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Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter 1 The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism -- THE GROWING FOCUS ON TERRORISM -- TERRORISM VERSUS ASYMMETRIC WARFARE -- NOTES -- Chapter 2 Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk -- LOOKING BEYOND EMOTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF TERRORISM -- RETHINKING THE MID- AND LONG-TERM RISK OF CBRN ATTACK -- PATTERNS AND NON-PATTERNS IN THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS -- CASUALTIES VERSUS INCIDENTS: THE LACK OF CORRELATION -- U.S. AND AMERICAN CASUALTIES VERSUS INTERNATIONAL CASUALTIES -- CONSIDERING THE THREAT FROM STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS -- States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War -- Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors -- The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks" -- Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives -- CONSIDERATION OF THE FULL SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE TYPES AND METHODS OF ATTACK: THE NEED TO CONSIDER "WORST CASES" -- MAKING OFFENSE, DETERRENCE, DENIAL, DEFENSE, AND RETALIATION PART OF HOMELAND DEFENSE -- LINKING HOMELAND DEFENSE TO COUNTERPROLIFERATION -- NOTES -- Chapter 3 Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats -- POTENTIAL STATE ACTORS -- A Department of State Assessment of State Threats -- A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States -- The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis -- FOREIGN TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS -- Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action -- Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists -- Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants -- DOMESTIC TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS -- The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks -- PROBABILITY VERSUS PROBABILITY THEORY -- NOTES -- Chapter 4 Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response -- ILLUSTRATIVE ATTACK SCENARIOS.
"CONVENTIONAL" MEANS OF ATTACK -- WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK -- The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons -- The Probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks -- Methods of Delivery -- Detection and Interception -- Acquiring Chemical Weapons -- The Impact of Technological Change -- The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study -- Political and Psychological Effects -- The Problem of Response -- BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS A MEANS OF ATTACK -- Categorizing the Biological Threat -- Case Studies: Iraq and Russia -- State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date -- The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident -- Cases in the United States -- The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons -- Anthrax As a Case Example -- Botulism As a Case Example -- Plague As a Case Example -- Smallpox As a Case Example -- Detect, Defend, and Respond to What? -- Means of Delivery -- Manufacturing Biological Weapons -- Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture -- The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture -- New Types of Biological Weapons -- Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature -- Agricultural and Ecological Attacks -- The Problem of Response -- Funding Half-Measures and False Solutions? -- The Need for Constantly Updated Net Technical Assessments -- Reconsidering the Practical Problems in Defense and Response -- The Problem of Large-Scale or Highly Efficient Attacks -- Other Problems in the Present Response Effort -- Cost-Effectiveness of Real-World Options -- RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK -- The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons -- The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons -- NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK -- Lethality and Effectiveness.
Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon -- The Problem of Delivery -- Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks -- Problems in Responding to a Nuclear Attack -- Rethinking the Unthinkable about Nuclear Attacks on the U.S. Homeland -- NOTES -- Chapter 5 Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats -- DR. PANGLOSS VERSUS CHICKEN LITTLE AND THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF -- THE PROBLEM OF DETECTION, WARNING, AND RESPONSE -- LIVING WITH COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY: A FLEXIBLE AND EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH -- THE "MORNING AFTER," MULTIPLE ATTACKS -- THE "MORNING AFTER" AND THE "LEARNING CURVE EFFECT" -- NOTES -- Chapter 6 U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability -- KEY PRESIDENTIAL DECISION DIRECTIVES AND LEGISLATION AFFECTING THE FEDERAL RESPONSE -- ONGOING CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT -- THE GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT -- The FY2000 Program -- The FY2001 Program -- THE DETAILS OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT -- The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending -- Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort -- Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending -- Antiterrorism -- Counterterrorism -- "Core Spending" on Terrorism -- Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction -- WMD Antiterrorism Activities -- WMD Counterterrorism -- Research and Development for Defense against WMD -- NOTES -- Chapter 7 Federal Efforts by Department and Agency -- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE -- NATIONAL ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY PROGRAM -- CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY -- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE -- DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE -- Analyzing the Role of the DOD -- The Size of the Current DOD Effort -- Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense -- Key DOD Activities -- Antiterrorism and Force Protection -- Counterterrorism.
Terrorism Consequence Management -- Domestic Preparedness Program -- Consequence Management Response Program -- Defense Threat Reduction Agency -- The Chemical/Biological Defense Program -- WMD Civil Support Teams -- Joint Task Force for Civil Support -- Defense Logistics Agency -- Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response -- Research and Development -- Intelligence -- Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures -- The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program -- Conclusions -- DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY -- Office of Nonproliferation and National Security -- Office of Emergency Management -- Office of Defense Programs -- Office of Emergency Response -- Nuclear Emergency Search Team -- Radiological Assistance Program -- The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program -- Research and Development -- ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY -- Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response -- On-Scene Coordinator -- FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY -- Response and Recovery Directorate -- Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate -- U.S. Fire Administration -- National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute -- GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION -- DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES -- Metropolitan Medical Response Systems -- National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program -- Public Health Surveillance System for WMD -- Research and Development -- DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR -- DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION -- National Domestic Preparedness Office -- Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support -- State Domestic Preparedness Equipment Program -- Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Medical Services Training Program -- OSLDPS Technical Assistance Activities.
State Domestic Preparedness Equipment Program Needs Assessment and Strategy Development Initiative -- TOPOFF Exercises -- National Domestic Preparedness Consortium -- Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program -- National Institute of Justice -- NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY -- NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION -- DEPARTMENT OF STATE -- Embassy Protection -- Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism -- Foreign Emergency Support Teams -- Technical Support Working Group -- Bureau of Consular Affairs -- Bureau of Diplomatic Security -- Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program -- Export Controls and Homeland Defense -- Arms Control and Homeland Defense -- DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION -- DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY -- DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS -- LOOKING BEYOND SEPTEMBER 2001 -- NOTES -- Chapter 8 Federal, State, and Local Cooperation -- PLANNING FOR LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TERRORISM -- WEST NILE OUTBREAK -- THE LESSONS FROM "JOINTNESS" -- NOTES -- Chapter 9 How Other Nations Deal with These Threats -- LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT -- POLICIES AND STRATEGIES -- CLAIMED RELIANCE ON CRIMINAL PROSECUTION AS THE MAJOR RESPONSE AND DETERRENT -- OVERSIGHT, PLANNING, PROGRAMMING, AND BUDGETING -- RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS ARE TARGETED AT LIKELY THREATS, NOT VULNERABILITIES: LIMITED CONCERN WITH WMD THREATS -- LEARNING FROM FOREIGN COUNTRIES -- NOTES -- Chapter 10 Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism -- THE GILMORE, BREMER, AND HART-RUDMAN COMMISSIONS -- AREAS WHERE THE COMMISSIONS MADE SIMILAR RECOMMENDATIONS -- Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management -- Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight -- Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing -- Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control.
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems.
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Strategic threats and national missile defenses : defending the U.S. homeland / / Anthony H. Cordesman
