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Autore: | Smil Vaclav |
Titolo: | Global catastrophes and trends : the next fifty years / / Vaclav Smil |
Pubblicazione: | Cambridge, MA, : MIT Press, c2008 |
Edizione: | 1st ed. |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (322 p.) |
Disciplina: | 363.34 |
Soggetto topico: | Environmental risk assessment |
Natural disasters | |
Note generali: | Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph |
Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references and indexes. |
Nota di contenuto: | Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 How (Not) to Look Ahead -- 2 Fatal Discontinuities -- 3 Unfolding Trends -- 4 Environmental Change -- 5 Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty -- Appendix A Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes -- Appendix B Acronyms -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index. |
Sommario/riassunto: | From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. |
Titolo autorizzato: | Global catastrophes and trends |
ISBN: | 0-262-29162-2 |
0-262-28387-5 | |
1-4356-5499-4 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910818420903321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
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