Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America : : Is Brazil Systemic After All? / / Sebastian Sosa, Gustavo Adler

• Autore: Sosa Sebastian
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (23 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Investments, Foreign - Brazil; Exports and Imports; Foreign Exchange; Investments: General; Macroeconomics; Externalities; Trade: General; Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity; International economics; Currency; Foreign exchange; Spillovers; Exports; Depreciation; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Financial sector policy and analysis; International trade; National accounts; International finance; Saving and investment
• Soggetto geografico: Brazil Foreign economic relations; Brazil
• Altri autori: AdlerGustavo
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Latin America's Large Neighbors, 2010; Tables; 1. Business Cycle Comovement with Large Neighbors, 1990:Q1-2011:Q4; II. Export Linkages with Brazil; 2. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010; 3. South America: Intra-Regional Exports of Goods 1990-2010; III. How Important are Spillovers from Brazil? A VAR Approach; 4. South America's Exports: Exposure to Brazil, 1990-2010; 5. Export Performance in Brazil's Neighbors, 1990-2011; A. Impact of Brazil-Idiosyncratic Shocks; 6. Output Response to a Shock to Brazil's Output ; B. Amplification of Global Shocks2. Cumulative Impact on Output; 7. Output Response to a VIX Shock: Brazil's Amplifying Role; C. Variance Decomposition Analysis; IV. The Impact of Brazilian Real Depreciations; 8. Variance Decomposition of Output; 9. Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in Brazil: Export Performance in Southern Cone Neighbors; V. Conclusions; 10. Responses to a Shock to Brazil's Real Exchange Rate; Appendix Figures; 1. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010 (Percent of Total Exports); 2. South America: Exports of Goods by Region, 1990-2010 (Percent of GDP) ; 3. Output Response to a Shock to Global Output4. Output Response to a Shock to the VIX; 5. Output Response to a Shock to Commodity Prices; 6. Output Response to a Shock to Argentina's Output; 7. Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in Brazil: Export Performance in Southern Cone Neighbors; References
• Sommario/riassunto: Shocks stemming from Brazil - the large neighbor in South America - have historically been a source of concern for policy-makers in other countries of the region. This paper studies the importance of Brazil’s influence on its neighboring economies, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a Vector Auto Regression setting. While trade linkages with Brazil are significant for the Southern Cone countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), they are very weak for others. Consistent with this evidence, econometric results show that, while the Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur’s members) are vulnerable to output shocks from Brazil, the rest of South America is not. Spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks—through their impact on Brazil’s output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil’s currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.
• Titolo autorizzato: Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America
• ISBN: 1-4755-4839-7; 1-4755-7660-9
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910779101503321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/145