LEADER 01288nas 2200409- 450 001 996321773903316 005 20200205062322.2 011 $a2614-3178 035 $a(OCoLC)1076384201 035 $a(CKB)4100000005880219 035 $a(CONSER)--2019252437 035 $a(DE-599)ZDB2943258-3 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000005880219 100 $a20181029a20149999 --- - 101 0 $aind 135 $aurunu|||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aActa Aquatica $eaquatic sciences journal 210 1$aBanda Aceh :$cInstitute of Research and Community Service (LPPM) Universitas Malikussaleh,$d2014- 215 $a1 online resource 300 $aRefereed/Peer-reviewed 311 $a2406-9825 517 1 $aAquatic sciences journal 531 1 $aActa Aquatica 606 $aAquatic sciences$zIndonesia$vPeriodicals 606 $aAquatic sciences$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00812097 607 $aIndonesia$2fast 608 $aPeriodicals.$2fast 615 0$aAquatic sciences 615 7$aAquatic sciences. 712 02$aUniversitas Malikussaleh.$bLembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat, 906 $aJOURNAL 912 $a996321773903316 996 $aActa Aquatica$92009285 997 $aUNISA LEADER 04251nam 2200637Ia 450 001 9910812447203321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-1741-3 010 $a9786612844492 010 $a1-4518-7399-9 010 $a1-282-84449-0 010 $a1-4527-5409-8 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055384 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942102 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11502221 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942102 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10971989 035 $a(PQKB)11787770 035 $a(OCoLC)680613649 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009252 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605967 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055384 100 $a20100317d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMacroeconomic patterns and monetary policy in the run-up to asset price busts /$fprepared by Prakash Kannan, Pau Rabanal, and Alasdair Scott 205 $a1st ed. 210 $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Research Dept.$d2009 215 $a39 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/252 300 $a"November 2009". 311 $a1-4519-1813-5 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Asset Price Busts in the Modern Era -- A. Defining Asset Price Busts -- B. Patterns in macroeconomic Variables in the Run-Up to a Bust -- III. How Good are These Variables as Indicators of Asset Price Busts? -- IV. Macroeconomic Patterns Ahead of the Current Crisis -- A. The Role of Monetary Policy -- V. Conclusion -- References -- Data Appendix -- Tables -- 1. House Price and Stock Price Busts from 1970 to 2008 -- 2. Classification of Observations Based on variable Thresholds -- 3. Percentiles Used as Thresholds for Alarms -- 4. Marginal Probabilities Based on Probit Regressions -- Figures -- 1. Asset Price Busts -- 2. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts -- 3. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts -- 4. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During High-Cost and Other House Price Busts, 1985-2008 -- 5. The Probability of an Asset Price Bust -- 6. The Failure of the Indicators to Predict an Asset Price Bust -- 7. Recent Developments in House and Stock Prices -- 8. Warning Signs for Recent House Price Busts -- 9. Macroeconomic Patterns Underlying Recent House Price Booms -- 10. Recent House Price Booms and Household Balance Sheets -- 11. Monetary Conditions Leading up to the Current Crisis -- 12. Inflation and Output for Advnaced Economies in Recent Years -- 13. House Prices and Monetary Conditions -- 14. Stock Prices and Monetary Conditions -- 15. Growth Rate of Nominal Credit Relative to GDP and Real Policy Rates -- 16. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts -- 17. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts. 330 3 $aWe find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators of asset price busts. These patterns could also be observed in the build-up to the current crisis. Monetary policy was not the main, systematic cause of the current crisis. But, with inflation typically under control, central banks effectively accommodated these growing imbalances, raising the risk of damaging busts. 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/252. 606 $aAssets (Accounting)$xPrices 606 $aMacroeconomics 606 $aMonetary policy 615 0$aAssets (Accounting)$xPrices. 615 0$aMacroeconomics. 615 0$aMonetary policy. 676 $a339.53091724 700 $aKannan$b Prakash$01606917 701 $aRabanal$b Pau$01627816 701 $aScott$b Alasdair$01643722 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910812447203321 996 $aMacroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts$94017610 997 $aUNINA