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[null,"1.","Record Nr.",null,"UNINA9910459132403321"]
[null,null,"Autore",null,"Bendor Jonathan"]
[null,null,"Titolo",null,"Bounded rationality and politics [[electronic resource] /] / by Jonathan Bendor ... [et al.]"]
[null,null,"Pubbl/distr/stampa",null,"Berkeley, : University of California Press, c2010"]
[null,null,"ISBN",null,"1-282-77274-0"]
[{"$nulls":4},"9786612772740"]
[{"$nulls":4},"0-520-94551-4"]
[null,null,"Descrizione fisica",null,"1 online resource (248 p.)"]
[null,null,"Collana",null,"The Aaron Wildavsky forum for public policy ; ; 6"]
[null,null,"Disciplina",null,"320.01/9"]
[null,null,"Soggetti",null,"Decision making - Political aspects"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Organizational behavior - Political aspects"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Social sciences - Philosophy"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Electronic books."]
[null,null,"Lingua di pubblicazione",null,"Inglese"]
[null,null,"Formato",null,"Materiale a stampa"]
[null,null,null,"Livello bibliografico","Monografia"]
[null,null,null,"Note generali","Description based upon print version of record."]
[null,null,null,"Nota di bibliografia","Includes bibliographical references and index."]
[null,null,"Nota di contenuto",null,"Frontmatter -- Contents -- Figures -- Preface -- Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Herbert A. Simon -- Chapter 3. Satisficing -- Chapter 4. A Model of Muddling Through -- Chapter 5. The Perfect Is the Enemy of the Best -- Chapter 6. Garbage Can Theory -- Chapter 7. Institutions and Individuals -- Notes -- References -- Index"]
[null,null,null,"Sommario/riassunto","In Bounded Rationality and Politics, Jonathan Bendor considers two schools of behavioral economics-the first guided by Tversky and Kahneman's work on heuristics and biases, which focuses on the mistakes people make in judgment and choice; the second as described by Gerd Gigerenzer's program on fast and frugal heuristics, which emphasizes the effectiveness of simple rules of thumb. Finding each of these radically incomplete, Bendor's illuminating analysis proposes Herbert Simon's pathbreaking work on bounded rationality as a way to reconcile the inconsistencies between the two camps. Bendor shows that Simon's theory turns on the interplay between the cognitive constraints of decision makers and the complexity of their tasks."]
[null,"2.","Record Nr.",null,"UNINA9910957316903321"]
[null,null,"Titolo",null,"Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population / / Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council ; John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, editors"]
[null,null,"Pubbl/distr/stampa",null,"Washington, D.C., : National Academy Press, c2000"]
[null,null,"ISBN",null,"0-309-17202-0"]
[{"$nulls":4},"0-309-50497-X"]
[null,null,"Edizione",null,"[1st ed.]"]
[null,null,"Descrizione fisica",null,"xviii, 236 p. : ill"]
[null,null,"Disciplina",null,"304.6/2/0112"]
[null,null,"Soggetti",null,"Population forecasting"]
[null,null,"Lingua di pubblicazione",null,"Inglese"]
[null,null,"Formato",null,"Materiale a stampa"]
[null,null,null,"Livello bibliografico","Monografia"]
[null,null,null,"Note generali","\"The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.\""]
[null,null,null,"Nota di bibliografia","Includes bibliographical references and index."]
[null,null,"Nota di contenuto",null,"Cover -- Front Matter -- Preface -- Contents -- Tables and Figures -- Executive Summary -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Accuracy of Past Projections -- 3 Transitional Fertility -- 4 Posttransition Fertility -- 5 Mortality -- 6 International Migration -- 7 The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts -- Biographical Sketches -- Index -- APPENDIX A Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population -- APPENDIX B Accuracy of Population Projections from the 1970s to the 1990s -- APPENDIX C Predicting the Pace of Fertility Decline -- APPENDIX D The Effect of Projection Error in Life Expectancy -- APPENDIX E Simulating Migration Projections -- APPENDIX F Estimating Expected Errors from Past Errors."]
[null,null,null,"Sommario/riassunto","Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to "]
[{"$nulls":4},"low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations."]