Forecasting ECB monetary policy : accuracy is (still) a matter of geography / / prepared by Helge Berger, Michael Ehrmann, and Marcel Fratzscher

• Autore: Berger Helge
• Pubblicazione: [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, c2006
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (42 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Monetary policy - European Union countries
• Soggetto geografico: European Union countries Economic policy
• Altri autori: EhrmannMichael FratzscherMarcel
• Note generali: "February 2006".
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References""
• Sommario/riassunto: Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.
• Titolo autorizzato: Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy
• ISBN: 1-4623-3064-9; 1-4527-0172-5; 1-283-51757-4; 9786613830029; 1-4519-0837-7
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910822936803321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF working paper ; ; WP/06/41.