LEADER 00806nam a22002053a 4500 001 991003603169707536 008 080507s 000 0 eng d 020 $a0701144033 035 $ab13722724-39ule_inst 040 $aDip.to Lingue$bita 100 1 $aVan der Post, Laurens$0628439 245 10$aFeather Fall :$bAn Anthology /$cLaurens van der Post ; edited by Jean-Marc Pottiez ; assisted by Jane Bedford 260 $aLondon :$bChatto & Windus,$c1994 300 $axviii, 269 p. ;$c24 cm 907 $a.b13722724$b28-01-14$c07-05-08 912 $a991003603169707536 945 $aLE012 Fondo Commonwealth 1-7-01$g1$i2012000296848$lle012$o-$pE0.00$q-$rn$so $t0$u0$v0$w0$x0$y.i14744806$z07-05-08 996 $aFeather Fall$91230087 997 $aUNISALENTO 998 $ale012$b07-05-08$cm$da $e-$feng$genk$h0$i0 LEADER 08169nam 22008415 450 001 9910958875003321 005 20250806165504.0 010 $a94-011-0962-1 024 7 $a10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8 035 $a(CKB)3400000000121564 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001072865 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11706256 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001072865 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11139310 035 $a(PQKB)10007266 035 $a(DE-He213)978-94-011-0962-8 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3069979 035 $a(PPN)237930951 035 $a(EXLCZ)993400000000121564 100 $a20121227d1994 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#008mamaa 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPredictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics /$fedited by J. Grasman, G. van Straten 205 $a1st ed. 1994. 210 1$aDordrecht :$cSpringer Netherlands :$cImprint: Springer,$d1994. 215 $a1 online resource (IX, 653 p.) 300 $a"Papers presented at the International Conference on Predictability and Non-Linear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics, held at the occasion of the 75th anniversary of Wageningen Agricultural University ... 5-7 April 1993"--Pref. 311 0 $a94-010-4416-3 311 0 $a0-7923-2943-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $a1. Geophysics -- Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models -- Evaluation of forecasts -- The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill -- An improved formula to describe error growth in meteorological models -- Searching for periodic motions in long-time series -- Comparison study of the response of the climate system to major volcanic eruptions and el nino events -- Detection of a pertubed equator-pole temperature gradient in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation -- A simple two-dimensional climate model with ocean and atmosphere coupling -- Climate modelling at different scales of space -- 2. Agriculture -- Simulation of effects of climatic change on cauliflower production -- Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource populations: a case study -- Uncertainty of predictions in supervised pest control in winter wheat, its price and its causes -- The implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling the growth and development of wheat -- Growth curve analysis of sedentary plant parasitic nematodes in relation to plant resistance and tolerance -- 3. Population Biology -- Using chaos to understand biological dynamics -- Qualitative analysis of unpredictability: a case study from childhood epidemics -- Control and prediction in seasonally driven population models -- Simple theoretical models and population predictions -- Individual based population modelling -- Ecological systems are not dynamical systems: some consequences of individual variability -- Spatio-temporal organization mediated by hierarchy in time scales in ensembles of predator-prey pairs -- Continental expansion of plant disease: a survey of some recent results -- Modelling of fish behavior -- 4. Systems sciences -- Understanding uncertain environmental systems -- System identification by approximate realization -- Sensitivity analysis versus uncertainty analysis: when to use what? -- Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources -- Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models: a critical evaluation -- UNCSAM: a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models -- Set-membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models -- Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions -- Towards a metrics for simulation model validation -- Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling -- Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations -- An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems -- 5. Environmental Sciences -- Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery -- Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland -- Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment -- Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation -- Bayesian uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling -- Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale -- Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models -- Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined: application to a bioaccumulation model -- Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals -- Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads -- Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE -- 6. Economics -- Forecast uncertainty in economics -- Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics -- Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick?s nonlinear trade cycle model -- Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models -- Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods -- Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model: a numerical investigation -- Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integrated autoregressions -- Classical and modified resealed range analysis: some evidence. 330 $aResearchers in the natural sciences are faced with problems that require a novel approach to improve the quality of forecasts of processes that are sensitive to environmental conditions. Nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states: a small variation of parameters can dramatically change the dynamics, while sensitive dependence of the initial state may severely limit the predictability horizon. Uncertainties also play a role. This volume addresses such problems by using tools from chaos theory and systems theory, adapted for the analysis of problems in the environmental sciences. Sensitive dependence on the initial state (chaos) and the parameters are analyzed using methods such as Lyapunov exponents and Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in the structure and the values of parameters of a model is studied in relation to processes that depend on the environmental conditions. These methods also apply to biology and economics. For research workers at universities and (semi)governmental institutes for the environment, agriculture, ecology, meteorology and water management, and theoretical economists. 606 $aMathematical models 606 $aEcology 606 $aEngineering mathematics 606 $aEngineering$xData processing 606 $aSystem theory 606 $aControl theory 606 $aAtmospheric science 606 $aBotany 606 $aMathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics 606 $aEnvironmental Sciences 606 $aMathematical and Computational Engineering Applications 606 $aSystems Theory, Control 606 $aAtmospheric Science 606 $aPlant Science 615 0$aMathematical models. 615 0$aEcology. 615 0$aEngineering mathematics. 615 0$aEngineering$xData processing. 615 0$aSystem theory. 615 0$aControl theory. 615 0$aAtmospheric science. 615 0$aBotany. 615 14$aMathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics. 615 24$aEnvironmental Sciences. 615 24$aMathematical and Computational Engineering Applications. 615 24$aSystems Theory, Control. 615 24$aAtmospheric Science. 615 24$aPlant Science. 676 $a003 701 $aGrasman$b Johan$0534725 701 $aStraten$b G. van$g(Gerrit van),$f1946-$01846323 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910958875003321 996 $aPredictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics$94430582 997 $aUNINA