LEADER 03957nam 22006734a 450 001 9910974606503321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a9780674039162 010 $a0674039165 024 7 $a10.4159/9780674039162 035 $a(CKB)1000000000786819 035 $a(OCoLC)435542327 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10314232 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000217153 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11197960 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000217153 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10202411 035 $a(PQKB)11687814 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3300223 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3300223 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10314232 035 $a(OCoLC)923109664 035 $a(DE-B1597)589746 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780674039162 035 $a(OCoLC)1322125707 035 $a(Perlego)1146953 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000786819 100 $a20040420d2004 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOverconfidence and war $ethe havoc and glory of positive illusions /$fDominic D.P. Johnson 210 $aCambridge, Mass. $cHarvard University Press$d2004 215 $a1 online resource (289 p.) 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9780674015760 311 08$a0674015762 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 239-269) and index. 327 $tFrontmatter -- $tContents -- $t1 War and Illusions -- $t2 Looking for Illusions -- $t3 World War I -- $t4 The Munich Crisis -- $t5 The Cuban Missile Crisis -- $t6 Vietnam -- $t7 Vanity Dies Hard -- $t8 Iraq, 2003 -- $tAppendix -- $tNotes -- $tAcknowledgments -- $tIndex 330 $aOpponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly. 606 $aWar$xPsychological aspects 606 $aWar$xCauses 606 $aMilitary history, Modern$y20th century 606 $aMilitary history, Modern$y21st century 615 0$aWar$xPsychological aspects. 615 0$aWar$xCauses. 615 0$aMilitary history, Modern 615 0$aMilitary history, Modern 676 $a355.02/7 700 $aJohnson$b Dominic D. 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