Uncertainty in risk assessment : the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods / / Terje Aven [and three others]

• Autore: Aven Terje
• Pubblicazione: Chichester, West Sussex : , : Wiley, , 2014
• Edizione: 1st edition
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (198 pages) : illustrations
• Disciplina: 338.5
• Soggetto topico: Mathematics; Probabilities; Risk assessment - Statistical methods
• Classificazione: MAT029000
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods -- Contents -- Preface -- Part I: Introduction -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Risk -- 1.1.1 The concept of risk -- 1.1.2 Describing/measuring risk -- 1.1.3 Examples -- 1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment -- 1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context -- 1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments -- 1.5 Challenges: Discussion -- 1.5.1 Examples -- 1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment -- 1.5.3 The way ahead -- References - Part I -- Part II: Methods -- 2 Probabilistic approaches for treating uncertainty -- 2.1 Classical probabilities -- 2.2 Frequentist probabilities -- 2.3 Subjective probabilities -- 2.3.1 Betting interpretation -- 2.3.2 Reference to a standard for uncertainty -- 2.4 The Bayesian subjective probability framework -- 2.5 Logical probabilities -- 3 Imprecise probabilities for treating uncertainty -- 4 Possibility theory for treating uncertainty -- 4.1 Basics of possibility theory -- 4.2 Approaches for constructing possibility distributions -- 4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals -- 4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution -- 4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev's inequality -- 5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty -- 6 Methods of uncertainty propagation -- 6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting -- 6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework -- 6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework -- 6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework -- 6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting -- 6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework -- 6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic-evidence theory framework -- 7 Discussion. ; 7.1 Probabilistic analysis -- 7.2 Lower and upper probabilities -- 7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities -- 7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty -- 7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches -- References - Part II -- Part III: Practical Applications -- 8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis -- 8.1 Structural reliability analysis -- 8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue -- 8.2 Case study -- 8.3 Uncertainty representation -- 8.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 8.5 Results -- 8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method -- 9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment -- 9.1 Maintenance performance assessment -- 9.2 Case study -- 9.3 Uncertainty representation -- 9.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters -- 9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic-theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method -- 9.5 Results -- 10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis -- 10.1 Event tree analysis -- 10.2 Case study -- 10.3 Uncertainty representation -- 10.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 10.5 Results -- 10.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained by using other uncertainty representation and propagation methods -- 10.6.1 Purely probabilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty -- 10.6.2 Purely possibilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty -- 10.7 Result comparison -- 10.7.1 Comparison of results -- 10.7.2 Comparison of the results for the probability of occurrence of a severe consequence accident -- 11 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the evaluation of the consequences of industrial activity -- 11.1 Evaluation of the consequences of undesirable events. ; 11.2 Case study -- 11.3 Uncertainty representation -- 11.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 11.5 Results -- 11.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained using a purely probabilistic approach -- 12 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the risk assessment of a process plant -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Case description -- 12.3 The "textbook" Bayesian approach (level 2 analysis) -- 12.4 An alternative approach based on subjective probabilities (level 1 analysis) -- References - Part III -- Part IV: Conclusions -- 13 Conclusions -- References - Part IV -- Appendix A: Operative procedures for the methods of uncertainty propagation -- A.1 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework -- A.2 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework -- Appendix B: Possibility-probability transformation -- Reference -- Index.
• Sommario/riassunto: "There are a growing number of researchers and analysts who find the probability-based approaches for assessing risk and uncertainties to be too narrow and limiting. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment provides a broad conceptual framework and describes various alternative approaches of uncertainty representation and characterization therein such as probability-bound analysis, imprecise probability and evidence theory.The authors, whose own research has been at the forefront of developments in the field, include a number of real-life applications which demonstrate the practical use of the various methods in the different realistic circumstances. They provide invaluable practical guidance and clear recommendations on how and when to use the various approaches"--; "Uncertainty in Risk Assessment addresses an important and current problem for which there are competing solutions"--
• Titolo autorizzato: Uncertainty in risk assessment
• ISBN: 1-118-76305-X; 1-118-76303-3; 1-118-76306-8
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910828287203321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II