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[null,"1.","Record Nr.",null,"UNINA9910965957303321"]
[null,null,"Autore",null,"Seliktar Ofira"]
[null,null,"Titolo",null,"Failing the crystal ball test : the Carter administration and the fundamentalist revolution in Iran / / Ofira Seliktar"]
[null,null,"Pubbl/distr/stampa",null,"Westport, Conn. : , : Praeger, , 2000"]
[{"$nulls":4},"London : , : Bloomsbury Publishing, , 2024"]
[null,null,"ISBN",null,"9798400649516"]
[{"$nulls":4},"9780313002779"]
[{"$nulls":4},"0313002770"]
[null,null,"Edizione",null,"[1st ed.]"]
[null,null,"Descrizione fisica",null,"1 online resource (xxi, 245 pages)"]
[null,null,"Disciplina",null,"327.73055/09/047"]
[null,null,"Soggetti",null,"Islamic fundamentalism - Iran"]
[{"$nulls":4},"United States Foreign relations Iran"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Iran Foreign relations United States"]
[null,null,"Lingua di pubblicazione",null,"Inglese"]
[null,null,"Formato",null,"Materiale a stampa"]
[null,null,null,"Livello bibliografico","Monografia"]
[null,null,null,"Note generali","Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph"]
[null,null,null,"Nota di bibliografia","Includes bibliographical references (p. [195]-225) and index."]
[null,null,"Nota di contenuto",null,"Cover -- Failing the Crystal Ball Test -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change -- 1  Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change: Methodological Problems -- METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF TRACKING CHANGES IN A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM -- THE DIMENSIONS OF A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVES AS VALIDITY CLAIMS -- THE PROCESS OF LEGITIMIZING A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: THE DISCURSIVE APPROACH -- THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: THE SYSTEMIC AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL VIEW -- Systemic Level Mechanisms -- Individual Level Mechanisms -- ACTIVATING THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: TRIGGER CONDITIONS OF CHANGE -- THE NATURE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: SYMBOLS AND SUBSTANCE -- THE TIMETABLE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: CONTINUOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE -- THE PROCESS OF TRANSVALUATION: REFORMIST AND RADICAL -- 2  Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency -- THE DEVELOPMENTAL VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST -- THE DEPENDENCY VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD A SOCIALIST UTOPIA -- HEADED TOWARD CONVERGENCE: REDEFINING THE DIRECTION OF POLITICAL CHANGE -- LEANING TO THE LEFT: THE MYTH AND REALITY "]
[{"$nulls":4},"OF THE OBJECTIVE SOCIAL SCIENTIST -- FROM REALPOLITIK TO MORALPOLITIK: THE INTELLECTUAL BASE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- 3  Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration -- CRUSADING AGAINST REALPOLITIK: MAINSTREAMING THE NEW INTERNATIONALISM VISION -- THE UNLIKELY CRUSADER: JIMMY CARTER AND THE EMBRACE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- A COAT OF MANY COLORS: THE SHAPING OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S IRANIAN POLICY -- THE RESURGENT CONGRESS: THE AWACS SALE AS A REFERENDUM ON THE SHAH'S LEGITIMACY -- BACK HOME: THE SHAH AND THE OPPOSITION TAKE MEASURE OF THE \"CARTER REVOLUTION\" IN FOREIGN POLICY."]
[{"$nulls":4},"WASHINGTON'S CHALLENGE: THE POLITICS OF THE PREDICTIVE PROCESS -- 4  In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE ENDGAME: A VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE ENDGAME: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- 5  Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran -- THE SHORT SPRING OF THE MODERATES: THE EMERGENCE OF A DUAL GOVERNMENT -- MAKING SENSE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY AFTERMATH: WASHINGTON'S GUIDE FOR THE PERPLEXED -- THE HOT SUMMER: THE FUNDAMENTALIST TAKEOVER -- WHAT'S IN A NAME?: WASHINGTON BETS ON THE MODERATES -- THE LONG FALL: THE PUSH FOR A FUNDAMENTALIST HEGEMONY -- THE UNWELCOME VISITOR: THE POLITICS OF THE SHAH'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED STATES AND THE SEIZURE OF THE EMBASSY -- 6  Reflections on Predictive Failures -- PARADIGMATIC FAILURE -- POLICY FAILURE -- INTELLIGENCE FAILURE -- UNDERSTANDING THE \"GREAT UNKNOWN\": THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND PREDICTING POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE -- References -- Index -- About the Author."]
[null,null,null,"Sommario/riassunto","With the Iranian revolution as her focal point, Seliktar offers a systematic analysis of predictive failure in foreign policy at the paradigmatic, policy, and intelligence levels. Seliktar first examines how social science paradigms determine conceptualizations of political change, and then applies that analysis to understanding New Internationalism, the Carter administration's foreign policy philosophy at the time of the Shah's fall from power. Based in part on classified documents seized during the takeover of the American embassy, Failing the Crystal Ball Test is a valuable addition to Middle Eastern studies, international relations, and comparative politics collections. Seliktar engages in a general discussion of the problems entailed in correctly assessing the political legitimacy of foreign regimes, and describes the origins of New Internationalism as influenced by the New Left dependency theories. Examining President Carter's application of New Internationalism to Iran, Seliktar presents an account first of political influences on the predictive process during the early stages of revolution, and then of the administration's misreading of the likelihood of a fundamentalist regime in Teheran."]