocate over 50 Billion to Subsidize U.S. Chipmakers? -- What Are the Relative Strengths of the U.S. and China in the Field of Green Energy? -- Which Areas of the Green Tech Supply Chain Does China Hold the Advantage? -- What Are America's Advantages When It Comes to Green Tech? -- How Do the Two Countries Compare in Terms of the Pipeline for Talent? -- Doesn't China's Huge Population of 1.4 Billion Give It the Upper Hand When It Comes to Talent? -- Is the U.S. Set to Maintain Its Place as a Magnet for Global Talent? -- How Do the U.S. and China Compare in Terms of R& -- D Spending? -- Which Country Leads in Terms of Patents, Publications, and Innovative Companies? -- ON MILITARY COMPETITION -- Doesn't the U.S. Spend Much More on Defense Than China? -- How Does the Comparison of Defense Spending Change if Measured in Terms of PPP? -- How Might Frontier Technologies Like AI and Quantum Computing Play into the Balance of Military Power? -- What Do China's Advances in Space Exploration and Technology Mean for Its Military Capabilities? -- ON DIPLOMATIC COMPETITION -- How Do You Define Diplomacy? -- What Are the Key Components of Diplomacy?.
How Do the Diplomatic Networks of the U.S. and China Compare Today? -- How Do the Two Countries Compare in Terms of Visits by High-Level Officials? -- How Is the Balance Changing in Terms of the Presence and Actions of China and the U.S. in International Organizations? -- How Do You Assess the Changes in the Balance of Diplomatic Strength Between the U.S. and China? -- What Are the Current Trends Regarding Perceptions of the Two Countries on Other Developed Countries? -- How Do the U.S. and China Compare in Terms of Soft Power? -- ON THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER -- If Unipolarity Is Over, What Replaces It? What Does This Mean for America's Role in the World? -- What Is Meant by "Spheres of Influence"? -- How Have Spheres of Influence Changed in the Twenty-First Century? -- What Is the Future of Globalization in Our New Multipolar World? -- Despite Their Intense Rivalry, Why Are the U.S. and China "Condemned to Co-exist"? -- 3 Are China and the U.S. Really "Destined for War"? -- If We Look at the U.S.-China Relationship Today, How Does It Compare to the Model of Thucydides's Trap That Predicts Conflict Between a Rising and Incumbent Power? -- Could China and the U.S. Be Sleepwalking Toward War and Stumbling Down the Path Germany and the United Kingdom Took at the Beginning of the Last Century? -- Is War Between China and the U.S. Inevitable? -- What Factors Can Drive a Thucydidean Dynamic that Leads to War? -- As Individuals, How Do the Current Leaders of the U.S. and China Affect the Likelihood of Thucydides's Trap Playing Out and Leading to War? -- Can Ideological Differences Between the U.S. and China Possibly Be Managed? Or Will They Be More Likely to Intensify? -- In What Ways Are the U.S. and China Similar to Each Other? In What Ways Are They Fundamentally Incompatible?.
What Does China Want? Does China Want to Displace the U.S. in Asia? -- Are the U.S. and China Really in a "Cold War"? -- Are China and the U.S. Going to Decouple? -- Can the Thucydidian Dynamic Really Lead to War If Both Sides Know That War Makes No Sense? -- Can Shared Threats Reduce the Chance of War? -- How Has the Pandemic Changed the Course of U.S.-China Relations? -- What Does the War in Ukraine Mean for U.S.-China Relations? -- ON PATHS TO WAR -- What Does History Tell Us About How Wars Begin Once the Conditions of Thucydides's Trap Are in Place? -- What Are the Potential Sparks for a U.S.-China Conflict? -- What Makes Taiwan a Dangerous Potential Flashpoint? How Can This Risk Be Mitigated? -- Could Third-Party Provocations Really See U.S. and China Come to War? -- Can Economic Conflict Lead to a Real War? -- 4 Avenues of Escape -- RECOGNIZE AND ACCEPT STRUCTURAL REALITIES -- Where Should We Start If We Want to Avoid a War Between the U.S. and China? -- What Kind of Mindset Is Needed If We Are to Escape Thucydides's Trap? -- ON THE VALUE OF APPLIED HISTORY -- What Is "Applied History" and How Can It Help Us Avoid War? -- How Could a U.S. President Use Applied History to Make More Informed Decisions? -- What Can We Learn from Henry Kissinger About How to Use Applied History? -- ON REDEFINING THE RELATIONSHIP -- What Examples Can We Draw from Chinese History for Ideas on How to Escape Thucydides's Trap? -- What Models or Inspiration Can We Draw from U.S. History? -- What Did JFK Mean by a "World Safe for Diversity"? -- JFK Was Originally a Hardened, Emotionally Committed "Cold War Warrior." Why Did He Change His Mind So Dramatically? -- What Relevance Does JFK's Insight Have for the US-China Relationship Today? -- Can China's Concept of a "New Theory of Great Power Relations" Offer a Way Out of Thucydides's Trap?.
How Can the U.S. and China Use Shared Interests to Redefine Their Relationship?.
|