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[null,"1.","Record Nr.",null,"UNINA9910781475303321"]
[null,null,"Autore",null,"Fingar Thomas"]
[null,null,"Titolo",null,"Reducing uncertainty [[electronic resource] ] : intelligence analysis and national security / / Thomas Fingar"]
[null,null,"Pubbl/distr/stampa",null,"Stanford, California, : Stanford Security Studies, 2011"]
[null,null,"ISBN",null,"0-8047-8165-6"]
[null,null,"Descrizione fisica",null,"1 online resource (192 p.)"]
[null,null,"Disciplina",null,"327.1273"]
[null,null,"Soggetti",null,"Intelligence service - United States"]
[{"$nulls":4},"National security - United States"]
[null,null,"Lingua di pubblicazione",null,"Inglese"]
[null,null,"Formato",null,"Materiale a stampa"]
[null,null,null,"Livello bibliografico","Monografia"]
[null,null,null,"Nota di bibliografia","Includes bibliographical references and index."]
[null,null,"Nota di contenuto",null,"Front matter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1. Reducing uncertainty -- 2. Myths, fears, and expectations -- 3. Spies collect data, analysts provide insight -- 4. Using intelligence to anticipate opportunities and shape the future -- 5. Estimative analysis: what it is, what it isn’t, and how to read it -- 6. A tale of two estimates -- 7. Epilogue: lessons and challenges -- Notes -- Index"]
[null,null,null,"Sommario/riassunto","The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A substantial portion of what we spend—over"]