LEADER 04295nam 2200505 450 001 9910154691903321 005 20171020095313.0 010 $a0-8330-9159-X 035 $a(CKB)3710000000971739 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4769422 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000971739 100 $a20161227h20162016 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aWar with China $ethinking through the unthinkable /$fDavid C. Gompert, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Cristina L. Garafola 210 1$a[Santa Monica, California] :$cRAND Corporation,$d2016. 210 4$d©2016 215 $a1 online resource (117 pages) $cillustrations, tables 311 $a0-8330-9155-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $tPreface --$tFigures and Tables --$tSummary --$tAcknowledgments --$gChapter 1.$tIntroduction:$tPurpose --$tRationale --$tFactors Considered --$tHow This Report Is Organized --$gChapter 2.$tAnalytic Framework:$tU.S. and Chinese Thinking About War --$tVariables of War --$tUpper and Lower Limits --$gChapter 3.$tWeighing the Costs: Military, Economic, Political, and International :$tMilitary Losses --$tEconomic Costs --$tPolitical Effects --$tInternational Effects --$tThe Four Cases and Their Effects --$gChapter 4.$tFindings, Recommendations, and Concluding Observations:$tFindings --$tRecommendations --$tConcluding Observations --$tAPPENDIXES:$gA.$tMilitary Losses --$gB.$tEconomic Effects in the Severe Case, 2015 --$tAbbreviations --$tBibliography. 330 $a"Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored. Thus, while neither state wants war, both states' militaries have plans to fight one. As Chinese anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) capabilities improve, the United States can no longer be so certain that war would follow its plan and lead to decisive victory. This analysis illuminates various paths a war with China could take and their possible consequences. Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the other's forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first. This implies fierce early exchanges, with steep military losses on both sides, until one gains control. At present, Chinese losses would greatly exceed U.S. losses, and the gap would only grow as fighting persisted. But, by 2025, that gap could be much smaller. Even then, however, China could not be confident of gaining military advantage, which suggests the possibility of a prolonged and destructive, yet inconclusive, war. In that event, nonmilitary factors--economic costs, internal political effects, and international reactions--could become more important. Political leaders on both sides could limit the severity of war by ordering their respective militaries to refrain from swift and massive conventional counterforce attacks. The resulting restricted, sporadic fighting could substantially reduce military losses and economic harm. This possibility underscores the importance of firm civilian control over wartime decisionmaking and of communication between capitals. At the same time, the United States can prepare for a long and severe war by reducing its vulnerability to Chinese A2AD forces and developing plans to ensure that economic and international consequences would work to its advantage"--Back cover. 606 $aWar$xForecasting 606 $aAccess denial (Military science)$zChina 607 $aChina$xForeign relations$zUnited States 607 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zChina 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aWar$xForecasting. 615 0$aAccess denial (Military science) 676 $a355.020112 700 $aGompert$b David C.$0675666 702 $aCevallos$b Astrid Stuth 702 $aGarafola$b Cristina L. 712 02$aArroyo Center. 712 02$aUnited States.$bArmy, 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910154691903321 996 $aWar with China$92894522 997 $aUNINA LEADER 00935nam a2200277 i 4500 001 991000947969707536 005 20020507104238.0 008 940308s1966 us ||| | eng 035 $ab10152192-39ule_inst 035 $aLE00639597$9ExL 040 $aDip.to Fisica$bita 084 $a510(022:076) 084 $a510.02 084 $a510.60 100 1 $aLipschutz, Seymour$01221 245 10$aFinite mathematics :$bincluding 750 solved problems /$cS. 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