LEADER 00743nam0-22002891i-450- 001 990000491700403321 005 20071025123055.0 035 $a000049170 035 $aFED01000049170 035 $a(Aleph)000049170FED01 035 $a000049170 100 $a20020821d1947----km-y0itay50------ba 101 0 $aeng 105 $aa-------001yy 200 1 $aElectronics$fF. G. Spreadbury 210 $aLondon$cPitman$d1947 215 $a698 p.$cill.$d22 cm 610 0 $aElettronica 676 $a537.5 700 1$aSpreadbury,$bFrank George$0299605 801 0$aIT$bUNINA$gRICA$2UNIMARC 901 $aBK 912 $a990000491700403321 952 $a10 E I 18$b2820$fDINEL 959 $aDINEL 996 $aElectronics$9333053 997 $aUNINA LEADER 02732nam 2200445 450 001 996466736303316 005 20211028155408.0 010 $a981-336-416-5 024 7 $a10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5 035 $a(CKB)4100000011758601 035 $a(DE-He213)978-981-33-6416-5 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6476937 035 $a(PPN)253857635 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000011758601 100 $a20210330d2021 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#008mamaa 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aCOVID-19 pandemic dynamics $emathematical simulations /$fIgor Nesteruk 205 $a1st ed. 2021. 210 1$aGateway East, Singapore :$cSpringer,$d[2021] 210 4$dİ2021 215 $a1 online resource (XII, 172 p. 77 illus., 46 illus. in color.) 311 $a981-336-415-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aIntroduction -- Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications -- Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations -- Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions -- Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics -- Conclusions. 330 $aThis book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics. . 606 $aCOVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- 615 0$aCOVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- 676 $a362.1962414 700 $aNesteruk$b Igor$01220945 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a996466736303316 996 $aCOVID-19 pandemic dynamics$92830453 997 $aUNISA