Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries : : A "Fan-Chart" Approach / / Oya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, Jonathan Ostry

• Autore: Celasun Oya
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (54 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Debts, Public - Econometric models; Fiscal policy - Econometric models; Debt Management; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt; Debts, External; Debts, Public; Economic theory; Exports and Imports; External debt; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal policy; Fiscal stance; International economics; International Lending and Debt Problems; Macroeconomics; Macroeconomics: Production; National Deficit Surplus; Output gap; Production and Operations Management; Production; Public debt; Public finance & taxation; Public Finance; Simulation Methods; Sovereign Debt
• Soggetto geografico: Turkey
• Altri autori: DebrunXavier OstryJonathan
• Note generali: "March 2006."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK""; ""III. DEBT DYNAMICS AND THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL POLICY""; ""IV. RISKS TO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN FIVE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES""; ""V. CONCLUSION""; ""Appendix""; ""REFERENCES""
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.
• Titolo autorizzato: Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries
• ISBN: 1-4623-8210-X; 1-4519-9138-X; 1-283-51703-5; 9786613829481; 1-4519-0863-6
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910822934203321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2006/067